Anaheim Ducks: Where is the Franchise Headed after Big Moves

By now everyone in the Ducks fandom has heard of the Hampus Lindholm, Nicolas Deslauriers, and Josh Manson, trades. Added to that Kodie Curran if you will. I’m not here to discuss the value picked up in those trades. Everyone has an opinion I’m sure, and I don’t wish to influence that at all.

Overall, the Ducks, to date have acquired:

·       2022 1st round pick

·       2023 2nd round pick

·       2023 2nd round pick

·       2024 2nd round pick

·       2023 3rd round pick

·       Drew Helleson

·       Urho Vaakanainen

·       John Moore

In a bubble that’s a lot of things for three NHL players who the franchise seemingly couldn’t come to contractual agreements with, and one AHL player who was never likely to suit up for the Ducks. But what does that mean for the future? Where do the Ducks go now?

In the simplest terms, the Ducks have finally embarked upon a genuine rebuild. They’ve seemingly flirted with the idea over the past three seasons but have ultimately just stayed in the same position, collected their own draft picks, and have seemed to desire for any push up the standings to come from within. But now there can be no debate about how the Ducks management see this team. They’re rebuilding.

What that means in the short term is hardly arguable. The Ducks are worse today than they were yesterday. It’s impossible to trade two top-4 defensemen and walk away suggesting they’re a better team. Certainly, some would imagine that Manson has been terrible these past couple seasons, and Lindholm has fallen away this season. Those same people would also denigrate Deslauriers.

Nic Deslauriers

Like most stories there are two sides. Desaluriers is the easiest to discuss, so it’s worth getting him out of the way early. A player was loved by some fans and seen as replaceable to others, Deslauriers was a mainstay of the 4th line. Depending on your desires and impressions of the average 4th liner, it’s easy enough to say that he performed in line with expectation of players who play that role, within a margin of error.

Moving the average 4th liner isn’t going to impact a team overly much, and in this case the norm will likely be met. Two area’s which could affect the team are that Deslauriers drew a significant number of penalties per his time on ice. Enough so that he’s comparable to fan-favorite Troy Terry, in each of the past three seasons. Having fewer power-play’s may be a feature of the Ducks going forward depending on who the Ducks replace him with on the roster.

What may be a significant change however is Deslauriers role on the penalty kill. This past season has seen him take a more active role on the PK unit, being the 5th most used forward, averaging 1:23 minutes per game. A number that is almost double that of Ryan Getzlaf and Sam Carrick, the most likely players to replace his minutes. Notably of the forwards who have played at least 30 minutes on the penalty kill this season, Deslauriers ranks 1st for CA/60, SA/60, GA/60 (by half the next player), and SCA/60, while being ranked 2nd for HDCA/60 and xGA/60. It’s not at all unfair to suggest that he was one of the Ducks most effective penalty killers on a team ranking 8th overall in the league for penalty killing.

Taken together, his subtraction from the team isn’t likely to leave any gaping holes nor change an upward trajectory in the playoff race, but it may slightly decrease their ability to defend a man short, as well as limiting their opportunities to score with the man advantage. We’re obviously talking about a ~8-10 minute a night player, so the magnitude of that change is unlikely to be seen at a gross level, but it’s not unfair to say an impact will be seen.

Josh Manson

Josh Manson is perhaps a little more difficult to discuss. It feels like he’s a player who is always on and off the injured reserve list. He played in 45 of the Ducks 62 games (before he was traded) this season, in 20 of 56 last season, and 50 of 71 the season prior. For a player who will be 31 before next season starts, it’s an injury risk that the Ducks seemingly couldn’t see themselves committing to.

Nonetheless, when healthy, Manson was considered a top-4 defenseman on the team. Over the past two seasons, his minutes primarily came alongside Cam Fowler, reflecting his top-4 status. As a rule, this pairing was one of the Ducks better pairings over the stated time frame, with on-ice results equating to positive CF%/60, GF%/60, SCF%/60 and HDCF%/60 numbers. Individually, this past season, Manson led the team in CA/60, GA/60, and was 2nd on the team for xGA/60, amongst defensemen with at least 10 games played. All of which he did sitting around a 99.5% PDO.

