The Anaheim Ducks are one of the teams rumored to be in the hunt for Jonathan Drouin. A few statistics show why they need him.
1999, this is the last time the Ducks did not make a selection in the first round of the NHL entry draft. The Ducks have since become a franchise that has chosen to build its core through the draft and have acquired young assets by doing so.
Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were selected by the Ducks in the first round of the 2003 draft. They have since become the face of the franchise and one of the leagues most dynamic duos.
Getzlaf and Perry are now entering their early 30’s and while both have continued to stay extremely productive over the past few seasons, the Ducks future up front is beginning to become a pressing issue.
In four of the last six drafts, the Ducks have selected defensemen with their first round pick. Cam Fowler has turned into a great top four puck moving defensemen and Hampus Lindholm is on his way to becoming one of the leagues next best two-way defensemen. Shea Theodore and Jacob Larsson are the future of the Anaheim blue-line and nobody is questioning the Ducks decision to draft young talented defensemen in the first round.
With that however, comes a lack of elite talent up front in the forward group.
Rickard Rakell is the future, plain and simple. He’s playing on the Ducks top line with Getzlaf and Perry and the 22 year old from Sweden has elite offensive talent. Only three forwards who were selected in the first round by the Ducks remain on their roster today. It’s Getzlaf, Perry and yes, Rickard Rakell.
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Nick Ritchie was the Ducks 2014 first round pick and he should start next season in Anaheim. He’s a big winger with an NHL level shot and his physical game is already at a level the Ducks are pleased with. He’s going to be an elite power forward soon.
The problem here is that beyond Rakell and Ritchie, who will drive the Ducks offense five years from now?
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick of Ottawa’s acquired by the Ducks in the Bobby Ryan trade. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit but he has not developed as quickly as the Ducks probably would have liked.
Nic Kerdiles and Michael Sgarbossa are two talented prospects as well but neither is lightning things up in the AHL this season.
Max Friberg and Chris Wagner are both gone via trade but I don’t think either was going to turn into a top 6 forward capable of producing 40+ points consistently.
2015 draft picks such as Julius Nattinen, Troy Terry, Brent Gates and Deven Sideroff could all develop into something special, but none are a lock at this point to bring future offensive production.
The decision to take defensemen with recent first round selections is by no means a wrong decision, it just simply is a decision that was made and now Ducks general manager Bob Murray must look elsewhere to find offense and young elite forwards.
Enter the 2013 third overall pick, Jonathan Drouin.
Drouin put up 105 points with Halifax in his draft year and he backed that up with 108 points when the Lightning sent him back to juniors for the 2013-2014 season.
He was given his first shot at the NHL last season playing in 70 games with the Lightning. He posted 32 points as a rookie which is impressive but it obviously didn’t meet the expectations that some had for Drouin.
He only appeared in 6 playoff games last season when the Lightning went on their run to reaching the Stanley Cup finals. It was clear that head coach Jon Cooper felt Drouin’s two-way game was not fully developed yet.
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Drouin was given the opportunity to start this season playing on Tampa’s top line with Steven Stamkos. He was red hot to start the year posting 6 points through five games. However, Jon Cooper once again made it clear that he was not pleased with Drouin’s overall game.
Is this to say that Drouin is not going to be a great player one day? Absolutely not.
Tampa is loaded with talented forwards, most of which play a strong two-way game which is something that their coach admires. Drouin is only 20 years old and it’s unfair to say he will never develop into a star just because one NHL coach doesn’t like his overall game at this point and time. Again, he’s only 20.
You don’t put up 100 points in back-to-back seasons at the junior level by accident. His offensive talent shouldn’t be in question and I am someone who believes he will become an elite talent in the near future.
This is a case where a perfect match was not found and Drouin will likely succeed in a different system with another team under a new head coach.
So why should the Anaheim Ducks go all in for Drouin?
To begin this article I made it clear that the Ducks have a big question mark in terms of future offensive production from their young forwards.
I’m going to make that question mark an even bigger one right now.
I took a look at every team’s young forwards and how big of a role they have played for their team’s so far this season.
I looked at point production from forwards who are as of today, under the age of 25.
27 teams have gotten a combined total of at least 40 points from forwards under the age of 25.
The Ducks are not one of those teams, they rank 28th in terms of combined points from forwards under the age of 25.
I totaled the amount of points so far this season from forwards under the age of 25 and I divided that number by 30, the amount of teams in the league.
So far this season, the league average for a team’s combined points from forwards under the age of 25 is 78.6.
