Anaheim Ducks: Looking Towards The Seattle Expansion Draft
The impending Expansion Draft might be two summers away, but it’s not too early for the Anaheim Ducks to start mapping out a plan of action. Who should they protect and who should they expose?
You’ve no doubt heard that the Anaheim Ducks are due for a rebuild. After being amongst the top teams for over half a decade, the curtain is being drawn upon their Stanley Cup dreams, at least for the moment.
Rebuilds, or re-tools, to use the modern lexicon, are often fraught with danger and risk. Look towards the Edmonton Oilers who floundered their way through what felt like a decade long rebuild, selecting the #1 overall pick again and again, before finally getting out of their own way long enough to luck into Connor McDavid. While the Oilers are a worst-case scenario that critics of bottoming out may use in the same way that critics of clean energy criticize nuclear power plants, it does highlight that building a team from the very bottom can be an arduous task. Yet, this is a path the Ducks will soon have to take.
A further wrinkle for the Anaheim Ducks in their bid to build a team that can once more take them back to relevance amongst the league’s giants is the upcoming Expansion Draft which is scheduled for June 2021. At this time, the city of Seattle will begin to play host to an NHL team. An NHL team, that will also play in the Ducks’ Pacific Division.
Certainly, many things can happen with that two-year time frame, however, planning should begin now if it hasn’t already begun. The players the Anaheim Ducks deem surplus to needs, will be a topic of discussion as the draft draws closer. Particularly given the events surrounding the relatively recent Expansion Draft in which the Vegas Golden Knights came into the league.
Looking back to that draft see’s the Ducks giving up talented young defenceman, Shea Theodore, so that Golden Knights would take Clayton Stoner‘s contract off their hands. This move allowed the Ducks to protect Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, Hampus Lindholm, and Sami Vatanen, while keeping a similarly young talented defenceman, Brandon Montour, in the fold. Fast forward a few years later until today and the Ducks are short a number of top defencemen after Vatanen and Montour were also traded away.
The Anaheim Ducks will want to ensure that this time around they maintain the strengths that they have. Yet, the situation is different. Back then, the Ducks were on the tail end of being a Conference Final, Stanley Cup, contender, filled with talent across their line-up. Fast forward 2 years, and it is very likely the Ducks will be immersed in a rebuild, and talent will be in short supply, but ‘potential’ could be everywhere. So, given the state of play today, who will they try to protect then?
Rules for the Expansion Draft
The expansion rules for the Seattle draft will be as they were for the Vegas Expansion Draft, back in the summer of 2017. The Seattle team (still to be named) will choose one player from each current NHL team. Of these players, 20 must be under contract for the 2021-2022 regular season and must fill somewhere in the range of 60-100% of the 2020-2021 salary cap. They cannot buy out players earlier than the summer of their first regular season, which is to say, that they cannot take on an onerous contract and immediately buy it out.
However, that doesn’t necessarily pertain to the Anaheim Ducks. While the Ducks do have several long-term contracts on their books, few are actively going to inhibit them from embarking upon a rebuild. Thus, what does matter to them?
The Ducks will have to choose between two categories of player protection: 1) protecting seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie, or; 2) eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie.
Naturally, there are clauses and provisions to these selections. These are as follows:
- All players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) at the time of the draft, who elect not to waive their rights to those clauses, must be protected. They will be counted towards the teams’ protection limits.
Fans will recall the discussions around Kevin Bieksa prior to the Vegas draft. At the time many fans simply believed he would waive his rights he had deliberately included in his contract, just because Bob Murray asked him to. In the end, the Ducks elected to protect Bieksa, although it is unknown if he was asked to waive his NMC at that time.
- All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from the selection draft process. Teams will be able to “protect” them, and they will not count towards the protection limits.
This means that current prospects such as Sam Steel, Troy Terry, and Max Jones, will not automatically be protected, while Benoit-Oliver Groulx, Max Comtois, and Trevor Zegras will be.