That is to suggest that the Ducks did move on from a bona fide top-4 defensive player and one who was amongst the team leaders on the defensive side of the puck. Given the Ducks sit 19th in the league, and give up 3.11 goals per game, it’s easy to imagine them slipping further away in the goals against category in the short term.

However, if age and injuries wasn’t a concern for the Ducks, Manson being incapable of playing with their younger players might have been. Despite playing few minutes with the Ducks younger defensive players, including Jamie Drysdale and Jacob Larsson, Manson’s results were simply subpar. His minutes, primarily coming last season, contributed to one of the poorest debut seasons (statistically) for a debut defenseman in years. Given that the Ducks GM has flagged a rebuild, it’s unlikely that Manson would have performed well in the future based on the results he’s show us with the younger players so far.

When presented with everything, it’s easy to imagine that the Ducks chose short term pain over what may hurt in the future.

The Future is… When?

Given the Ducks are tanking now, it’s easy to assume that they’re looking towards the future for their time in the sun again. This is where everything becomes murky. After all prediction models are largely only effective out to a two-year window. Anything could happen. The Ducks could draft a generational talent, key players could become injured, and the list goes on.

However, what we do know is that the Ducks currently have a small cohort of older players like Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique, who despite still being ok players are no longer the driving force of a successful NHL team. In two years, it’s debatable whether they will still be on the Ducks roster and if they are, there is no surprise that Father Time remains undefeated. Will they still be effective players? The answer is, unfortunately, unlikely.

Players who flirt in the middle, like John Gibson, are pure guess work. Particularly for Gibson specifically, given he’s been below average as an NHL netminder these past three years, has a history of soft tissue injury which could flare at any moment, and will be hitting his early 30’s as an adult.  Will he bounce back? Will he be effective enough to carry the Ducks deep in the playoffs? The answer is unknown, but the surrounding risks are as visible with Gibson as they were with Manson and Lindholm.

Of the younger cohort, the future is mixed. Current rostered players are a mix of hopeful greatness and uncertain optimism. Trevor Zegras carries the hopes and dreams of the franchise on his shoulders. In two seasons time, he’ll only be entering his prime scoring years, and given his trajectory as a player in his two NHL season’s thus far, he’ll likely be a star attraction in the league from an entertainment perspective and within the top 30 or so players, if not higher. Jamie Drysdale similarly hold’s a lot of hype and hope in equal measure. Depending on who you speak with, in his years to date, he’s shown everything and more. To others, he’s been disappointing and confusing. It’s certainly hopeful that in two season’s Drysdale will be approaching consistently good play, although given the general trajectory of defensive players, two-to-four years might be a more realistic outlook. Troy Terry is the other young player with hope riding on his shoulders. A healthy scratch for much of the previous four seasons, he’s burst onto the scene this year scoring one of every four shots. The hope is that he can both maintain that scoring pace, but if he doesn’t, that he’ll continue to contribute meaningfully to the roster. At this stage, that future is uncertain as there is little precedence for it, although underlying statistics suggest he’ll be a reasonable middle-6 forward if his shooting percentages and overall scoring declines. It is worth noting that in two years, he’ll be 26 and exiting his prime scoring years. In four years, he’ll presumably be in the same boat as Rickard Rakell now. That is to say, effective, yet no longer a driving force on the team.

The Ducks have further players in the younger demographic including Max Comtois, Isac Lundestrom Max Jones, and even Sam Steel, who could all conceivably be around in two-to-four years’ time, and each will be somewhere around their scoring primes. Steel is possibly the least likely of that group to be a useful scorer given he’s 24-years-old now and will be exiting his prime scoring years in the two-year time frame. Ditto for Jones. Comtois and Lundestrom, who could be hitting their strides in a meaningful way. And Lundestrom’s offensive upside is questionable as is Comtois a big question mark given the drop off from last season to this current one.

Within the junior, college, and feeder (AHL) systems, the Ducks have numerous prospects, including some of which were acquired recently. It could be presumed that the forwards sitting round 20-years of age, like Brayden Tracey and Jacob Perreault won’t likely be at the peak of their powers for another three-to-four years, even should they graduate to the NHL sooner. It may be slightly longer for defensive players like Henry Thrun and the recently acquired Drew Helleson, although one hopes that they too, hit their strides around 24 years of age.

