The Anaheim Ducks could really use a young talented winger, Jonathan Drouin wants out of Tampa so what would a potential deal look like?
Sunday was an eventful day in the NHL with the news of Jonathan Drouin requesting a trade. Wednesday January 6th was an even more eventful day with a number of big trades occurring. It’s no secret that the Anaheim Ducks could now give Tampa a call to check in on Drouin, the only question that remains is what will Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman’s asking price be.
I wrote about this situation earlier this week and the more I really thought about, the more a deal between Anaheim and Tampa made sense.
First, Tampa wants a puck moving defensemen and the Ducks have quite a few of those. Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen and a few Ducks prospects should all intrigue Steve Yzerman.
Another reason it makes sense is that Tampa has virtually no cap room this season and they have a number of key players needing new deals this offseason as well as after the 2016-2017 season.
Tampa’s 2016 free agents include Stamkos (UFA), Coburn (UFA), Marchessault (RFA), Kucherov (RFA), Paquette (RFA), Killorn (RFA), Namestikov (RFA), Brown (RFA) and Nesterov (RFA).
Tampa’s 2017 free agents include Boyle (UFA), Hedman (UFA), Sustr (RFA), Palat (RFA), Johnson (RFA) and Drouin (RFA).
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As of right now, Tampa has around $47.64 million committed to the cap for the 2016-2017 season. That means they are likely looking at $24-$26 million in cap space this offseason. While that is a lot of money, working out a potential new deal with Steven Stamkos will take away a huge chunk of that money, likely $8-$10 million.
Things obviously don’t get any easier in the summer of 2017, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Victor Hedman will all be deserving of big extensions as all three are the future of the Lightning franchise. I guess it’s a good problem to have
Moving Drouin makes sense for Tampa as he is a 2017 free agent along with the three before mentioned players. Moving Drouin eliminates him from the contract extension headache that Steve Yzerman is going to endure.
Moving Drouin would also give Tampa an opportunity to clear cap space in a trade by sending off a contract of a player that is eating up some money that could be spent elsewhere.
However, for the Anaheim Ducks, taking on a hefty cap eating deal is not quite possible at this time.
The Ducks are a budget team. This means that if the salary cap is set at $71.4 million, the Ducks will not have that much money to spend on players. Ducks general manager Bob Murray operates under an internal salary cap that is somewhere around the $65-$68 million mark for this season. Yes, if you want to consider the Ducks somewhat of a “moneyball” team, go for it.
That internal cap number of $65-$68 million could rise or fall next year, but it should be noted that the Ducks are not able to take on a hefty contract that Tampa wants to get rid of.
So the idea of Matt Carle being sent to Anaheim is not one that can happen unless the Ducks send a guy like Pat Maroon or Clayton Stoner back to Tampa. Carle’s cap hit is $5.5 million, Maroon’s cap hit is $2 million and Stoner’s is $3.25 million. A Carle for Maroon or Stoner trade off would clear around $2-$4 million for Tampa.
However, one guy that Tampa could send to Anaheim without having to take anything back is Eric Condra.
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Condra has two years left on his deal after this season and his cap hit is $1.25 million. This seems insignificant compared to Tampa’s other hefty deals such as Carle’s, but trading Condra gives Steve Yzerman over a million dollars this summer and next which allows him to use that extra cash when discussing extensions with other important players.
So, the 8 potential deals I have constructed all include Condra because I believe that is a favorable move for the Lightning and since Condra has been a scratch lately, his presence in Tampa likely won’t be missed.
Here are 8 potential trades that could send Jonathan Drouin to Anaheim.
Jakob Silfverberg, Brandon Montour, 2016 3rd round pick, 2017 2nd round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
This deal gives Tampa a talented two-way forward in Silfverberg along with the AHL’s second leading scoring defensemen, Brandon Montour.
Silfverberg would fit in nice with Tampa as he can kill penalties while still adding offense, a prototypical two-way Lightning forward. Montour is having an incredible season in the AHL with 28 points in 30 games. He quarterbacks the San Diego Gulls powerplay and leads the entire AHL in powerplay assists with 15.