To add further wrinkles to the process, the Anaheim Ducks must also ensure that they fulfill the following requirements on who they do expose for selection:
- One defenseman who is 1) under contract in 2021-2022, and 2) has played in at least 40 NHL games in the 2020-2021 or 70 combined games over the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons.
- Two forwards who are 1) under contract in 2021-2022, and 2) have played in at least 40 NHL games in the 2020-2021 or 70 combined games over the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons.
- One goalie who is under contract in 2021-2022, or who is a restricted free agent (RFA) eligible for a new contract leading into the 2021-2022 season. If the Ducks chose to allow an RFA netminder to be available to the Seattle team, that goalie must receive a qualifying offer prior to the Ducks submitting their protected players’ list to the NHL.
- Players with potential career-ending injuries, and who have missed the previous 60 consecutive games (or have been confirmed to have career-ending injuries) may not be made available to the Seattle team without the NHL’s permission. These players may also not count towards the Ducks protection limits.
As we move forward with this article we will visit the question: who should the Anaheim Ducks protect and who should they expose?
Goaltending
Even before delving deep into who the Anaheim Ducks should and shouldn’t protect, one glaring flaw is that the Ducks do not at present have a netminder that they can, or rather should expose to the Seattle team. Although there are some paths open to them depending on what the Ducks may wish to do.
Firstly, John Gibson is almost the messiah of netminders and those who watched his robbery against the Arizona Coyotes the other night might be hard-pressed to argue that he cannot walk on water and turn water into wine, himself. It seems very unlikely that Gibson would be exposed. His back up, Ryan Miller, on the other hand, is not signed through that time period and thus at present would not be eligible for the expansion draft.
Given Miller’s age, it seems likely that he would not wish to sign a contract for that long of a term given that he and his family could be moved if he did so. If he is still going and still wants to play for the Anaheim Ducks, then the Ducks merely have to wait until after the expansion draft and sign Miller to another contract as an unrestricted free agent (UFA). Taken together, it seems likely that the Ducks current NHL netminders will not be part of the expansion draft plans.
Anthony Stolarz or Trading Young Assets
Thus, we filter down to the AHL and junior levels. Anthony Stolarz, presently the San Diego Gulls netminder in the AHL, is set to be a UFA just prior to the expansion draft. He will be 28 at that point in time and could potentially be extended if the Ducks wanted to keep him around. It would be extremely unlikely that he would be the selection, thus, the Ducks should be very clear that they wanted him to continue on as the Gulls netminder and 3rd string NHL call up. This is a plausible outcome and may very well be the path of least resistance for the Ducks. The Gulls keep an under-30-year-old netminder they would be familiar with, and the Ducks satisfy the expansion draft requirements.
After Stolarz, however, the Ducks run dry in a sense. Olle Eriksson-Ek and Lukas Dostal, both of whom have had tremendous careers to date, are potentially the future of the Anaheim crease. Both players will be still under contract, and due for an extension as RFA’s at the end of the 2021-2022 season, however, they are not eligible to be taken in the expansion draft.
As much as the Ducks would love to keep both of this duo about the club, and would be loath to give them up when they don’t have to, the Seattle franchise would equally like to get their hands on one of them. If the Ducks offer one up, they are an almost certainty to be taken. Particularly Dostal, who has had an absolutely phenomenal season this year, and looks to only get better.
However, exposing one of these players may also open up some options for the Ducks. There is a small chance that the Ducks may be able to wring some concessions out of the new franchise. Perhaps, in exchange for exposing one of the young netminders, the Seattle club can take on a contract the Ducks no longer desire, and/or leave other players who may be exposed well enough alone.
Similar to Shae Theodore being traded to the Golden Knights, so that they would take Clayton Stoner and leave some of their prime aged defencemen alone. It is at least something the Ducks could consider, especially if it looks like Gibson is going to continue to be the man in the Ducks net for the foreseeable future. The outlook, of course, changes if injuries occur, but at present, and without that caveat, Gibson deserves to hold the franchise tag and be here at least until the end of his current contract. If not longer, hockey gods be willing.
