A Case for the Anaheim Ducks to Acquire Brayden Point
The Anaheim Ducks could benefit from a young talent like Brayden Point. If the opportunity arises, it is definitely something Bob Murray should consider.
In hockey, there’s an unwritten set of rules, and the Anaheim Ducks are no exception. You don’t celebrate a goal when leading in a blowout. You don’t mention the word “shutout” during the third period of a game when a goalie hasn’t allowed a goal. Nor do you do not skip the handshake line, and once someone goes down in a fight, you stop punching.
Those are all on the ice. Off the ice, however, few things are as controversial as offer-sheets. They’re the equivalent of going to the bar, finding someone who is having problems with their significant other, and slime-balling your way into taking them home… Or that’s what GMs and media would expect you to believe.
It’s become an unwritten rule over the years that you don’t offer-sheet. Whether that’s out of respect for the other team or fear of retaliation is hotly debated, but you simply don’t see offer-sheets often. In fact, it’s become an even more taboo thing in recent years. Since 2010 there has only been 3 offer sheets signed. There were 5 from 2000-2010, and a whopping 24 from 1990-1999.
So you may be asking at this point, “What exactly is an offer sheet?” I’m going to do a simplified explanation. A team owns a players rights for a certain amount of time, this is to protect teams, it’d pretty much make the draft pointless if you could sign a 1-year deal after being drafted, and then be free to go wherever you want.
The ability for a team to own a players rights allows them to get a return on their investment. Once you’re drafted you sign an “Entry Level Contract” which is usually a 3-year deal at a very low cap hit. After that deal, there are generally 4-5 years before a player is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent (meaning they can sign anywhere without restrictions).
Before they’re eligible to become an unrestricted free agent, they’re a “restricted free agent”, which means that they are free to negotiate with whoever they want. The difference being that if a restricted free agent agrees to terms with a team, they have to sign an offer sheet, which is to oversimplify it, an unofficial contract offer.
Once a player signs an offer sheet the team who owns their rights has two options. Match the other teams offer, retaining the player for the term and price dictated by the offer sheet, or accept the offer sheet. Which means the player is now a member of the team sending the offer-sheet, and the team who initially owned the players right is awarded compensation.
This link will provide you context to what that compensation entails. It’s dependent on the dollar figure of the contract as to what the compensation is. “But Jon, this article says a case to acquire Brayden Point, what does all this talk about offer-sheets have to do with that?” Let me break it down.
Brayden Point– 22-year-old Center/Wing— Tampa Bay Lightning, Drafted 79th Overall 2014 Entry Draft
Brayden Point is a key component to the current league-leading Tampa Bay Lightning. He’s currently in the last year of his entry-level deal and is currently tied with his career high having a staggering 66 points in 53 games.
Point is well on his way to establishing himself as an elite player in the NHL for a long long time, boasting a 1.35 goals per 60 minutes and 2.17 primary points per 60. Both are very impressive numbers for someone thought to be the 3rd option on a team that has Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov on their payroll. His numbers are fairly similar to Stamkos, who has long been a mainstay on lists of “Elite players” and he’s only 22.
So, it’s a no-brainer for the Bolts to sign Point right? Well, you’d think so, but Tampa is in a bit of a rough spot when it comes to their cap position. As it stands they’re set to enter the off-season with about 6.4 million in cap space. However, the Bolts currently only have 16 players under contract for next season, only 4 of which are defensemen.
They do have Cal Foote in their prospect pool but outside of that, there’s not a ton of top-end talent ready to step in and fill the shoes of expiring Stralman, Coburn or Girardi. The Bolts are going to have to work some real magic to be able to fit a new deal for Point in their books, while also addressing the departing players (or re-signing them.)
Point seems to be a prime candidate to receive an offer-sheeted, and if it gets to the point where an offer-sheet is an option, the Anaheim Ducks should be front of the line to take the young forward from tropical South-Western Florida to sunny Southern California.
The Precursor
First of all, let’s look at what the Anaheim Ducks would have to do in order to fit Brayden Point under the cap. Adam Henrique would be the first casualty. With Point incoming, he’s not as necessary anymore, and his salary being moved out would be beneficial. Potentially a move back to New Jersey?
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The Anaheim Ducks would need to move out some additional salary. Meaning that someone like Cam Fowler would have to be moved to a team who can absorb his price, without having to send much cap back. Montreal is an option and they desperately need a Left side defender.
It would also be fairly important that, although it is possible to swing it without this, one of the biggest contracts on the team to either be traded or eligible to be buried under LTIR similar to Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, Marian Hossa, etc.
That would require Ryan Kesler or Corey Perry to not be seen as fit to play, or, which is almost certainly not going to happen, convince them they want to play elsewhere. This is the biggest hurdle and would require, most likely, Kesler to realize he’s not going to be able to play at a high level anymore.
The Acquisition
There are two ways to make this “pie in the sky” scenario a reality. First, we could offer-sheet Point as mentioned before. That would require Point to agree to the deal, Tampa to not agree to the deal, and would likely cause some friction between the Ducks and Bolts. I think this should be the last resort, but it is a possibility.
In order to get Point to sign an offer sheet, it would have to be an offer he sees sufficient, while also being an offer that Tampa Bay wouldn’t match. In order to do that I think the Anaheim Ducks would have to offer up $10,148,302 a season. This isn’t a random number this is the upper limit of the second to last compensation tier for offer sheet compensation.
This would require the Ducks to cough up 2 first round picks a second round pick and a third-round pick. A hefty price, but one that would be well worth it to acquire a talent like Brayden Point. Offering another dollar over that price would bump the price up to 4 first round picks, which is harder to palette, and is frankly not a possibility given Bob Murray‘s tendencies and lack of willingness to part with 1st round picks. Moving 2 is unlikely, moving 4 is as likely as Carlyle winning the Jack Adams trophy this season, not gonna happen.
The other option? Trade for his rights following the season. If Tampa is not able to extend him, they might look to control their own destiny, as opposed to playing a wait and see game. If that is the case, the Anaheim Ducks could offer a package that could keep Tampa’s window open longer, while also helping them now. A hefty package would need to be required.
Brayden Point makes Sam Steel fairly expendable, especially if the Ducks manage to get a blue-chip center prospect at the draft. I went back and forth with whether to include Brandon Montour or Jacob Larsson, but I figured Montour would be a better option as he’s currently better and would help Tampa in their pursuit of a cup.
The draft picks are spread out over 3 years making it easier for the Ducks to re-tool while also supplying Tampa with picks. Montour would be a fairly big loss for the Anaheim Ducks, but with Mahura or Larsson set to make a jump soon it might not be as badly felt as surface level would indicate, and I think it’d be imperative that the Ducks get a younger defenseman back in the Fowler trade, meaning there wouldn’t be any huge holes created by making these moves.
Overall this is a fantasy scenario that is very unlikely to happen, but it would really change the fortune of this team adding a top tier young player the Anaheim Ducks haven’t had since Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were young, and I think it’s an opportunity they should absolutely take if it arises.
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