The Lightning could absolutely use a talented young defensemen in their system and Montour could be an everyday NHL player as early as next season.
The Ducks have two third round picks in 2016 and Bob Murray would likely be more than willing to move one in a deal to acquire Drouin. Adding the Ducks 2017 2nd rounder would be tough, but that might intrigue Yzerman more than just a 3rd rounder.
Why this deal won’t work
Silfverberg was given an extension this offseason and his cap hit is $3.75 million for the next three seasons. While he is a talented two-way player, sending a player with that big of a cap hit to Tampa is unhelpful in their attempts to extend the contracts of the players they already have on their roster.
This move doesn’t help Tampa shed any salary and they would be taking on $2.5 million in the Silfverberg for Condra tradeoff.
Cam Fowler, 2016 3rd round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
Fowler is the puck moving defensemen Tampa has desired to acquire. A 3rd round pick is also thrown in as the Ducks have two of them.
Tampa gets rid of Condra to make acquiring Fowler and his $4 million dollar cap hit easier.
Why this deal won’t work
Financially, this ones tough. the trade off between Fowler and Condra is $3.75 million in the Ducks favor. A 2017 2nd round pick might also have to fit into this deal.
Sami Vatanen, Marcus Pettersson, 2016 3rd round pick, 2017 2nd round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
Not only would Tampa get Vatanen, but they would get a 2014 second round pick as well, Swedish defensemen Marcus Pettersson.
Pettersson just finished up playing for Sweden at the world juniors and he is a tall two-way defensemen with a heavy slap shot. His physical game is evolving and he played fairly well at the world juniors, he had three assists in Sweden’s opening game.
This deal gives Tampa two highly rated defensemen as well as a 3rd round pick and Tampa again clears Condra’s contract.
Why this deal won’t work
This deal is closer than the others, but I think a 2nd round pick and possibly even a 1st rounder might be required if Yzerman is not going to acquire NHL ready talent.
If a 2nd rounder is thrown in along side the 3rd rounder, I think this could be a deal that Yzerman think’s twice about.
Cam Fowler, Jiri Sekac
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra,
Why this deal works
Sekac is a speedy winger that could play on a 3rd or 4th line in Tampa. An ankle injury sidelined him earlier this season but he showed flashes of offensive dominance early on. Fowler would have had a chance to be an all star if he didn’t get injured and he was having a breakthrough season before the knee sprain.
Tampa wants a puck moving defensemen and Fowler is exactly that. There are few defensemen in the league with better skating abilities than Fowler.
Why this deal won’t work
Sekac is also a restricted free agent this summer. He has not yet earned himself a big contract with his NHL body of work, but it is still another guy that Yzerman must worry about resigning.
Fowler’s cap hit is $4 million and the tradeoff between he and Condra is $3.75 million in Anaheim’s favor. Financially, this deal probably wouldn’t work unless Anaheim retained some of Fowler’s salary and I don’t know if that will happen.
Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, 2016 3rd round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
Sami Vatanen is an incredibly talented offensive midned defensemen. He plays big minutes on the powerplay as well as on the penalty kill and would be a nice addition to the Tampa blue-line. Manson’s physical defensive minded game has improved drastically this season and he gives Tampa incredible blue-line depth.
Vatanen is the prize here as the Ducks would have trouble letting him go, but it may be worth it to acquire Drouin. In cam Fowler’s absence, Shea Theodore has shown he’s nearly NHL ready and that might ease the pain of letting Vatanen go.
While Vatanen is an RFA at seasons end, the Condra money helps Yzerman.
Why this deal won’t work
Vatanen needs a new deal at season’s end when he hits restricted free agency. He is deserving of a significant deal that may take away some cap space for the Lightning. However, he is a very nice addition and would likely play a bigger role than Lightning defensemen Nesterov who is also a restricted free agent this summer.
