The Anaheim Ducks Expansion Mock Draft: WWMD, What Would Murray Do?
The Vegas Golden Knights were a first-year success on the ice. Off of it, their expansion fees benefitted every team. What would happen to the Anaheim Ducks if the NHL expands again this summer?
In the last expansion draft, Vegas took their pound of flesh from the Anaheim Ducks. Shea Theodore was a much greater talent (thanks Clayton Stoner, and no thanks to Kevin Bieksa) than previous teams could ever find in expansion drafts. Let’s take a look at what the Ducks would face if the NHL expanded again this summer.
All About the Benjamins
When Vegas owner Bill Foley forked over a half billion dollars to buy entrance into the NHL, he expected more talent than other expansion teams ever had in the past. NHL owners were happy to oblige, primarily because each team got almost $17M. Even better, that money wasn’t subject to revenue sharing under terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Team owners pocketed that money.
As you would imagine, NHL owners would like to pocket even more money. Luckily, the ownership group hoping to bring an NHL team to Seattle has already conducted a season ticket drive. They had a goal to sell 10,000 seats. That was done in 12 minutes. Within an hour, fans had deposited between $500 and $1,000 for 25,000 seats.
Anyone who has been paying attention knows that means a team will be in Seattle within the next few years. To no one’s surprise, each team will get even more un-revenue shared cash this time around. The owners will split $650 million this time which translates to $21 million for each team.
At the general manager meetings in March, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly informed teams the rules governing the next expansion draft will be the same ones used for Vegas’ draft last off-season. Two-thirds of a billion dollars should buy a few decent players, eh?
What Will the Rules Be?
There are a lot of rules, it is the NHL after all. First, a brief reminder of what the eligibility rules were concerning who could be exposed in the expansion draft.
Each club can only protect one goaltender. Teams have two options on how to construct their skater protected lists. They can either protect seven forwards and three defensemen, or they can protect eight skaters. That means teams who want to protect more than three defensemen get to protect two fewer skaters, and must expose more of their forward talent to Seattle.
Vegas can only select one exposed player from each team. Additionally, any player with a no-movement clause (NMC) effective now and after July 1 must be protected. That can hamstring teams whose GMs were too generous with those NMCs.
Finally,
first and second-year professionals are exempt from the expansion draft. Let’s take a look at how the Ducks would construct their protected list if the expansion draft was this summer.
Hands Tied
Anaheim Ducks fans aren’t going to like this.
Everyone agrees we would need to protect Ryan Getzlaf even if he didn’t have an NMC. How do you feel about Corey Perry being protected over another talented skater? The Ducks will have to burn one of their protected spots on the declining right wing.
Even worse, Ryan Kesler also has an NMC. Although he may miss the entire next season, he has not missed the previous 60 games. That means unless he is confirmed to have a career-threatening injury, he must also be protected.
The unfortunate results are the Ducks would have to use three of their protected slots on three 33-year-old declining forwards. That sucking sound you hear is a really good Ducks property flying north for the winter.
No Brainers
In addition to the three forwards with NMCs, there are a few players who, if exposed, would cost general manager Bob Murray his job immediately. Let’s start in net. We’ve all heard the arguments about who the better goalie is. Just to be absolutely clear, there is no way in hell the Anaheim Ducks would protect Ryan Miller over John Gibson. If you disagree, just know hockey is a great game. I think you’ll like it if you stick with it.
Outside of the captain and his two alternates who have NMCs, there is only one forward that must be protected at all costs, Rickard Rakell. To all those who want Bob Murray gone, Rakell is the poster boy for how the GM handle the cap. He is signed for four more seasons at less than $4M per season cap hit. RickyRak is going nowhere.
The blueline caused the Ducks too much trouble in the last expansion draft. It will be no different in the next expansion draft. There are three defensemen who have to be protected at all costs. Those are Cam Fowler, who has a modified no-trade clause, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson. These three are the cornerstones of the Anaheim Ducks defense. None of them has reached age 27 yet. All of them are signed for at least four more seasons with reasonable-to-good cap hits. Murray again has done good work here, and he will not throw that work away.
