Anaheim Ducks Goalie Situation Is A Tricky One

The Anaheim Ducks have had a crowded crease for quite some time now and there is an urgency to make a decision on the future of John Gibson and Freddie Andersen.

This is not the first time we have discussed goaltending drama with the Anaheim Ducks. It’s been a growing topic, one that began a few years back and has now hit a high peak. Ducks general manager Bob Murray has made the right decisions in years past that have benefited the Anaheim crease, but no challenging decision has been bigger than the one he now faces.

It started with Jonas Hiller and Victor Fasth. Hiller was the reliable stable goalie while Fasth was the rising star, showing flashes of brilliance that excited fans and others around the league. Fasth suffered an injury in 2013 that kept him out of the crease for nearly the entire first half of the ’13-’14 season.

A young goalie from Denmark by the name of Freddie Andersen was recalled to back up Hiller during this time, only he did a bit more than just serve as a backup.

Andersen was brilliant in his rookie campaign and showed signs of becoming the future number one goalie in Anaheim.

Fasth was traded to Edmonton at the 2014 trade deadline and it became clear that Bob Murray and the Ducks were committed to Andersen.

This commitment spread to the ice as well, Bruce Boudreau named Andersen, not Hiller, the Ducks starting goaltender for round one of the 2014 playoffs.

Enter John Gibson stage left.

An injury to Andersen in the second round against the Kings opened the door for 20 year old John Gibson, who shutout L.A. in his first ever NHL start.

Jonas Hiller had become an after thought as it was clear Boudreau did not have faith in him and Bob Murray let the veteran walk in free agency two summers ago.

The decision was then made to focus on the development of two young goaltenders, Andersen and Gibson.

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The ’14-’15 season was supposed to be an all out battle between Andersen and Gibson for the number one spot. However, Gibson missed a significant amount of time with a groin injury and Andersen never looked back, securing the starting job to begin the 2015 playoffs.

Andersen led the Ducks to a game 7 of the western conference finals where the Ducks fell short.

The talk of the most recent offseason was again Andersen or Gibson, whose Anaheim’s guy? There was trade speculation at the draft but Bob Murray was quick to shutdown rumors, declaring Gibson was not going to be moved.

Soon after, the upcoming 2016 restricted free agent Gibson was given a contract extension. The only surprise with this extension was that it came before Andersen, also a 2016 restricted free agent, was given a new deal.

Bob Murray elected to have Gibson start this season in the AHL playing for the newly relocated San Diego Gulls. Andersen was given the deserving nod to start the year as the Ducks number one goalie and veteran Anton Khudobin was acquired to serve as a backup and allow Gibson development time in the AHL.

21 games into this season the struggling Ducks saw Andersen go down with the flu. Once again, enter John Gibson stage left.

Gibson has started every game since being recalled on November 24th and the Ducks have gone 4-2-1 with him in net. Gibson sits with a 1.47 goals against average and a .944% save percentage to go along with 2 shutouts. He was also named the NHL’s first star of the week to start December.

Did I mention that Andersen is back to full health and Boudreau has still insisted that Gibson will again start on Friday against Carolina?

Goalie drama.

Bob Murray can no longer run away from this issue. The Ducks roster sat at the maximum 23 players until Wednesday when rookie Nick Ritchie was sent down in order to clear a roster spot for Jiri Sekac who is set to return from IR.

With three goalies on the roster, a move will have to be made to clear space for another forward as the Ducks will have 13 forwards when Sekac returns. Murray typically keeps 14 forwards on his roster and the three goalie situation is eliminating that possibility.

The issue here is that the only goalie eligible to be sent down to the AHL without waivers is the goalie that has given the Ducks a newfound sense of life, John Gibson.

So the question here is, what will Bob Murray do?

Will he trade Andersen or Anton Khudobin? Will he waive Khudobin, hoping and praying that another one of his guys does not get claimed? Or does Murray say thanks for the help Gibson, but go back and develop in the AHL?

Goalie drama.

There’s a lot to factor into this equation and this is not a matter of talent prevailing. Andersen and Gibson are both extremely talented goalies capable of playing the number one role, both have a bright future.

The first thing you have to consider is money.

The Ducks are a budget team and that must be understood first and foremost. The news that next seasons salary cap may rise to $74.5 million is great, but the Ducks upper cap limit could remain around $65-67 million.

As I mentioned, Gibson is locked up for the next three seasons with his extension carrying a cap hit of $2.3 million, incredibly favorable.

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Andersen, Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell, Sami Vatanen and Jiri Sekac are all set to hit restricted free agency at seasons end and as of now, it appears that Bob Murray will only have around $10-$13 million in cap space to work with.

Does Murray feel that Andersen’s market value is high right now and that it might be time to make a move in order to spend that $10-$13 million on the other 2016 RFA’s?

One other thing to factor in here, there have been reports that talks between the Ducks and Andersen have gone virtually nowhere. Yikes.

Money rules the hockey world nowadays and this goalie decision has a huge financial impact.

The other thing to factor in is expansion.

With the board of governors meetings in Pebble Beach wrapping up, expansion plans are becoming more clear. Many think that expansion could occur as early as the 2017-2018 season. This means that a possible expansion draft is coming.

The rules of an expansion draft may change this time around in terms of player protection and salary dump, but there are plenty of things to consider from the last expansion draft that occurred in 2000.

Each team was allowed to protect a certain amount of players. So if the same rules were applied to this expansion draft then things could look as follows.

The Ducks could protect two goaltenders, such as Andersen and Gibson, and that would allow them to then protect 10 skaters (3D and 7F). If the Ducks only protected one goaltender, possibly John Gibson, then they would be able to protect 14 skaters (5D 9F).