What all of this suggests is that the Ducks may start their upward climb in the standings in another two years, but likely won’t be in the mix as genuine playoff performers for another three or four seasons. Certainly, some players may surprise and really come on strong, however, it’s worth considering that next season will be the first season of pro hockey for players like Thrun and Helleson. Giving them two-years to become bona fide top-4 defensemen is siding on the optimistic side, no matter how good they may eventually become.
It should also be noted that any draft picks, selected have anywhere from a four-to-six-year window, unless they are of course generational talents, before they can be included as effective parts of a team. High draft selections like Zegras can certainly come into the team early and contribute, however, that is the exception and not the norm.

Given the Ducks have traded away talent, it’s likely the Ducks will be drafting in the top-10 for a couple more seasons, even given the young talent they have. That top-10 talent could jump in early, and if they do, would likely fit the time frame of two-to-four years provided. The later picks, including 1st rounders at the end of the first round, such as the recently acquired Boston Bruins selection, and those coming in the second round and later, should not be expected to contribute to the team in a meaningful way for at least four seasons. Even then, unless the team drafts a fantastic player who exceeds their draft position, the odds are that they won’t be acquiring a top-6 goal scorer or top-pairing defenseman in those draft slots.

With that said, what we can surmise is that the current Ducks management group is eyeing the next two years as purely development seasons, and as part of the tanking and rebuilding process. I would envision that they begin looking to genuinely improve in two seasons time and be hoping to be a genuine play-off fancy in fours seasons. From there, they likely have a four-year window to succeed or fail based on their merits.

So, What Now?

Assuming the Ducks are eyeing off that two-to-four-year window, what else is in store for us fans? Personally, while many of the moves made in recent days were likely necessary, they may not necessarily drive upward movement in the standings, outside of Helleson, should he turn it on as a top-4 defenseman. Thus from here, I’d expect two things.

1. Further trades. If Verbeek and the Ducks brass, are planning a very real rebuild, then they may not have gone far enough yet. I would anticipate all of the players currently over 24-years-old to be progressively moved off the team over the next two seasons. Rickard Rakell is the obvious first of these to go, and as a current UFA, it’s likely he’ll be moved soon after this article goes to press. Sonny Milano has had a resurgence this past season hitting career highs at 25-years-old. He’ll be turning 29 in four season’s time, and even should he follow up this season’s scoring next year, he’ll be on the downward trend by the time the Ducks are turning it on. Henrique, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Jakob Silfverberg will likely be shifted as their contracts near the end, and John Gibson’s destiny is anyone’s guess. Although the Ducks do already have their future goaltender in the fold, so it may simply be a matter of waiting for him to emerge as an NHL option.

2. I strongly believe that the Ducks will parlay some of the draft capital they’ve acquired in recent days into young players in the 20-to-23-year-old age backet. If 2nd round picks in the 2023 draft won’t drive the Ducks success, goal scoring players like the Ducks rumored trade target Dominik Kubalik just might. One player who might be intriguing to Pat Verbeek, is Filip Zadina. He’s not at all come on strong since he’s entered the NHL but has significant draft pedigree and obviously was a player for the Detroit Red Wings while Pat Verbeek was there. Would a swap of the higher scoring, but similar aged, Max Comtois and some of that draft capital be enough to pry Zadina away from the Red Wings? Does Verbeek believe he has enough upside to warrant such a trade? Nonetheless, whether at this trade deadline, or anytime between the upcoming NHL draft and next season’s, I would envisage the Ducks turning the recently acquired picks into players to who will fit the timeline the Ducks appear to be travelling upon.

What is certain, is that the 2022 trade deadline was the start of the road for the Ducks departure on an earnest rebuild. The new GM signaled his intentions by trading some fan favorites and ensuring that there could be no debate as to what the team was looking to achieve in the short term. His career from here, will likely reflect that of the franchise he’s been seen fit to lead. Should the Ducks succeed, the school of Stevie Y will continue to flourish, and Verbeek will be considered a master architect. Should the Ducks never truly rebuild and end up as the USA version of the Oilers, then it will be a far less rosy outcome for all involved.

**Statistics primarily collected from naturalstattrick. Player information such as age etc, was gathered from puckpedia.**