Are We There Yet? Anaheim Ducks Struggling to Compete With Elite Teams
Jan 4, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) celebrates with the bench after scoring the game tying goal against the Nashville Predators to force overtime during the third period at Honda Center. The Anaheim Ducks won in a shootout with a score of 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
The Anaheim Ducks were riding high towards the close of the month of January. They were finally enjoying a healthy roster for the first time all season, and found themselves at the top of the NHL standings going into the all-star break. Following the break, a dominant victory over the Vancouver Canucks extended their winning streak to seven games.
However, this streak came to an end this weekend, as the Ducks lost twice in upsetting fashion. First, Anaheim endured a 6-3 drubbing at the hands of their rivals, the San Jose Sharks. The following evening, the Ducks failed to give the cup-favorite Chicago Blackhawks any trouble, as they only controlled 42.86% of shots en route to a 4-1 loss.
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This seems to be a common theme for the Anaheim Ducks. For three straight years, the Ducks have dominated teams in the regular season—despite statistics which indicated that their success was unsustainable. In the last two years, these claims by statisticians were ultimately validated when the Ducks suffered early exits from the Stanley Cup playoffs.
These defeats were suffered at the hands of much superior possession teams, though this success did not always translate into regular season points. In 2013, the second-seeded Ducks lost to the seventh seed, the Detroit Red Wings. Despite their low seeding, the Red Wings were 5th in the league in possesion (53.6%), while Anaheim was near the bottom of the league (22nd –48.0%).
In 2014, the top-seeded Ducks fell to another rival, the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings led the league in possession (56.8%), while Anaheim once again middled (19th –49.8%). Los Angeles’ dominant style of play helped them narrowly avoid a first round exit to San Jose, and allowed them to defeat the Ducks in seven games en route to their second Stanley Cup in three seasons.
A certain narrative about the Ducks has began to emerge. While Anaheim’s style of play, which does not emphasize possession may be effective in the regular season, against opponents with varying strengths and weaknesses, it is exploited against teams that are among the best in the NHL.
As fans, we should start holding our team accountable for how they stack up against the very best teams in the league—and not just where they are in the standings
This weakness is more evident (and more painful) in the playoffs, but it can also be observed in the regular season.
This season, the Anaheim Ducks are 14th in Corsi-For (CF%), controlling 51.2% of shots throughout the course of the season.
Despite these middling possession numbers, they currently sit atop of the league standings with 70 points (32-12-6), garnering 70% possible standings points.
Anaheim has played half of its games this season against teams in the Top 15 in possession numbers: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit, the New York Islanders, Nashville, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Boston, Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington, St. Louis, and San Jose.
In twenty-five games against these opponents, the Ducks are just 14-9-2 (with four of those victories coming from the shootout), garnering 60% possible standings points in that time—a marked decrease form their season average, but still not terrible.
Anaheim Ducks
What is concerning is their decline in possession from their season average against such teams. Against Top 15 possession teams, the Ducks control just 47.09% of shots taken. How bad is this? On par with teams like New Jersey (48.0%) and Colombus (46.1%), near the basement of the NHL.
It is interesting to see how the Ducks perform in games against these top possession teams. In these twenty-five games, the Ducks dominated possession (over 55%) just twice—once against the Los Angeles Kings, in a 6-5 shootout victory, and once against the Florida Panthers in a 6-2 loss.
It should be noted that the Ducks possession numbers against Florida were aided by score effects, as the Panthers jumped out to a lead quickly and then sat back, allowing Anaheim to attempt to chip away at their lead.
Jan 17, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf (15) heads down ice in the first period of the game against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The Ducks have narrowly led possession (50-54.9%) three times, earning a victory in all three games.
Additionally, Anaheim earned a 7-4-2 record in games which the Ducks narrowly trailed in possession (45-49.9%), and a 3-4-0 record in which they were dominated by other teams (44.9% and under).
The correlation between possession and consistent victory against good teams over a large sample size is well documented, and is also evident in the case of the Anaheim Ducks.
So what do all these numbers mean? While the Ducks are still a good team, they are nowhere near elite, at least not right now with the current roster. Once the playoffs begin, the Ducks will have to do battle against the best teams in the league on a nightly basis.
Of the eight teams currently in playoff position in the Western Conference, the Ducks are fifth in CF%—just ahead of San Jose, Vancouver, and Calgary, but far behind bubble teams like Los Angeles and Minnesota.
As fans, we should start holding our team accountable for how they stack up against the very best teams in the league—and not just where they are in the standings. The last two games against Chicago and San Jose should serve as a wake up call.
The Ducks should not be content with where they are now. They still need to learn and grow as a team. Certain roster adjustments must also be made, if this is to be the year the Stanley Cup is brought back to Anaheim.