Sign and then Expose
The other option for the Ducks is to sign another netminder for the only purpose of exposing them to the expansion draft. Doing so should require the Ducks to balance that fine line of wanting to have a player to expose, but also recognizing that they are unlikely to be selected and thus needing to keep them on the team as a backup or 3rd string netminder.
Who is on offer over the next few years will dictate this, as will Ryan Miller’s desires. If Miller wants to keep going, then all of the above remain options. If, or given his age, when, Miller retires, then plans will change and the Ducks will need to acquire a backup. This player will be the one exposed to the draft. Who it maybe is wide open for debate.
However, for the sake of the article, we’ll assume that the Ducks protect Gibson and give up Stolarz.
Protect: John Gibson
Expose: Anthony Stolarz
Defensemen
The Anaheim Ducks have done a good job of dismantling a young defensive unit that was once considered one of the best in the league. Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Sami Vatanen, and Marcus Pettersson were all traded away. Simon Despres was lost to injury. The remaining players of the Ducks much-vaunted drafting are Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson.
Fowler and Manson will each be in their 30’s when the first expansion draft selection is to be made. Lindholm will be 28. Yet, the Ducks have very few defensive prospects which are likely to take over and wear their giant-sized skates. Jacob Larsson is currently in the NHL, and while he appears to be a steady 3rd pairing skater, the upside to move into a top-pairing role is not there. Josh Mahura is another player who has seen limited NHL time, and while he has impressed, it does not look like he’ll be securing a top pairing role. Thus, the Ducks need to protect Fowler, Lindholm, and Manson.
Of the other present-day NHL group, Erik Gudbranson has had a miniature career resurgence in the eyes of the fans. Currently, Gudbranson is putting up the 3rd best Corsi numbers of his career, and perhaps more importantly, the highest points per game of his career (0.69 per game). It is also one of his best seasons ever for goal prevention – currently, in his 10th season, only 4 have seen better defense. The Ducks will have all of next season to decide whether Gudbranson’s current level of play is sustainable and whether, at 30 years of age, he’ll be a player they foresee moving forward with into the future.
Korbinian Holzer and Michael Del Zotto are veterans on the current roster, their contracts end prior to the expansion draft, and this will not be part of the equation. There is perhaps a small chance that these players will be extending their time in Anaheim, however, they will not be protected, and they will not be selected by the Seattle club.
Jacob Larsson, Brendan Guhle, and Josh Mahura round out the other players who the Ducks may consider holding onto. All three are young and would fit into the age bracket of a team looking to rebuild. However, none of the three looks, at least at present, to be the type of player that requires a protection slot in an expansion draft. That isn’t to say the Anaheim Ducks would like to lose them, and in fact with so few defensive prospects, and such a thin NHL blue line, I’m very certain that they would love to keep them.
However, in the end, it may come down to which players they like more. The young forwards that are currently on the roster, or these young defencemen. Given these defencemen do not look like being 1st pairing players, and the relative ease in the league of finding 2nd and 3rd pairing defencemen, it would be likely that these young players are left exposed with the potential to be taken in the draft.
Protect: Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson
Expose: Erik Gudbranson, Korbinian Holzer, Michael Del Zotto, Jacob Larsson, Josh Mahura, Brendan Guhle
Forwards
Amongst the forward group, however, the competition is much for fierce for those elusive protection spots. Although it is very likely the lay of the land will change in the seasons leading into the expansion draft, as the current team leaders age and slow down, and the youth movement of today picks up steam. There are no NMC’s to worry about (Ryan Getzlaf‘s current deal will expire prior to the draft), and very few players who deserve an absolute, no questions asked expansion slot.
Getzlaf himself occupies one of these slots. Whether he maintains his form or not, the natives will grow restless and riot at the gates of Honda Center should Bob Murray extend his contract only to let him go to an expansion team. We’ve all had our doubts about at least one of Murray’s decisions, it is the NHL and it just wouldn’t be right if the General Manager didn’t make at least one mind-bogglingly poor decision. This decision, however, is an easy one. If Getzlaf is on the Anaheim Ducks at the time the draft list needs to be submitted, he will be protected.
