Anaheim Ducks: It’s Time for the Franchise to Make a Hard Decision

Just 17 games into the season, it could be time for the Anaheim Ducks to make a very hard franchise-altering decision.

Alright Anaheim Ducks fans, it’s time for us to chat. Yes, I know it’s only been 17 games. It is, of course, the smallest of samples. I recognize this. I embrace it. But it’s time. Time to talk trade…. and to find a new Coach…. and a fresh General Manager. But, I digress.

Why do the Anaheim Ducks need a trade, you might ask? Well to be blunt, this is a team that is currently overreaching its underlying statistics. That is to say, that while they’ve won games, they’ve not really taken control of games and have instead been on the back foot through most of them. Some might suggest that this is taking advantage of their one true strength, John Gibson. Others may be justifiably worried.

After all, this team is 24th for positive shot attempts, and 29th overall for shot attempts against. They’re giving up the 25th most scoring chances, yet they’re merely scrapping into the middle of the pack (18th) for generating them. The accumulated effect of not taking shots, and having the “Godtender” in net, is that they have the 6th highest PDO in the league. That is to say that the Ducks accumulated shooting percentage and save percentage is currently the 6th highest in the league. With those gaudy totals, they’re currently managing to scrap into 6th in their Division with the league’s 20th best points percentage.

Statistics like these are how you make John Gibson sad. Do you want John Gibson to be sad? No? Then don’t do these things. Perhaps more concerning for Gibson’s mental health – and let’s be real here, all of ours as well – is that all of these statistics are currently trending towards the negative. The Anaheim Ducks are getting worse, not better. They’re already overachieving according to the product they’re producing on the ice, and that product is currently in decline. Certainly, injuries have played a part. Yet, that was the case last season as well. Weren’t we led to believe that this year would be different? Weren’t the injured guys all gone? Wasn’t Dallas Eakins a superior coach that knew the kid’s names?

Lack of Discipline is not Ideal for a Team with Subpar Special Teams

Obviously, with the subpar results that they have accrued, there are some fundamental issues within the team. Firstly, special teams are anemic. Let’s start with the penalty kill. Ranked 14th in the league, with one of the best netminders in the world backstopping it, the porous nature of this unit has to be concerning for the Ducks. Particularly in the light of the increasing number of penalties being taken by the Ducks skaters.

Already this season they’ve increased their penalty minutes by ~50 seconds per game over last season, but they’re already a third of the way towards their bench totals, and a quarter towards their majors. Nick Ritchie‘s game misconduct has them halfway to that total as well. This is not a well-disciplined team and with mainstays of the penalty box, Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa, and Corey Perry, no longer with the team, the fault has to lay at the feet of the coach. Particularly the increase in the bench infractions.

Perhaps, there is a case to be made in three parts here: 1.) The Ducks could use some penalty killers who are somewhat better at preventing goal-scoring. 2.) The Ducks could move the players taking the most penalties and acquire players who possess the puck more, thus cutting down their minor infractions. 3.) Hire a coach who is capable of correcting the systemic errors which may be occurring while short-handed.

Perhaps more important than goal prevention, given the Anaheim Ducks are currently the 6th ranked team for goals allowed per game, is goal scoring. Wallowing near the bottom of the table, the Ducks offense has been largely run by aging veterans, while getting little-to-no support from the highly touted youth movement. The premier disappointment has to be the 30th ranked power-play unit. However, this disappointing special teams is merely an extension of what is apparent at even strength as well.

The Veterans Cannot Carry the Load Forever

Currently,  the Anaheim Ducks have several players sitting on sky-high shooting percentages. Carter Rowney, Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, all sit on shooting percentages above 20%. Max Comtois and Ryan Getzlaf are not far behind them. The next highest scoring players are all defencemen that are unlikely to maintain their shooting percentages above 10% given that, last season, only 7 players shot above that mark and played more than 5 games.

Certainly, Erik Gudbranson could have become an offensive juggernaut, and if you believe that, I have some excellent real estate that you may also be interested in purchasing. On the flip side of the coin, there certainly should be some give in Nick Ritchie’s, Rickard Rakell and Ondrej Kase’s shooting, yet that is still a small number of players improving to those falling away. In short, the Ducks need goal scorer’s in a bad way. So, what is to give?

