The summer of 2016 presents a number of issues for Anaheim Ducks general manager Bob Murray. None of which are necessarily frightening issues however, the summer of ’16 presents the type of problems that every NHL GM would love to have. A number of young players that have proven to be vital to their team’s success, but now need new deals as their entry level contracts expire.
Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Rickard Rakell, Freddie Andersen and John Gibson were all drafted by the Ducks. All need new deals next summer. Ryan Kesler, Simon Despres and Jiri Sekac were all acquired in trades that Murray put together. All need new deals next summer. The common theme here? All have played a big role in their time with the Ducks.
The summer of ’16 financial headaches will not come as a sudden surprise however, Bob Murray has been making moves recently to put himself in a position to be able re-sign all of his young talented players. The time to start talking extensions is now however and at the top of Murray’s list is a Swedish stud blue-liner by the name of Hampus Lindholm.
Hampus Lindholm is special. You’ve probably read all the articles about his emergence as a great young defensemen and you’ve probably seen the quotes from his teammates giving him well deserved high praise. It’s no secret anymore that Lindholm is blossoming into an elite NHL defensemen.
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Lindholm was drafted 6th overall by the Ducks at the 2012 NHL draft. TSN had him ranked well below 6th but the Ducks had a hunch and that intuition has turned out to be correct. Lindholm has played like a top 4 defensemen for the Ducks the past two seasons not just in terms of ice time, but in terms of overall play as well. He was arguably the Ducks best all around defensemen last season and did I mention that he didn’t turn 21 until this past January?
Every single night Lindholm makes plays that make you smile and leave you wondering if this kid is really just 21 years of age. His poise is incredible, his skating ability is second to none and his offensive instincts are improving with each shift. It is time for Bob Murray to lock up the next great NHL defensemen and the only question left to ask is….
How much is Hampus Lindholm worth?
Exhibit A: Comparison to the greats
You may have seen a recent end of year evaluation I wrote about Lindholm where I put up a blind statistics test. In that test I compared Lindholm’s sophomore season stats to 2 hall of fame defensemen’s sophomore season stats.
Player A: 7 Goals – 34 Assists – 41 Points – +7 Rating – 0.48 Points/Game – 28 Penalty Minutes
Player B: 7 Goals – 27 Assists – 34 Points – +25 Rating – 0.44 Points/Game – 32 Penalty Minutes
Player C: 10 Goals – 36 Assists – 46 Points – +34 Rating – 0.56 Points/Game – 42 Penalty Minutes
Player A is recent Hall of Fame inductee Nicholas Lidstrom, the best Swedish defensemen of all time. Player C is Hall of Famer Scott Niedermayer, the Ducks captain of their 2007 stanley cup winning team. Player B is Lindholm. One thing to rememeber is that Lidtsrom and Scotty started their careers in an era where NHL defensemen were scoring 60 points in a season like it was nothing. Still, Lindholm’s 2nd year stats are very similar to 2 of the best to ever do it.
Exhibit B: Comparison to today’s elite NHL defensemen
Hampus Lindholm deserves at least $5 million per year in his next contract. So, I’ve narrowed it down to 6 defensemen that we can compare Lindholm to in finding out how much money he deserves. I chose these 6 defensemen because they are young, talented and are all playing under their second NHL contracts as they were all given big extensions after the expiration of their entry level deals.
Defensemen Earning $5Million-$5.5Million Per Year: Oliver Ekman-Larsson & Tyler Myers
Defensemen Earning $5.5Million-$6Million Per Year: Dougie Hamilton
Defensemen Earning North of $6Million Per Year: Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty & Alex Pietrangelo
With that, here are some old school basic stat comparisons between those 6 mentioned blue-liners and Lindholm. Since Lindholm has only been in the league for 2 seasons, I took every players two year total from their first 2 NHL seasons.
Even Strength Points (Through each players first two NHL seasons)
Goals Assist Points
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: 11G 21A 32P
Tyler Myers: 15G 39A 54P
Dougie Hamilton: 8G 23A 31P
Erik Karlsson: 13G 26A 39P
Drew Doughty: 10G 29A 39P
Alex Pietrangelo: 13G 41A 54P
Hampus Lindholm: 12G 42A 54P
Lindholm’s Rank: 4th 1st T1st
Eliminating power-play production and simply looking at even strength point production through the first 2 seasons from each player shows the true value of each player.
Now, Some Advanced Statistics Totals For You Nerds(Also through each players first two NHL seasons)
P/60= Player’s point production per 60 minutes of ice time.