Rickard Rakell is not quite the automatically protected player Getzlaf is, however, as the sole under-30, 50 point producer on the roster, his place is assured. Rakell will be 28 at the time of the draft, and very much exiting his prime, however, he is still young enough to matter to rebuilding and/or contending team. The Ducks will want to keep him around.
Not Everyone Can be Protected
From here, however, list management becomes more difficult. Of the more experienced players who may be expected to command a protection spot, Ondrej Kase, Daniel Sprong, Nick Ritchie, Jakob Silfverberg, and Adam Henriqueare all available. A further wrinkle in the weave is the Anaheim Ducks’ recent first-round draft picks Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, Sam Steel, and former 5th round selection, Troy Terry, are available. Assuming the Anaheim Ducks only protect three defencemen, along with Getzlaf and Rakell, there are only five more protection spots available for the forwards.
At present, based on production, Jakob Silfverberg and Adam Henrique would be sewing up protection slots. However, life isn’t always that easy. In two years’ time, both players will be over 30 years of age and far closer to slowing down than ramping up. The Anaheim Ducks will have to make the call whether they believe these two players will continue to be productive leading into the back halves of there contracts.
However, what about future production? With two seasons to go before the expansion draft, we will almost certainly find out whether the current youth movement is going to be worth its salt. Will Steel live up the potential he showed in flashes during his junior career? Will Terry develop into the player the hype train had him pegged to be? Will Lundestrom grow into a top 6 player, or is he destined for a third-line role as was projected at the NHL draft? These are naturally things that we will find out as time goes on. Decisions don’t necessarily have to be made on all of them at this point in time.
However, not all players are likely to be in the Ducks future. Ondrej Kase has already been dangled this season (the Justin Faulk trade), and is struggling mightily to score in Dallas Eakins free-range offensive “system.” It could be that the Ducks move on from him before the draft comes around. Nevertheless, should he remain on the roster, it will be tough to let him simply be claimed. As a fan favorite, and with the ability he showed in his spin-o-rama assist against the Arizona Coyotes, he is one of the few present forwards who are worth the price of admission. It would be a coin flip to know what Murray would do, however, I believe that Kase gets a protection spot.
Nick Ritchie has also fallen away from the improvement and growth he’s shown in the two seasons prior to this one. Given his role this season, it appears the Anaheim Ducks see him as an enforcer and a grinder rather than the power forward scorer that he was once thought to be. It was only recently, that the coach made some rather scathing comments about him, even though he had just played in his first game back and had scored in that game.
While it will be disappointing to let a former top 10 pick go, bottom-six grinders are not the players that teams should be using a valuable protection spot to protect. It would almost certainly be in the Ducks’ best interest to move Ritchie prior to the draft, however, he will be 26 years old at the time of the draft, and he may be used as bait to hide some of the other forwards on the list. That is, of course, if he can pick up his play.
As bottom-six enforcers aren’t worthy of protection spots, neither are AHL players. Unfortunately, Daniel Sprong’s career has seemingly stalled under the current coaching regime. Largely being regulated to the AHL, Sprong has seen his scoring output decline by 37.5% (points per game) and his goal-scoring decline by 56.7% (goals per game) when he has been given NHL time. With Coach Eakins likely to remain at the helm of the Anaheim Ducks team, at least until sometime through next season, it seems unlikely that Sprong will be given a significant role going forward.
It’s disappointing for fans to see one of their favorites shunted away, however, due to this, we know that he will not be in the organizations’ future plans. It would, of course, be best if the Ducks could trade him away and recoup an asset for him. However, if he is on the Ducks roster at the time of the expansion draft, he will absolutely be left exposed for Seattle to take.
