Anaheim Ducks Defense, What The Statistics Say and Whose Available

By Griffin Foster | Jan 25, 2016

Dec 31, 2015; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Anaheim Ducks goalie John Gibson (36) gets thanked by players defenceman Josh Manson (42) and defenceman Hampus Lindholm (47) at the end of the third period at Rexall Place. Ducks won the game 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Walter Tychnowicz-USA TODAY Sports /

The Anaheim Ducks defensive unit is very deep when at full strength, is it time to let one piece go to add some scoring, what do the statistics say?

The Anaheim Ducks are in a unique situation. They’ve been inconsistent all season but still find themselves alive in the playoff race due to a weak pacific division. The Ducks have struggled to score goals to this point and general manager Bob Murray has already begun to move pieces around in attempt to find offensive consistency.

It has not been the defense that’s poisoned the Ducks so far this season, in fact their defense has been a bright spot in a dim and gloomy season.

When Cam Fowler went down with a knee injury that all changed. It appeared as though the Ducks would be holding on for dear life with Fowler out of the lineup as Simon Despres, who has missed nearly three and a half months with post concussion issues, remained out and it created a big hole in the Ducks top four.

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However, the Ducks defense has stepped up big time in Fowlers absence, in large part due to the play of Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen who have taken on an increased role. Lindholm in particular has been incredibly good recently and it’s clear he is the Ducks number one defensemen.

Fowler, Despres and even Stoner could all be back in the lineup as early as this week when the Ducks are in Boston on Tuesday. Simon Despres joined the Ducks in Boston and participated in practice this morning but has yet to be taken off of IR.

When the Ducks blue-line does return to full health for basically the first time all season, it will raise questions and GM Bob Murray will be tasked with making a number tough decisions.

Who will stay, who will play, and who might become expendable or available in a trade to acquire a top 6 winger that can hopefully spark the Ducks offense?

These are the questions Murray must answer. I’ve done some digging and gathered some statistics that paint a picture of what might occur and what Murray’s decision’s may be.

Let’s take a look at what the Ducks have right now.

The Ducks roster is currently at max capacity of 23 players. Stoner, Despres and Fowler are all on IR and three players must be removed from the roster when they are set to return. The Ducks only have 13 forwards on their current roster so three defensemen must be taken off of the roster when Fowler, Despres and Stoner return, which likely will be this week or next.

Lindholm, Vatanen and Bieksa are safe for now. Manson, Clendenning and Holzer all require waivers in order to be sent down to the AHL while Shea Theodore is exempt from waivers.

It is logical to assume Murray will try and find a way to get Clendenning and Hozler to the AHL or even off the roster. It’s going to be tricky and maybe Murray tries to move one of the two for a late round pick or prospect to insure that he doesn’t have to risk losing one or both to a waiver claim.

Theodore has made a case to remain with the big club, but this tricky roster situation may cause his reassignment, at least for the time being.

So that could leave Fowler, Despres, Lindholm, Vatanen, Manson, Bieksa and Stoner as the Ducks seven defensemen.

Now let’s look at whose been good so far this season.

I’ve gathered some statistics from this season that will probably shock some people, but the stats say who should play, who should sit and who could possibly become expendable and moved in a trade.

All of the following stats are from play at 5 v 5 even strength.

Most of the stats will be in “relative” terms. Relative simply means on-ice versus off-ice affect on the team. So saying “Fowler’s Relative Shots For%” simply means how are the Ducks generating shots when Fowler is on the ice versus when he is off the ice.

The higher a players “relative” score is, the more it indicates the Ducks are better in that particular category with that player on the ice. The lower the score or the more negative the score, the more it indicates that the Ducks are worse in that category with the player on the ice or that the Ducks are actually better with that player off the ice.

So, 10.0 is good, it means the Ducks are generating shots or scoring chances with that player on the ice. -12.0 is obviously bad, it means the Ducks are generating less shots or scoring chances with that player on the ice.

Corsi= any shot event that occurs with said player on the ice, missed shots, blocked shots or shots on net when that player is on the ice.

Here are the Ducks defensive leaders in each important stat category so far this season.

[table id=88 /]

Two things that immediately jump out at you when looking at this table. One, Hampus Lindholm is good at hockey. Two, look at Vatanens relative scoring chances percentage. Last amongst the Ducks regular defensemen.

The biggest takeaway is that the Ducks are by far a better team when Hampus Lindholm is on the ice. He ranks first in all of the above categories and it isn’t particularly close at all. His affect on the Ducks is comparable to a guy like Erik Karlsson, the leagues best defensemen.

Of defensemen that have played a minimum of 500 minutes so far this season, Karlsson ranks first in score adjusted relative corsi for%. Lindholm ranks 6th in that category and the impact they are each having on their team is similar.

Karlsson’s score adjusted relative corsi for% is 8.22%. The next highest scores amongst Ottawa defensemen are 1.73 and 0.48. Lindholm’s score adjusted relative corsi for% is 5.93. The next highest scores amongst Ducks defensemen are 3.61 and -1.07.

Lindholm is having a Karlsson-esque impact.

Beyond Lindholm, it’s clear that Manson has been good as well and these numbers indicate that he and Lindholm have played exceptionally well together this season. I’ll get into this more later on.

It’s clear that Fowler, Bieksa and even Vatanen are not having an overly positive effect on the Ducks so far this season. Fowler and Vatanen have played well but they are not having the same effect that Lindholm is having.

If you want to argue that Fowler has played more or that he and Vatanen play against tougher competition compared to Lindholm, you can’t. It’s not true and here is why.