Once again, the caveat is that it’s merely a 17-game sample. However, some would suggest that the new head coach Dallas Eakins was brought in to coach a group of young players he “knew” from his AHL days. That his calling card was the offense he would unleash. The concern that his coaching stint in Edmonton— one of the worst in the expansion era— was washed away under the premise that he was hungry, and that he’d learned a few things.

However, it is also true that the current group of youngsters doesn’t look particularly awe-inspiring. At least as potential scorers. Let’s disregard Max Comtois 5 points in 11 games for a moment, partially due to him being on a very streaky high shooting percentage, and partially due to his lack of contact with Eakins in the past.

He may be one of the few bright spots in scoring development that the Anaheim Ducks have. Although, it is worth noting that with a 106.4% PDO he is likely to regress some as the season continues. Nonetheless, he should remain outside of trade discussion. At least until the return is significant anyway.

The players who have had the most contact with Eakins, appear to be the ones most snake bitten. Troy Terry is scoring at a rate close enough to league average (~9.1%), yet Max Jones’s shot appears to hone in on the netminder’s chest logo, and Sam Steel hasn’t seen a puck he can’t bobble. However, this goes further back. Nick Ritchie entered the NHL looking lost and inept on the ice. He was out of shape of course, but more importantly, he looked as if he didn’t know where to go. Jacob Larsson initially played a few games in the NHL and looked like a stud. After being sent down for seasoning, it’s four seasons later and he doesn’t look like a shadow of that player he once may have been.

Instead, it’s been the player group who has had the least contact with Eakins in the past who have carried the load. As one might expect, the veteran players are leading the charge. This isn’t necessarily a major issue, as one expects the veteran players to outperform young players of middling skill. There is no shame in being a role player in the most difficult league in the world to play in. Yet, the Ducks youth weren’t advertised as role players, and more as potential stars. The future was bright.

Troy Terry Could be Considered as Trade Bait

I would argue that the future could be bright. If, and only if, the correct moves are made. Perhaps it’s time to be brave. Troy Terry is only 22, yet he has played in parts of three NHL seasons. He has not found a scoring touch, yet his perceived value is high. The question should be asked if his actual value is going to match his perceived value, and if it does not, then he could be a potential trade asset.

As a comparison, it is worth noting that Terry is currently ranked 9th amongst Anaheim forwards for Corsi attempts. However, that same result would have him ranked 31st amongst this season’s rookie class (forwards only.) His expected goals for ranks 14th amongst the Ducks forwards, and 35th amongst this season’s rookies. Similarly, his expected goals against would rank him ~35th amongst rookie forwards. Those figures are all fine, but they’re not screaming “star.” Particularly, given this, is his third (partial) season in the NHL, versus rookie classes, very first season. Is it time to consider throwing Terry out as trade bait?

Certainly, his calling card was always as a playmaker, rather than a scorer. However, is that what the Anaheim Ducks need? Last season, the Ducks drafted the highly touted Trevor Zegras. A magnificent playmaker in his own right and one which plays an arguably more important on-ice position. They have that kind of skill coming in future seasons.

At present, there are several playmaking forwards in the group, but very few genuine goal scorers. Thus far, Terry has been paired with Ryan Getzlaf, and then, more recently, alongside his former AHL linemates Sam Steel and Max Jones. Steel, like Getzlaf, is more of a playmaker than a shooter. It would seem that if a line construction of a playmaker, a shooter, and a puck retriever, were to be constructed, Terry would be without a home in the top 9 forward group.

Sam Steel’s Struggles Could Make Him a Trade Candidate

Alternatively, could Steel be the one superfluous to needs? While he’s certainly looked good on the power play, that has not been consolidated into much of anything on the score sheet in that aspect of play. Although it should be stated his 5 assists are not nothing. Whether or not those 5 assists, the majority of which have been secondary (in fact all of the even-strength assists have been secondary), are enough to counter his high penalty rates is up for debate.

