Jan 4, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) celebrates with Anaheim Ducks defenseman Hampus Lindholm (47) and Anaheim Ducks center Nate Thompson (44) after scoring the game tying goal to force overtime against the Nashville Predators during the third period at Honda Center. The Anaheim Ducks won in a shootout with a score of 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Imagine this. It’s the summer of 2014 in Anaheim. The Ducks have just regrouped coming off of a second-round playoff defeat to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions (who shall remain nameless henceforth). They have just acquired a new second-line center in Ryan Kesler in the blockbuster trade of the summer.
Now imagine that someone from the future tells you that by January, the Ducks will be 18th (2.64)in goals per game, after finishing 2013-14 with the league’s hottest offense. In addition to this, the Ducks will be 16th in goals against (2.62), 23rd in power play conversion (15.8%), 19th in penalty kill percentage (79.6), and 12th in possession (CF%: 51.9%).
You would probably think that by January 2015, the Ducks may be fighting for a wild card spot. Or perhaps, making difficult decisions as to their draft position. Fortunately, you would be wrong. The Ducks currently are tied for 2nd in the NHL in standings points, and carry a nine-point lead in the Pacific Division (though the second-place Vancouver Canucks have two games in hand).
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The Anaheim Ducks are a bit of a statistical quandary, in that they have middling statistics—both advanced and traditional, and yet they have found a way to win.
They’ve done so amidst a sea of injuries and illnesses to key players.
What is most interesting about the Ducks’ success this season is the way that they’ve found it. The Ducks are now 20-0-6 in one-goal games. One can draw several conclusions from this.
One could view it optimistically, and argue that the Ducks have the “heart”, “grit”, or any other intangible buzzword needed to succeed in pressure situations, and therefore, the Ducks are primed for a deep postseason run. Or, one could see the Ducks impressive record as built on a shaky foundation that could come crumbling down at any moment if their luck changes.
Even more interestingly, this stat represents a pretty significant departure from last year’s Anaheim Ducks, which manhandled the rest of the league in the regular season. Led by the league’s #1 offense, scoring 3.2 goals/game, it wasn’t uncommon for the Ducks to beat their opponents by two, three, four, or even more goals.
This season, Anaheim hasn’t exactly dominated. Seemingly every game is tight, but the Ducks consistently find ways to win. After half the season, the Ducks are on pace to match last season’s record amount of standings points (116).
Dec 27, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena. The Coyotes defeated the Ducks 2-1 in an overtime shootout. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Anaheim’s situational possession numbers give us a small clue as to why there have been so many close games compared to last year, and why the Ducks have been so successful in these games.
While the Ducks have middling possession numbers on the whole, (19th—51.9% CF%), the Ducks are a much better possession team when down by one.
While score effects dictate that logically, a team will get more chances and offensive zone time while they are trailing, the Ducks are tenth in the league in these situations: controlling 56.0% of shot attempts.
These numbers illustrate that the Ducks have the potential to be a dominant possession team when the chips are down. However, the Ducks are bad at playing with the lead.
When up by one goal, the Ducks are 19th in the league—controlling just 40.9% of shots. Last year, the Ducks controlled 46.8% of shots when up a goal—good for only 14th best in the league, but still a marked improvement compared to this season.
As such, many Ducks’ games have become seesaw, back-and-forth affairs. When the opposing team takes the lead, the Ducks fight and are able to tie it up.
When the Ducks take the lead, they play poorly—giving up more shot attempts than ordinary teams with a lead, causing the Ducks to hang on to dear life and pray that no pucks cross the line in the last minute.
So far, this plan has worked. But Anaheim shouldn’t bank on this in the long run.
In the playoffs, holding onto a lead is of the utmost importance. For example, who knows what would have happened if Marian Gaborik hadn’t scored the game-tying goal with only seven seconds remaining during Game 1 against the Kings last season.
Instead of letting other teams come at them in waves with the lead, the Ducks need to be less conservative and make an effort to dictate play more. By playing less conservatively and controlling play more, Anaheim will both reduce the likelihood of blowing a lead last minute, and increase the likelihood of netting an insurance goal to put games out of reach.
If Anaheim cannot improve its play while leading, their luck will run out eventually. As fans, we can only hope that the Ducks can learn their lesson during the regular season, and not in another heartbreaking early exit in the playoffs.