Anaheim Ducks Individual Defensive Impact Is Incredibly Lopsided

With the all star break here and the trade deadline approaching, the Anaheim Ducks have some difficult decisions to make regarding their defense.

The NHL trade deadline is February 29th and the Anaheim Ducks have some difficult decisions to make as we creep closer to that date. As they sit dead last in goals scored so far this season, it’s clear which area Ducks general manager Bob Murray may look to address in a trade.

Players that could fill the Ducks needs, such as Andrew Ladd, Loui Eriksson and Jonathan Drouin, have already hit the rumor mill. Other names will continue to surface as we approach the deadline and as is always the case with Bob Murray, expect the unexpected.

Luckily for the Ducks, they have a ton of depth at defense. From NHL level talent to AHL and prospect talent, the Ducks have 9 defensemen under the age of 25 that could entice several GM’s around the league.

The obvious non-NHL level players that could be moved are Brandon Montour, Jacob Larsson, Marcuss Pettersson and Shea Theodore, if you still consider him an AHL’er or a prospect.

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Any of those four could be moved to a team looking to bolster it’s defensive prospect depth, but Theodore is the only one who has somewhat showcased himself at the NHL level. So if a team like the Winnipeg Jets, Boston Bruins or Tampa Bay Lightning – amongst others-  are looking to acquire NHL level defensive talent, things may get trickier.

Cam Fowler’s name seems to always be tossed in the mix this time of year and I wouldn’t expect anything different this time around. However he was playing extremely well before he went down with a knee injury and he should be back immediately following the all star break.

Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm, Simon Despres and Josh Manson are the other Ducks regular’s that could be moved.

So if Murray finds a deal he likes to acquire a top 6 winger and the asking price is one of Vatanen, Lindholm, Despres, Fowler or Manson, which one should be moved?

TSN’s hockey analytics writer Travis Yost wrote a piece the other day where he targeted the Tampa Bay Lightning and the impact that their defensemen are having this season. Yost wanted to take a look at how Tampa’s second and third pairings are impacting the play of the Lightning’s top forwards.

The idea behind Yost article was to see if Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman should go after a young puck moving defensemen if he decides to trade Jonathan Drouin.

What Yost found is exactly that. Beyond the top pairing of Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman, no Tampa defensemen is making an overly positive impact on forwards like Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson.

So after reading that article, I was left with two thoughts.

1. Do the Ducks have a defensmen making an overly positive impact on forwards that could be moved in a trade to acquire Drouin?
2. Which Ducks defensemen are having the biggest impact on their top forwards and should any of the Ducks defensemen become untouchable in a trade?

What I found was incredibly interesting. I wrote a statistical breakdown of the Ducks defense the other day and if you haven’t checked that out, you should (here is the link). That article relays the same message and findings as the chart that I am about to show you.

Just as Travis Yost did in his article, I looked at each defensemen’s corsi% impact on the Ducks top forwards. By doing this, it shows how each Ducks defensemen is generating shots and keeping possession of the puck when on the ice with the Ducks top forwards.

Cam Fowler and Kevin Bieksa were serving as the Ducks “top pairing” before Fowler injured his knee. They were playing big minutes but unfortunately were not having a positive impact on the Ducks top forwards. Fowler was almost having a negative impact before his injury, just look at Ryan Kesler’s corsi% when on the ice with Fowler, yikes.

Lindholm has now logged a ton of even strength minutes playing with Ryan Kesler, whose line is regularly tasked with shutting down the oppositions top forwards. Look at Kesler’s corsi% with Lindholm, over 60%. That’s nearly 15% higher than Kesler’s corsi% with Fowler.

The Ducks are simply a better team when Hampus Lindholm is on the ice. His impact on the Ducks top forwards should make him absolutely untouchable as we approach the deadline. He and Manson have found a strong chemistry playing together and it is clear what kind of impact this “second pairing” is having.

Sami Vatanen’s impact is comparable to Bieksa’s, but it’s clear that it is also not overly positive. Vatanen is getting more and more ice time of late and I’m not quite sure why. He finds his way onto the scoresheet at times but his overall impact is mediocre.

An argument brought up is Kevin Bieksa dragging his defensive partners numbers down this season. Well, that may be somewhat of a slight argument for Fowler, who has played with Bieksa more than anyone, but Lindholm has played more minutes with Bieksa than Vatanen has this season. No “Bieksa drag down” argument for Vatanen. So, I don’t really consider Bieksa’s play to be a valid argument for any of this.

So what does this all mean?

To go off of what Travis Yost looked at, this means that maybe Fowler or Vatanen could have more of an impact playing on Tampa’s second pairing. It’s clear that the Lightning need puck moving defensemen beyond Hedman and Stralman, could Fowler or Vatanen be the guy?

The most important thing here however is the question’s surrounding Lindholm. Why is he not consistently playing big minutes? Last week, he played 28 minutes against Minnesotta and 26 minutes against Detroit but played just 20 minutes last night against Boston. Why?

Are the Ducks trying to shelter the 22 year old Lindholm or are they simply choosing to ignore these kind of statistics?

Regardless, if Lindholm is moved in a trade it would be catastrophic, he needs to be untouchable. There is a real possibility that he and Manson develop into something special.

Next: Shawn Horcoff Suspended 20 Games For PED Use

In the end, thousands of statistics can be presented but the decision ultimately rest in the hands of one man, Bob Murray.

Statistics via Puckalytics.com – Travis Yost Article (Link) – Graph via Onlinecharttool.com