No Worries
New players who have completed two or fewer seasons as a professional aren’t eligible. That’s great news for the Ducks when it comes to young forwards like Troy Terry, Max Jones, and Sam Steel. Young defensive prospects such as Jacob Larsson and Marcus Pettersson are also exempt from the expansion draft. The future of the Ducks, and the present of the San Diego Gulls, still looks good.
See Ya
Unfortunately, some popular Ducks will be exposed in an expansion draft. As previously mentioned, 37-year-old goalie Ryan Miller will be exposed. He won’t be selected as this is likely his last season in the NHL. If it isn’t, he will be winding up his stellar career soon enough. Miller satisfies the league requirement that the exposed goalie have a contract for the following season.
On defense, Korbinian Holzer and Andy Welinski are fair game. The Ducks will be thrilled if either is selected. They won’t be. Neither defenseman played the required 40 NHL games last season or 70 games in the last two seasons. You can bet Murray would make sure one of these players had played the required games in order to qualify if an expansion was forthcoming. It’s part of his job.
There will be heartbreak when the list of exposed forwards is released. Ironman Andrew Cogliano (and his modified no-trade clause) is eligible. Patrick Eaves will be on the same list unless he qualifies as having a career-threatening injury. Either way, he’ll be a member of the Ducks.
Fans are already running 22-year-old power forward Nick Ritchie out of town. It’s no surprise he would be exposed. Young prospects Kalle Kossila and Kevin Roy would also be available. Cogliano, Eaves, and Ritchie each qualify to be one of the two forwards with at least 40 games played last season or 70 in the last two.
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff
Here is where it gets interesting. under the scenario above, the Ducks would have already protected four forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. The decision comes down to this: Do they want to protect one more defenseman or three more forwards? The three forwards they could protect would be Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, and Ondrej Kase. The defenseman would be Brandon Montour.
28-year-old center Adam Henrique is signed for only one more season. After that, he will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA). As important as he was last season, the Ducks wouldn’t mind exposing him considering the limited term remaining on his contract.
Swedish wing Jakob Silfverberg is only 27 years old. He is also signed for one more year and will also become a UFA. The Ducks don’t want to lose him and get nothing in return.
Ondrej Kase is different from the other forwards in question. He is only 22 years old. Kase is not yet signed, but the team controls his destiny since he is a restricted free agent. He is a difference maker on the ice. The Ducks know they haven’t seen the best of him yet. Letting him go would hurt the Ducks’ future.
The Ducks haven’t seen the best of 24-year-old defenseman Brandon Montour yet either. He is a great skater, and he’s yet to hit his prime as a defenseman. No one denies he has a bright future. But the question is: Do the Ducks expose Montour, or do they expose the three forwards mentioned above?
The Decision
Shea Theodore became expendable in the last expansion draft. That was due to Montour asserting as the superior talent of the two. Good defensemen are at a premium in the NHL these days. And the Ducks are trying to get faster. Montour is fast. When paired with Fowler, they move the puck out of the zone quicker than anyone else on the team.
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Among Henrique, Silfverberg, and Kase Seattle would undoubtedly select Kase. The Czech native has speed, hands, agility, and a goal scorer’s touch. This question really comes down to whether you would rather lose Montour or Kase.
I can’t see Bob Murray losing another talented young defenseman in the expansion draft. Having a young, solid, puck moving top four of Fowler, Lindholm, Manson, and Montour is something the Ducks can build around for the better part of a decade. I believe the Ducks would elect to protect eight skaters, and either leave Kase exposed or trade him for picks and prospects.
Bob Murray will be getting the Ducks ready for the next expansion draft. His job will not be an easy one. The problem he faces with the next expansion is caused by the NMCs of Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler.
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Let’s hope he doesn’t have to lose a talent like Ondrej Kase because he was so charitable with contract terms a few years ago. That would be a tragedy.