[table id=90 /]

Fowler is averaging just 5 seconds more of ice time per game than Lindholm and at even strength, nobody is playing more than Lindholm. Hampus is also playing against tougher competition. He and Manson are usually tasked with playing against the other teams top forwards which has also been the case during Fowler’s absence.

There is no argument to discount Lindholm’s affect on the Ducks this season.

Here’s a hockeyviz chart that shows shots and shots against for players when they are on and off the ice. Look at the blue box with 47 and then locate the red box with 47. It’s clear that nobody is close to having the same type of impact as Lindholm.

So who becomes expendable? Fowler? Vatanen? Lindholm? Despres? Do you try and move Manson?

Well, the Ducks have gone 8-3-1 in Fowler’s absence. However, that doesn’t indicate they are a better team without him in the lineup.

Fowler was playing really well before the injury and he was by far the Ducks best puck moving and skating defensemen in the early stages of this season. His stats are not great but it was his patient demeanor and skating ability that left an impact on the Ducks defense.

Both Lindholm and Vatanen have been asked to take on a bigger role with Fowler out of the lineup. So what do Lindholm and Vatanen’s stats look like in Fowler’s 12 game absence?

[table id=91 /]

One has excelled in a bigger role, the other is Sami Vatanen.

Lindholm has the edge in every category since Fowler has been out. He also has not taken a penalty during this stretch of an increased role and increased ice time. Vatanen has taken four penalties in the past 12 games, Lindholm has only taken five penalties all season.

The stats during Fowler’s absence are interesting and it shows that Lindholm should be virtually untouchable right now as Bob Murray looks to improve his roster. He and Vatanen’s ice time over the past five games is even more telling.

[table id=92 /]

It’s clear the coaching staff has seen Lindholm’s great play of late and they are now instilling more confidence into the 22 year old.

Vatanen’s 22 points on the season are great, but if Murray has the opportunity to move him for a top 6 winger who can score, shouldn’t he do it? Vatanen was supposed to be the Ducks power play quarterback this season but his affect with the man advantage is not being felt either.

Here’s the number for the Ducks defensmen on the power play.

[table id=93 /]

Vatanen is not excelling at the one thing he is supposed to be great at. He has even lost his spot to Shea Theodore on the top power play unit at times in the past two games when Boudreau has elected to go with four forwards and one defensemen.

While moving Vatanen is not going to be easy, it opens the door for Shea Theodore. If Vatanen is moved, Theodore might have a greater chance to stay with the Ducks this season, and why shouldn’t he be given that opportunity? He’s played great, he has four points in 12 games and is a +2.

So if you move Vatanen that leaves Lindholm, Fowler, Bieksa, Despres, Manson, Stoner and Theodore as the Ducks seven defensemen.

This leads me to my next topic, who plays with who once everyone is healthy?

Fowler and Despres developed a strong chemistry near the end of last season. Despres is an incredibly reliable guy who allows Fowler to join the rush more which is something he has shied away from at times when playing with Bieksa during Despres’ absence.

Putting Fowler and Despres together when they return then allows the Ducks best defensive minded pairing, Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson, to remain together.

Don’t think they should play together? Here are some statistics via Puckalytics which shows how effective guys are when playing together.

[table id=94 /]

You can see that Lindholm and Manson have played together just as much as Fowler-Bieksa and Stoner-Vatanen. Despite the ice time of the three pairings being similar, it’s clear who the Ducks best defensive pairing has been this season.

It would be wise to keep Lindholm and Manson together as they have great numbers and have effectively been shutting down opponents top lines of late. Lindholm is beginning to join the rush far more often which correlates to the fact that he is becoming far more comfortable playing next to Manson.

So with the top four basically set, who plays on the third pairing?

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Well, if Vatanen is still around, you have to assume it will be him and Bieksa. That leaves Stoner a nice seat up in the press box and maybe Murray finds a way to get rid of Stoner as $3.25 million is a big price to pay a guy who will be wearing a suit and drinking coffee during games.

But let’s say Vatanen gets shipped out, that opens the door for a Theodore-Bieksa pairing or a Stoner-Theodore pairing. Either way, it leaves the Ducks with an expensive player, Bieksa or Stoner, watching from the press box if Theodore becomes a regular on the third pairing.

Final thoughts

It’s clear that Hampus Lindholm should become untouchable as we approach the trade deadline. If Bob Murray receives any phone calls that start with, “So how do you feel about Hampus Lindholm”, he should hang up the phone.

Fowler and Vatanen have not made a huge impact on the Ducks from a statistical standpoint and I think Vatanen’s inability to consistently produce on the power play makes him expendable.

Right now I think Fowler is the better option to keep. Financially, it makes sense. Fowler has two years left on his deal after this season at a very reasonable cap hit of $4 million. Vatanen needs a new deal this summer and I have a feeling that he and his agent may be greedy with their asking price.

Lindholm, Rakell and Andersen also need new deals this summer and moving Vatanen clears a ton of future cap space while eliminating a potentially fatal offer sheet risk.

It’s clear that moves will be made soon. Not only moves to clear space for the Ducks returning blue-liners, but moves to create more offense. Murray himself has stated the he is not done improving his roster.

Next: Despres' Return Brings Along Tough Roster Decisions

Whatever happens in the next couple of days or weeks will indicate how much Murray and his staff look at all the available statistics. However, finding a deal that coincides with the statistics may be a tough challenge. At this point, who knows what will happen.

Statistics via War-on-ice Puckalytics Behindthenet Hockeyviz NHL.com

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