It's been eight long years, but the Ducks are finally back in the playoffs. While their opening round matchup against the favorited Edmonton Oilers will not be easy, the Ducks at least stand a chance to make it a series. Before the puck drops on Monday night, here is recap of how the teams have fared against each other, the matchups of each position group, possible x-factors, how the Ducks could win or lose, plus a series prediction.
Head-to-head
The first knock against the Ducks. as they were 1-2 against the Oilers this season, with the only win coming at Honda Center via a 6-5 victory. The Ducks have surrendered 16 goals against the Oilers this season, while only scoring 12 themselves. Surprisingly, the Ducks' powerplay was 33 percent against the Oilers this season (4 for 12). The penalty kill was solid just allowing two goals on eight Oilers' powerplay opportunities.
Forward matchup
Any team that has arguably the best player in the entire NHL, gets the knod. As good as Leo Carlsson (67 points), Cutter Gauthier (69 points), Troy Terry (57 Points), and Beckett Sennecke (60 points) have been for the Ducks this season, Connor McDavid (138 points) is the ultimate trump card. Throw in Leon Draisaitl (97 points) and Zach Hyman (52 points), for good measure, and the Ducks are at a disadvantage from a high-end skill viewpoint.
Defense matchup
While the Oilers have the best offensive defenseman in the series, Evan Bouchard and his 95 points, the rest of their group can be exposed. Yes, Mattias Ekholm is a great a defensive defenseman and is a great compliment to Bouchard, but the Ducks have better depth. The Jackson LaCombe and Jacob Trouba pairing will probably be used as a hard counter to the McDavid line, but that leaves room for the John Carlson/Pavel Mintyukov and Tyson Hinds/Radko Gudas pairings to get their chances.
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal has not played up to his usual high standard this season, with a paltry .888 save percentage, 3.10 goals against average, and -2.9 goals saved above expected. Connor Ingram took over the net for the Oilers and posted a .899 save percentage, 2.60 goals against average, and saved 1.7 goals above expected.
X-factor
Mason McTavish
The much maligned former second line center, McTavish at least finished the regular season strong, notching five points (two goals, three assists) in the Ducks' last five games. If there was ever a time for McTavish to use his big frame, aggressive forechecking style, and quick one-timer to his advantage though, the playoffs would be the perfect opportunity. Between playing wing on the third line and being deployed on the Ducks powerplay, McTavish should be sheltered from the McDavid line and could thrive in a support role, providing the Ducks an offensive boost from the bottom six.
X-factor part two
Lukas Dostal
Dostal is more than capable of stealing a win, as he did against the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season and nearly did for Czechia against Canada in the Winter Olympics. When he is at the top his game, Dostal can put up Vezina quality numbers. For as good as Ingram has been for the Oilers, Dostal still has the pedigree and numbers to prove that he is the better goaltender.
The Ducks will win if...
Somehow, they limit McDavid to a single game without registering a point. The Oilers have won 100 percent of their games this season, in which McDavid has registered at least a point. When McDavid has not scored, the Oilers have not won. A tall task to be sure, but if the Ducks hold McDavid scoreless for at least one game, they might have a chance to win the series.
And Dostal stands on his head for at least a game or two. Other Ducks teams have gone further with less, just ask the '03 team. A hot goaltender can steal a series, and of the two opposing options in net, Dostal is likelier option to come out on top.
The Ducks will lose if...
They can't contain McDavid. No team can stop him, but if McDavid gets going, especially on the powerplay, the Ducks do not stand a chance. Plus, the Ducks defense has not been good all season, as they have a penchant for giving up high-danger chances, which will play straight into the Oilers' hands.
Series prediction
My head says this will be a high-event series, as the teams will trade scoring chances and defense will be optional. The Oilers would have the advantage in this case, as they have the superior high-end talent that favors rush-style offense.
My heart says the Ducks have exceeded our expectations and the Oilers, for all their high-end talent, are deeply flawed. No one is picking the Ducks to win the series, which just fuels my angst to prove the pundits wrong. And I'm sure the players feel the same.
Ducks in 7.
Plus, we have the Comeback on Katella.
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