Anaheim Ducks Lindholm or Vatanen, Who Gets Moved?

The Anaheim Ducks are blessed with a ton of young defensive talent, but there may be an opportunity to move either Hampus Lindholm or Sami Vatanen in exchange for scoring.

As the February 29th NHL trade deadline continues to creep up on us, there will be continued talk about what the Anaheim Ducks should do. Should they move one of their young talented blue-liners in an attempt to acquire a top 6 winger? Should they keep this team together as it currently stands due to a recent turnaround?

The most popular names that will be thrown around in rumors are Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm. All under the age of 25 and all have an incredibly bright future ahead of them due to the resume they have each built for themselves to this point in their young careers.

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Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm are both restricted free agents in need of new deals this summer and it may become increasingly difficult to re-sign both. Why?

Rickard Rakell also needs a new deal this summer as does Freddie Andersen and finding a way to squeeze all four players under the internal budget won’t be easy. That’s where Cam Fowler fits into this equation as well. Fowler’s salary and cap hit for each of the next two seasons is $4 million, including him in a deal clears $8 million dollars that could be spent on one of the 2016 RFA’s.

It would be difficult to compare Fowler’s early career production to Lindholm and Vatanen’s simply for the fact that the 2010 and 2011 Ducks were a completely different team than the Ducks of 2014 and 2015. For this reason let’s take Fowler out of the picture for now and let’s focus on Lindholm and Vatanen.

Lindholm has played in 32 more NHL games than Vatanen to this point in their careers so let’s look at production rates instead of point totals.

Here are Lindholm and Vatanen’s regular season 5 v 5 even strength production rates (goals, assists, primary assists and points) per 60 minutes of ice time to this point in their careers.Production rates of both are nearly identical to this point in their careers. Vatanen has found the back of the net at a higher rate while Lindholm’s primary assist rate is more impressive. The moral of this story is both can contribute offensively and there would be no clear drop-off in production if one is moved in a trade. /

Now let’s look at how they’ve impacted play throughout their career by looking at some numbers in relative terms.

Relative= a team’s production when said player is on the ice minus the team’s production with said player off the ice.

So, the higher a players “relative” numbers are the more it indicates the team is that much better when that player is on the ice.

I looked at the major possession driving categories, corsi (all shot events) and scoring chances in relative terms. I also looked at goals in relative terms which is a strong indicator of how the Ducks have scored with each player on the ice.

Here’s Lindholm and Vatanen’s 5 v 5 relative numbers to this point in their careers.Hampus Lindholm’s on-ice possession impact is far greater than Sami Vatanen’s. The Ducks have also generated more scoring chances when Lindholm is on the ice and that in turn explains why his relative goals percentage is so high. /

Lindholm’s overall positive impact on the team is clear so I wondered what he and Vatanen’s impact on some of the Ducks top forwards would look like.

I looked at who have been the Ducks top scoring and most used forwards since the beginning of the 2013-2014 season. I then looked at the impact Lindholm and Vatanen have had on those top forwards since that time which marked the true beginning for each of their careers.

I measured impact through each of the forwards corsi (all shot attempts) percentage when on the ice with either Lindholm or Vatanen to see which of the defensemen drives possession more when on the ice with guys like Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler.

Here’s what Lindholm and Vatanen’s 5 v 5 corsi impact has been on the Ducks top forwards since the beginning of their careers.In-between Lindholm and Vatanen’s corsi% when on the ice with each forward, is a grey bar that indicates each of the six forwards individual corsi percentage since the beginning of the 2013-2014 season. This allows us to see not only the impact that Lindholm and Vatanen are having when on the ice with each of the six forwards, but it indicates how great of an impact they are each having with all six forwards. /

You can see the trend of which defensemen has the greatest impact when on the ice with some of the Ducks top forwards.

Ryan Kesler for instance, has a corsi percentage of 52.4% since joining the Ducks in 2014. When on the ice with Vatanen that percentage slightly raises to 52.7%. However when Kesler is on the ice with Lindholm that percentage drastically raises to 56.6%, a 4.2% increase.

The significance of this?

Ryan Kesler’s job every single night is to play against the opponents top forwards in an attempt to shut them down. It would be logical to assume most defensemen might, at best, have a minimal impact on Kesler. Yet, Lindholm positively impact’s Kesler when the two are on the ice together.

But what have they done lately? When looking to make a trade before February 29th, Ducks management is likely going to have this current season playing a significant role in their decision making process.

So what kind of impact have Lindholm and Vatanen had on the Ducks top forwards so far this season?I again included each of the Ducks forwards individual corsi% this season to see how great of an impact, or how negative of an impact, Lindholm and Vatanen are individually having when on the ice with each forward. /

Lindholm’s impact on each of the forwards this season is similar to the previous chart which showed his positive impact on each of the forwards since his NHL career began. Vatanen’s impact this season has decreased from the previous career impact graph. His impact this season has turned negative in most cases.

Final Thoughts and Takeaways

Everyone can formulate their individual opinion when taking a look at analytics and graphs such as the ones I have provided. Some can ignore analytics, some can dispute them and others may fully accept them. One thing you can’t dispute however is trend.

With each graph I provided, there was a trend of Lindholm displaying superior numbers or impact. However this is not to say Sami Vatanen is an invaluable asset, because he is incredibly valuable and there are likely 29 NHL general managers that would love to have Vatanen on their blue-line.

From a financial standpoint there are other key elements that tie into this situation. As I mentioned before, both Lindholm and Vatanen become RFA’s this summer and both will be looking to cash in.

If Bob Murray and his management team elect to take the “bridge deal” route with either, it should be noted that Lindholm can be given a 3 year extension and still be an RFA at expiration, which would give the Ducks continued protection for that next extension. Vatanen on the other hand can only be given a 2 year extension in order to preserve his RFA status and insure protection at the expiration of the deal.

The “bridge deal” concept may be irrelevant or it may be completely relevant, but it’s something to consider when looking at all of these statistics and determining if either should be moved in a trade before February 29th.

Shea Theodore and Jacob Larsson are not far away from becoming everyday NHL players and the Ducks have completely stockpiled their defensive prospect pool by selecting young blue-liners with their first round pick in 4 of the last 6 drafts.

In evaluating a potential trade with the drastic implications that a Lindholm, Vatanen or Fowler move would have, finding out who can provide the greatest present and future impact directly correlates to future financial implications. With so much uncertainty looming in the distance with regards to expansion and other league-wide issues, it will be interesting to see which course of action Bob Murray and his staff take.

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