July 1st is always an exciting time for teams and fans as NHL Free Agency officially opens. It’s a time where teams look to change their makeup. Free Agent Signings can significantly alter a teams DNA and future, either positively or negatively for years to come. The Anaheim Ducks need to avoid the temptation to join in.
This coming July, things should be mighty quiet on Katella Avenue. That is absolutely okay. I wrote last week on how the Ducks can re-load on the fly, to get younger and faster. They may need to take my advice, there isn’t much of a fit between available unrestricted free-agents (UFA) and the Ducks budget.
On the Market
Some talented players will be available this summer at all positions. UFA Forwards are led by Rick Nash, Paul Stasny, Evander Kane, James Neal, and David Perron. On the back-end, notable names include; Mike Green Jack Johnson, John Carlson, and Alexei Emelin
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State of the Ducks
Sports Illustrated wrote a story in December last year about NHL commissioner Gary Bettman’s speech at the NHL Board of Governors meetings. Bettman said he expected the salary cap for the 2018-19 season will fall somewhere between $78M-$82M. A significant raise from the $75M of this past season.
According to CapFriendly.com, the Anaheim Ducks have a total of $65M committed next season to eight forwards (nine if you count Troy Terrys ELC), six defensemen (counting Jacob Larsson and Marcus Pettersson) and two goalies. This gives the Ducks roughly between $13M-17M in available cap space.
Sounds like a decent amount to do something in free agency, but the Anaheim Ducks have a few other factors to consider. First, their internal budget cap will be less than the league cap. Additionally, they have their own free agents to sign.
Trim the Fat/Protect Your Own
The Ducks current list of UFA’s should be easy to let go. Francious Beauchemin announced his retirement. Reto Berra signed in Europe. Kevin Bieksa, Chris Kelly, Antoine Vermette, and Jason Chimera should not be expected sport the webbed “D” sweater come October. If Bob Murray sees value in bringing back fourth line grinder JT Brown on the cheap say maybe 1 year/ $1M, he could be a good depth player.
The RFA list both in Anaheim and San Diego is where Murray needs to work some magic. Ondrej Kase, Brandon Montour, Andy Wellinski, Kalle Kossila, Kevin Roy, and Joe Blandisi, all need new deals and could be impact players for Anaheim. Murray must decide if it’s worth putting significant money into Nick Ritchie, or if Nic Kerdiles will become a valued member of the team.
Keeping Your Ducks in a Row
Signing these RFA’s will take some doing, but some are more important than others. The must signs are Montour and Kase. Montour could command something around $3-$3.25M per year. Kase showed flashes of brilliance and invisibility last season. He should be worth somewhere around $2.75M/yr. There is $6M of the $13M or so available.
Murray’s next priority should be locking up Roy, Wellinski, Blandisi, and Kerdiles. Kossilia is in a “take it or leave it” situation. I don’t believe Ritchie fits the Anaheim Ducks mold and see him dealt for a draft pick at some point. When its all said and done, the Ducks should have somewhere between $4M-$8M left in cap space.
Don’t Go Chasing Waterfalls
The Ducks don’t have the funds to be major players in free agency without making other moves, and that isn’t a bad thing. Short of Evander Kane, there is no UFA forward that helps this team achieve their goals, and the likely-hood he re-signs in San Jose is high.
As far as the defense goes, the thought of Carlson on the Ducks blue line with the likes of Montour, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm is very interesting. He is a young big-bodied, puck-moving defenseman that could bring a lot to the team. After his outstanding season, he is going to demand a huge contract and the Anaheim Ducks cant afford his price, short of significant moves.
Next: Five SD Gulls who belong with the Ducks next year.
The Ducks need to resist the urge to make big free agent moves as part of their mission for a second Stanley Cup. If the Ducks stay the course, we can enjoy a date in mid-June 2019 as opposed to July 1, 2018.