Decisions about the Ducklings
Thus, with Ritchie and Sprong likely to be left aside, a decision only has to be made on the current group of four youngsters. Troy Terry has been hyped beyond compare by fans to such an extent that one wondered if he was to be the next Alexander Ovechkin. While the wheels have fallen off that particular hype train, he is still likely to be kept as he is very clearly a favorite of the current coaching group. Few other players have gotten as much top-line time-on-ice as Terry while producing so little. At some stage, his offense will either catch up to the ice time, or he’ll be shuffled to another line. Either way, it seems likely that he’ll be kept.
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Max Jones is my personal favorite of the younger players. Fast and strong, he’s like a bull that needs uncaging. Yet, his production has not performed up to what the Anaheim Ducks may have hoped back when they drafted him. Most often used in an energy role on the lower lines, Jones doesn’t appear to be in the Ducks’ top-six plans for the future. Like Ritchie above, a third liner is not worth spending a valuable protection slot upon. Thus as of today, Jones is on the outside looking in. I, personally, have faith that Jones will begin to produce and earn his protection slot, however, until that day he will be considered as exposed to the Seattle machine.
Like Jones and Ritchie, Lundestrom appears to be more or less a third-line player on the Ducks. This is in line with his draft predictions, and he’s shown very little to indicate he has the ability to become a top-six scorer. He is Swedish, however, and that always seems to factor into Bob Murrays thinking, for better or for worse. Still, that will have to be measured against the productivity of other players such as Henrique and Silfverberg.
In the end, I believe that if Lundestrom does not increase his scoring output that he will be a necessary expense for the Ducks to keep hold of Silfverberg. Whether that call is the correct one or not, is up for debate, yet for today, I think this decision leads to Silfverberg being protected, and Lundestrom being exposed as a result of that.
Sam Steel will absolutely command a protection slot. As one of the few Ducks prospects that looks like he may be capable of playing in a top-six role, if only for brief periods of time, he is an invaluable resource they will not want to get rid of. With the Ducks letting Lundestrom go, the Ducks will also want to ensure they have center depth for when Getzlaf eventually hangs up his skates. Trevor Zegras is one, and Benoit-Olivier Groulx may potentially be another. Although Groulx appears to be third-line pivot more than a top-six scoring option, which is yet another reason to let Lundestrom go.
With Steel wrapped up, there remains one spot open. The Ducks at their heart are a budget team and almost require playoff revenue to continue running high salary teams out on the ice. Henrique may not be the high scorer they truly need, however, he is at present a lock for 40 points, which is far more than what other players look like giving. He is also a fan favorite, for one reason or another, thus the Ducks protect him in the draft and roll the dice hoping beyond hope that he will continue to perform for the remainder of his contract.
Protect: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell, Ondrej Kase, Troy Terry, Jakob Silfverberg, Sam Steel, Adam Henrique
Expose: Nick Ritchie, Daniel Sprong, Isac Lundestrom, Max Jones
Trying to Make the Expansion Draft as Painless as Possible
All in all, there are a few moves that the Anaheim Ducks could and probably should make. The path of least resistance is to trade away the players they think are good players but who are not in the Ducks plans going forward after the draft. Nick Ritchie is one that comes to mind, so too is Daniel Sprong. However, if the Ducks are truly unsure they could always dangle one of their prized young netminders for the Seattle team. It would seem reasonable that the Ducks cannot keep all of the netminders, as there simply isn’t enough room for Gibson, Dostal, and Ericksson-Ek to coexist.
Given the usual precarious nature of trading goaltenders and the minimal return for trading them, it may be that the Ducks’ most lucrative return with the players they already have. Thus, while I think it is unlikely, the Ducks best move may be to trade Ericksson-Ek or Dostal to the Seattle team for a back of the draft, draft selection, and have them pick up one of the other veteran players on the roster that they don’t see in their future plans.
It may hurt, however, there are very few paths available in which the Anaheim Ducks walk away unwounded. Of course, this is all two years away, and perhaps forward planning is not required. Winging it is the Anaheim Ducks way, after all.
Defending Head Coach Dallas Eakins. dark. Next
Those who wish to play around with potential rosters for the new expansion team may visit capfriendly.com and use the tool they’ve provided. Keeping in mind that rosters will certainly change between now and then.