The Ducks have gotten 23 combined points from forwards under the age of 25 so far this season, well below the league average. Only Pittsburgh and Toronto have had worse production from forwards under the age of 25.
I then looked at how big of an impact is being made by each team’s forwards under the age of 25.
In terms of every teams top 10 scoring forwards, 27 teams have at least 2 forwards under the age of 25 that currently rank within their teams top 10 scoring forwards.
The Ducks are one of three teams that only have one forward under the age of 25 who ranks within the teams top 10 scoring forwards, it’s Rickard Rakell.
The Ducks forwards have scored a total of 65 goals so far this season. Ducks forwards under the age of 25 have scored 9 of those 65 goals. So the Ducks forwards under the age of 25 have scored 13.8% of the Ducks goals so far this season and if you take away Rakell’s 8 goals, it’s less than 1%.
Now to the San Diego Gulls.
The Gulls only have 5 forwards under the age of 25 who currently rank within the teams top 10 scorers. The Gulls also only have 2 forwards under the age of 25 who are currently sitting inside the AHL’s top 100 scorers, it’s Nick Ritchie and Michael Sgarbossa.
Let me address your counterargument to all of these statistics
I’m assuming somebody is going to look at all of this and have some kind of counterargument. So, let me tell you what I think.
I assume somebody is going to say, well the Ducks don’t have that many forwards under the age of 25 who have played for them this season so why are you comparing their statistics to teams like Buffalo and Florida who have a ton of young forwards on their roster.
Anaheim Ducks
That is my point exactly, they do not have young forward talent that is NHL ready. If you take away Rakell’s 19 points then the Ducks forwards under the age of 25 have only put up 4 points so far this season. The Ducks forwards under the age of 25 have combined for 76 games played to this point, that’s not an insignificant amount.
The point I’m trying to make is that exactly, the Ducks do not have young forwards, aside from Rakell, who are ready to take the reigns from Getzlaf and Perry. It’s nobody’s fault, the future of Anaheim’s blue-line looks a lot better than Florida’s or Buffalo’s due to drafting good young defensemen, but the youth movement up front is non-existent.
The difference between Florida and Buffalo is that they have young forwards who have developed quickly to make an impact at the NHL, the Ducks have not had that luxury yet.
The next counterargument you might make is that they have defensemen under the age of 25 who have produced offensively.
Well that is great and every team needs that, but that just furthers my point. The Ducks have drafted so many defensemen and built a deep blue-line prospect pool but the forward prospect depth is lacking. You can’t rely on Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm to produce 50 points every year to counter a lack of young forwards who can’t score for the next 10 seasons.
Another counterargument could be that the Ducks have a lot of forwards who aren’t NHL ready yet.
You think the Ducks want to keep guys like Stefan Noesen and Nic Kerdiles in the AHL? Bob Murray would love for those guys to earn a spot with the Ducks but they have not developed into NHL level offensive talents yet. Nick Ritchie is the only forward on the Gulls roster that Murray is happy with keeping in the AHL this season.
No prospects have stepped up and proven that they can contribute offensively at the NHL level and it’s an issue.
So what is the takeaway from all of this?
Plain and simple, the Ducks have an opportunity to acquire Jonathan Drouin and eliminate that question mark surrounding the future offensive production from young forwards.
As I said, beyond Rakell, Ritchie and possibly Sekac, who is going to produce offensively for the Ducks 5-10 years from now? Adding Drouin to the mix gives the Ducks a group of forwards under the age of 23 who will make the future brighter.
It won’t be cheap to get Drouin, we all know that. It might take a guy like Sami Vatanen or maybe Brandon Montour and a pick, but could it be worth it?
Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Simon Despres, Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Jacob Larsson, Marcus Pettersson.
9 defensemen under the age of 25 who all have a bright future in the NHL ahead of them. It’s time to give up some of that depth to help the lack of young elite forwards.
Drouin is by no means a “for sure thing”, but the reward outweighs the risk. He just needs to be in the right situation playing the right role under the right coach on the right team. Drouin would look good in black and orange.
If the Ducks don’t go get Drouin somebody else will. St. Louis, Colorado, Arizona and others would create a brighter future for themselves by acquiring Drouina and in doing so they would expand the size of the question mark surrounding the Ducks future offensive production from young forwards. The future of another western conference team would get brighter and the Ducks would be sitting their elite young forwards excel at the NHL level for the next 15 years.
It isn’t time to make a splash with a trade, it’s time to make a tidal wave trade and acquire Drouin. The future up front isn’t going to secure itself.