Sami Vatanen, 1st round conditional pick, 2017 2nd round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra, Tampa’s 2nd round pick (from Boston)
Why this deal works
This deal sends Tampa a young talented defensemen and a 1st round pick. However, the Ducks season has been a series of ups and down and they could very easily end up with a top 10 or even top 5 pick. For this deal to happen, the 1st rounder going to Tamps would have toe be lottery protected or top 5 or 10 protected. It would turn into a 2017 1st rounder if the Ducks get a high pick.
Here’s where this deal gets interesting. Tampa has two 2nd round picks this year, Boston’s pick from the Brett Connolly trade and their own, and the Ducks do not have a 2nd rounder this year. If Bob Murray moves his 1st round pick, obtaining a 2nd rounder may ease that pain.
This deal does send off the Ducks 2017 2nd rounder as well, but Murray could find a way to obtain a 2nd rounder before next years draft.
Why this deal won’t work
I don’t think Bob Murray wants to give up his first round pick for the reasons I previously mentioned. His team may end up with a very high pick and if he wants to protect that pick in someway, Yzerman may lose interest.
The condition with the first round pick could break this deal and the Ducks have drafted in the first round every year since 1999. Would Jonathan Drouin cause Murray to break that streak?
Yzerman may also not be willing to move either of his 2nd round picks and if Murray gives up a 1st rounder without obtaining one of Tampa’s second rounders, that means the Ducks wouldn’t pick until the 3rd round of this years draft, not good.
Brandon Montour, Josh Manson 2017 1st round pick
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
This deal takes out Vatanen and adds Montour. The Ducks 2017 1st rounder is now in play but Tampa would not have to send a 2nd rounder to Anaheim in this deal.
This deal may make more sense as the Ducks get to keep Vatanen and the Lightning get to keep both 2nd round picks while acquiring a player almost identical to Sami Vatanen, Montour’s ceiling is high.
Josh Manson is added here which could intrigue Yzerman.
Again, I don’t see any circumstance where Murray moves his 1st round pick unprotected. However, Tampa doesn’t lose any picks so if the 1st rounder is protected and turns into a 2017 1st round pick, I think Yzerman is okay with that.
Why this deal won’t work
Montour is a nice piece and a 1st rounder is a big acquisition especially if it is not entirely protected, but Tampa may need one more player or pick. One of the Ducks 2016 3rd rounders may be required here.
If Murray is going to give up his 2017 1st rounder he may only be willing to give up Montour and nothing else and that is where he and Yzerman may fail to see eye to eye.
Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg
FOR
Jonathan Drouin, Matthew Carle, Eric Condra
Why this deal works
Tampa would like a defensemen in return. Cam Fowler has been really good this season and would be a really nice addition. Silfverberg is a nice add as well.
This deal would allow Tampa to get rid of Carle and Condra. However, the salary cap trade off would swing in the Ducks favor as Fowler and Silfverbergs total cap hit outweighs Carle and Condra’s by $1 million.
Bob Murray may find it difficult to move Fowler but that extra $1 million could be attractive. The Ducks have also gone 3-0-1 with Fowler out of the lineup due to injury. If the Ducks continue to play well without Fowler and Shea Theodore continues to impress, does Murray make this move?
Why this deal won’t work
Carle has a no trade clause in his contract so that’s the first issue. The second is that Fowler and Silfveberg play a big role for the Ducks. However, this move would likely allow Murray to keep his first round pick.
However, there’s a reason why Carle ranks sixth in ice time amongst Tampa defensemen despite being the highest paid guy. This could be a deal that Yzerman pushes but I think Murray says no, why would he want to add another Kevin Bieksa?
There is a $1 million dollar trade off with this deal that swings in Anaheim’s favor, would Yzerman ask Murray to retain salary to even things up?
So…
As you can see there is no 100% logical deal to made here. Both teams have the pieces to build the puzzle but in a hard salary cap league, it is difficult to make any trade as the future is never certain and both teams have a lot of contract extensions to worry about.
Another reason a deal could be extremely difficult, both teams would love to gain more cap space for this offseason.
With things heating up across the league, a Drouin trade could happen fairly soon. Bob Murray should end his patience and push things into a new gear in an attempt to bring Drouin to Anaheim.
Salary cap information via Generalfanager