CF/60= Rate of team’s shot attempts per 60 minutes while the player is on the ice.
CA/60= Rate of opposing team’s shot attempts per 60 minutes while the player is on the ice.
PDO= Total of players on ice shooting percentage plus on ice save percentage.
+/- P/60 CF/60 CA/60 PDO
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: +3 1.8P/60 115.2CF/60 104CA/60 201.8PDO
Tyler Myers: +13 2.1P/60 113.4CF/60 106.9CA/60 201.1PDO
Dougie Hamilton: +26 2.1P/60 124CF/60 96.9CA/60 204.1PDO
Erik Karlsson: -35 1.5P/60 114.8CF/60 102.6CA/60 193.4PDO
Drew Doughty: +3 1.3P/60 104.7CF/60 100.7CA/60 199.5PDO
Alex Pietrangelo: +34 2.1P/60 117.8CF/60 97.5CA/60 201.8PDO
Hampus Lindholm: +54 2.3P/60 115.1CF/60 109.2CA/60 206.7PDO
Lindholm’s Rank: 1st 1st 4th 7th 1st
Compared to the 2 players earning $5Million-$5.5Million per year (Ekman-Larsson&Myers), Lindholm ranks 1st in 5/8 categories.
Compared to the player earning $5.5Million-6$Million per year(Hamilton), Lindholm ranks 1st in 6/8 categories.
Compared to the 3 players earning north of $6Million per year(Karlsson,Doughty,Pietrangelo), Lindholm ranks 1st in 5/8 categories.
All of these stats entail what makes a good defensemen, a guy who can produce points, generate shots, surpress shots and play positive minutes. Lindholm appears to be on his way to joining this elite group of defensemen in terms of both skill and money.
So… Exhibit C: The Eye Test
Of course, to most general managers and other old school hockey people, these stats may always just appear to be numbers. I argue however that when you watch Lindholm play there is no denying that he is turning into an elite blue-liner. He has every tool. Skating, check, one of the smoothest skaters out there with great acceleration to go along with great lateral movement and a strong first step which almost always allows him to not be caught out of position. Smarts, check, Lindholm is so unbelievably calm under pressure which is something that every great defensemen must use as players like Doughty, Keith and Subban all appear so calm in their decision making with the puck and Lindholm seems to posses that same skill-set as his first pass is often the right one, he sees the game so well.
Offensive instincts, check, Lindholm is not over aggressive by any means and most of the time when you see him joining the rush it results in a quality scoring chance or a strong shot on goal. Defensive instincts, check, he is learning how to play the position defensively and credit should be given to now former Ducks defensemen Francois Beauchemin who was a vocal leader on the ice and was instrumental in Lindholm’s quick maturity as a 19 and 20 year old. It is also no accident or coincidence that Lindholm put up a +/- rating of +29 & +24 during his first 2 NHL seasons, he plays a strong 2-way game and is only getting better at the defensive end of the ice. Compete level, check, he wants to be the best and he is not only showing that through his play, he claimed that’s what he is striving for during his exit interview, he wants to be the best.
So…. After all of this… What is Hampus Lindholm worth?
No matter what you look at it is clear Lindholm deserves an elite defensemen type of second contract. Ekman-Larsson was selected 6th in his draft year just as Lindholm was in 2012. In my opinion, Lindholm desrves more than $5 million a year as he has started off his career better than OEL did.
It’s unlikely that Lindholm gets anything north of $6 million a year and he will 100% not be getting PK Subban type of money ($9Million a year). But is it crazy to think that Lindholm is worth $6 million dollars a year? Every number I provided suggests he has started off his career on the right foot and looks to be turning into a Karlsson or Doughty type of defensemen. Clearly style of play is different between the 3 but in terms of elite talent, the eye test on Lindholm shows that he is worth north of $5.5 million per year.
So, Is he worth $6 million per year? Maybe not. Is he worth $5.75 million per year? Yes.
Bob Murray has been searching for the next great Ducks defensemen ever since losing Pronger and Niedermayer. He has finally found his guy in Lindholm.
Murray has never been fond of overpaying a number of players and it is clear as the Ducks are just 1 of 6 NHL teams that do not have at least 3 players making over $5 Million per year(only Getzlaf & Perry make north of $5 million a year). That trend will change however as Hampus Lindholm is deserving of a contract that pays him a minimum of $5.5 million per year.
All Stats Via NHL.com & War-on-ice