Projecting the Anaheim Ducks 2019 NHL Entry Draft Position

The Anaheim Ducks season quickly coming to a close, and the draft is getting fans excited. However, the question remains, what will their draft position be?

As the Anaheim Ducks season is coming to an end, excitement is building as the fans look towards the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Although Anaheim won’t have the highest odds at winning the lottery, every fan is wondering what the odds will be at obtaining a top three pick.

Instead of speculating, I wanted to project how many points the Ducks will finish the season with and where they will be drafting. To create a projection, I looked at how many points Anaheim expects to win based on their performance since the trade deadline, as well as their record against remaining opponents.

Ducks performance since the Deadline

On the season Anaheim has played 74 games and currently sit with 69 points. Since the trade deadline, the “Mallard Men” have won 6 games and lost 6, gaining 12 points in the process (50% of the points possible.) So, for the first part of the projection, I will be utilizing their 50% chance of victory based on their current performance level.

Remaining opponents

To close the season, Anaheim plays Winnipeg, San Jose, Los Angeles twice, Vancouver, Calgary twice, and Edmonton. So far this season, the Anaheim Ducks have 5 wins, 8 losses and two overtime losses verse these opponents, accumulating 12 points out of a possible 30 (40%). So, for the second part of the projection, Anaheim’s ability to get 40% of the points from remaining opponents will be utilized.

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Point Projection

As mentioned previously, Bob Murray‘s club currently has 69 points. In the 8 games remaining (16 points up for grabs), we have a 50% chance of winning, but a record against the remaining opponents indicating our ability to generate points in those contest at 40%.

The truth lies in the middle, so averaging the two metrics gives Anaheim 45% of the 16 points available. That gives Anaheim 7 points, a 3-5-1 record, and 76 points overall.

Opponents projections

Current teams in the draft lottery top 10

1. Ottawa Senators (56 points – 10 games remaining)
2. Los Angeles Kings (58 points – 10 games remaining)
3. Detroit Red Wings (62 points – 9 games remaining)
4. New Jersey Devils (63 points – 8 games remaining)
5. Anaheim Ducks (69 points – 8 games remaining)
6. New York Rangers (69 points – 9 games remaining)
7. Edmonton Oilers (73 points – 9 games remaining)
8. Buffalo Sabres (72 points – 10 games remaining)
9. Vancouver Canucks (73 points – 9 games remaining)
10. Chicago Blackhawks (72 points – 10 games remaining)

At the moment, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Detroit, and New Jersey are sitting 1-4 in the draft lottery standings and are in the elite class of tankers. For this reason, I did not include them in the projections, since the Anaheim Ducks would need to have Randy Carlyle resume head coaching responsibilities to afford them the ineptitude needed to enter that race.

The Sabres and Rangers have seemingly thrown the towel in on the season and embraced their respective tanking. When completing the projections, especially with so few games remaining, those two clubs continuing to shine like a polished turd can significantly alter the final standings verse the projections.

Finals standings

1. Ottawa
2. Los Angeles
3. Detroit
4. New Jersey
5. Anaheim – 76 points
6. New York Rangers – 77 points
7. Buffalo – 79 points
8. Edmonton – 80 points
9. Vancouver – 82 points
10. Chicago – 86 points

Analysis

Anaheim’s poised to keep the 5th highest odds at winning the draft lottery (8.5% chance for 1st overall). With the fewest games remaining verse their draft competition, and the most difficult schedule to close the season (regarding prior performance verse remaining opponents), Anaheim anti-tank attitude isn’t projected to affect their draft positioning.

Aside from Buffalo ascending one spot and Edmonton dropping one position in the draft odds standings, there were no further changes to current positioning. As mentioned above, Buffalo and New York are teams that can really make life difficult for Anaheim Ducks fans. Although the projections say otherwise, both of those clubs will be giving Anaheim stiff “competition” for their place in the standings.

Draft Lottery Simulator

Since there’s little to look forward to on the ice, fans should start enjoying themselves with the NHL draft lottery simulator on Tankathon. It gives a full breakdown of “Pick odds” and teams chances at obtaining a top 3 pick.

I completed one “mock lottery draft” and; unfortunately, Los Angeles ended up winning the first overall selection. Don’t get too disappointed, Anaheim ended up winning the second overall pick. As much as fans would love to get Jack Hughes, Bob Murray would happily select Kaapo Kakko in this situation.

If the Anaheim Ducks do miss out on Jack Hughes or Kakko Kaapo, which prospect would you like them to draft? Which prospect do you think Bob Murray will target? Let us know your answer by leaving a comment down below!