Given the poor penalty killing the Anaheim Ducks have suffered from, it could be considered that Steel is, in effect, a net negative at this stage of his career, though he certainly shows more potential as a playmaker than his predecessor on this list, Troy Terry. It should be noted that Steel did shoot ~18% from the field last season, so some regression was bound to occur. It’s likely over time his shooting stabilizes somewhere between that, and the 0% that he’s currently showing.

With all of that said, Steel plays an important position as the center iceman. His pedigree through junior was spotty at times due to injury and other factors, yet when he was on the ice he produced in spades. It would be a tough call to let go of Steel, given he may have the highest upside of the current group of youngsters. The Ducks would be targeting high upside youth, and while they would be targeting a shooter, it’s unlikely they would be able to find someone with the upside of Steel on the market.

Could the Anaheim Ducks be Forced to Move Max Jones?

Max Jones, however, looks like he could also be surplus to needs going forward. Of all of the youth, he is my personal favorite to watch. Strong and fast, he’s a bull. But, he has no hands and no indication that he may develop any. The Ducks themselves have seemingly locked him into a bottom 6 (at least 3rd line) role with no indication they’ll waiver from that decision. Even last season, with the crippling number of injuries they had sustained, Jones was not given top 6 minutes. Truthfully, Jones may have the lowest trade value of the current youngsters.

A bottom 6 player with a lack of scoring to his name and a high propensity to succumb to penalties, is not typically high on most team’s “need-to-have” list. He may be a very good piece for the Ducks to have themselves in future years, as quality bottom 6 pieces are always in demand. However, with a lack of top 6 options, the Anaheim Ducks are going to eventually be forced to make a move. Moving Jones may be the path of least resistance.

Is Daniel Sprong Dead Weight?

Daniel Sprong, while not one of the Ducks draftee’s, and not really part of the youth movement, is another who may be traded. Nay, more likely, Sprong is to be the first and perhaps only player named thus far, to be traded. A defensive liability, and a so-so scorer, Sprong doesn’t offer much to an NHL team as part of a rebuild or as part of a championship core.

Certain segments of the Ducks fan base are clamoring for him to be recalled from San Diego in a bid to spark the non-existent offense, yet the question has to be asked whether a disgruntled player, who is essentially a warm body in the AHL, would have a marked impact on the NHL club. For that is the crux of it. Sprong has not been good in the AHL. A league he should be dominating if he truly desired a call up with the Anaheim Ducks once again.

What the Ducks could get for such a player remains to be seen. A second-round pick, who was eventually acquired for the price of a player selected with a second-round pick. Has Sprong maintained his value? Can Bob Murray recoup as much as a second-round pick for him? I’d suggest that the outlook there is grim. When, not if Sprong is eventually moved, it will be for a 4th round pick at best. It was certainly worth a gamble to acquiring him initially, however, not all gambles pay off. Sprong, whether he stays or goes from here, is sunk costs. He won’t move the needle in the Ducks bid to acquire or produce a genuine goalscorer.

Are the Los Angeles Kings a Good Trade Partner?

So, who else is there? Adam Henrique is an expensive and aging forward, with many more years on his contract. While Anaheim Ducks fans may be loath to part with their current highest scorer, it may also be in their best interests to trade while the perceived value is high. Henrique is not going to maintain a 20% shooting average.

There are, perhaps, not many teams who desperately require a player of Henriques caliber, who could absorb his contract, but perhaps the Ducks can spin that to their advantage. Cap space can be weaponized, and while the acquisition of Erik Gudbranson blunted that weapon for the Ducks, perhaps accepting an expensive player back in return would allow them to pinch a high-quality youth alongside them.

It may not be palatable in the short term, but perhaps the LA Kings make a good partner in this. Reportedly shopping Tyler Toffoli, they may be interested in a producing veteran player. With Henrique being one of the more productive players, it seems plausible that a trade could be made to acquire one of the Kings highly touted prospects if the Ducks only add a little more. While many of them are defensive prospects, an area the Ducks are now weak in, players like Akil Thomas, present clear offensive potential.

A return of an expiring contract, who may be able to rebound, would provide hope for today. Add that prospect, and suddenly things take an interesting turn. Naturally, no prospect selected that late in the draft is a sure-fire hit, as the Anaheim Ducks now know. Yet, it would add potential to a group that may have its potential played out.