This is absolutely something that Bob Murray will have to consider if he feels these type of rules will be in effect for an upcoming expansion draft.

The difference between protecting one goaltender or two could be huge as the Ducks have plenty of other rising stars they will seek to protect in order to keep their young core intact.

What’s keeping Bob Murray from waiving Khudobin?

A couple things are delaying this.

First, this doesn’t solve the long term plan. I mentioned future salary cap issues and the expansion draft possibility so waiving Khudobin to keep Andersen and Gibson does not help with either of those things.

There is also the fear of Khudobin being claimed off of waivers. Montreal is a team that could use some veteran help with Carey Price still out with an injury and I’m sure they are not the only team that would consider claiming Khudobin.

This also does not help the depth. If Khudobin is claimed and Gibson (or Andersen) gets injured, the Ducks would again be stuck with a backup goaltending issue.

Moving Khudobin is a short term fix and it delays a decision on the future of the Anaheim crease.

What’s keeping Bob Murray from committing to Gibson?

Plain and simple, injury history.

Gibson has struggled to stay healthy during his time with the Ducks. We have seen it recently and it led to one of the Ducks biggest issues last season, backup goaltending.

When Gibson was injured the Ducks could not find a solidified backup in Jason Lebarbara or Ilya Bryzgalov and Andersen was forced to take on a heavy workload.

If Murray elects to move Andersen, he is taking a risk. What if Gibson goes down with another injury? The Ducks are then stuck with Anton Khudobin as their guy.

This is what many believe to be the reason holding up Murray’s decision. Sportsnet’s Elliote Friedman wrote about it in his most recent “30 Thoughts” piece.

What’s keeping Bob Murray from sending Gibson back down to San Diego?

Plain and simple, the Ducks have played like a completely different team with Gibson in net.

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Obviously the Ducks terrible start makes any positive play significant at this point, but it appears as though this team has a certain trust and faith in Gibson to make big saves in close games and it appears that his calming confidence in net rubs off on others.

The entire team is playing better hockey lately and I don’t think Murray or Boudreau are eager to change anything and jeopardize ruining a critical turnaround month of December. It seems like they’re running with the hot hand of Gibson who has been incredible so far.

The age factor.

Freddie Andersen is 26, John Gibson is 22. If you don’t think this is a deciding factor in the long term grand scheme of things, your crazy.

Freddie Andersen may be entering a peak of maturity and strong play, one that most goalies see around that age of the late 20’s. How many more years does he have of being an elite goaltender?

Giving Andersen a 3-6 year deal this offseason may lock him up in his prime, but will he be deserving of another contract after that?

Gibson is already locked up until he is 25.

It’ something to consider.

History.

If Bob Murray’s history as a GM has taught us anything, it’s that he will always make the money saving and youthful decisions.

First it was Andersen over Fasth. Then it was Andersen and Gibson over Hiller. I’ve seen this movie before and unless there’s a plot twist, history says to bet on Gibson over Andersen.

John Gibson is only 22 and has an incredibly favorable cap hit for the next three years at $2.3 million, take this history lesson for what it’s worth, but it is interesting.

So what’s going to happen?

Well, I think the first thing that will happen and has probably already happened, is Murray will at least test the goalie market. How many teams would be willing to give up significant pieces in an attempt to acquire Andersen or Gibson?

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If the return is not at Murray’s asking price, history shows that he will wait until he gets what he wants. Goaltending is a necessity in this league and there will eventually be a team willing to give up good players, prospects or picks in order to snatch up Andersen or Gibson. It’s going to be about timing as Murray is not one to make a quick decision that jeopardizes the future of his team.

There’s a reason why the Ducks have drafted in the first round every year since 1999, they have always planned for the future and Bob Murray believes in this model as well which has given him so much success with player development since he took over in 2008. He’ll stay patient until he hears what he wants.

What about Khudobin to waivers? Will Murray wait until he thinks that there is no team out there willing to make a claim on Khudobin and his $2.25 million cap hit?

I don’t think a Khudobin trade is out of question, but again, that doesn’t help decide the future and the Ducks would likely get a small insignificant return.

It doesn’t appear that Gibson will be sent down anytime soon. Could a couple of bad starts change that? Yes, but the way he has played since his recall, I don’t see him leaving the crease until he plays very poorly (if that happens).

Of goalies that have started a minimum of 6 games so far this season, Gibson ranks 1st in goals against average, 2nd in save percentage and tied for 3rd in shutouts. Andersen has been really good this season as well, but Gibson’s numbers are jaw dropping so far, but again, it’s only been 6 games and more consistent play in December could speed up this decision to move a goalie.

The way I see it, Murray has two options.

Trade Andersen or Gibson. Make the future clear and commit to a goalie right now to save yourself money and expansion draft protection. This is a money saving option, one that Murray will likely have to make eventually, so why not now. Giving up on one now may come back to haunt Murray, but no team keeps two capable number one goaltenders on their roster for long, not in today’s salary cap era.
Make a short term decision. Move Khudobin or attempt to clear him through waivers and then make a decision on the future after this season. This is the risky option, not because losing Khudobin is a risk, but the risk arises from waiting things out until after the season and possibly losing Freddie Andersen or other 2016 RFA’s to an offer sheet due to money constraints. Playing the waiting game is one I don’t see the Ducks winning, there is just too much risk.

Next: Ducks Reassign Ritchie To AHL

December should be a pretty busy and entertaining month for the Ducks and Bob Murray. It should also be a nerve recking month for all three of the Ducks goaltenders.

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