Anaheim Ducks: Reaching for Mason MacTavish is a Good Thing
Why This Little Reach Is a Good Thing for the Anaheim Ducks
First, let’s talk about the reach. In Murray’s entire tenure with the Anaheim Ducks, it’s hard to find a first-round draft selection that was truly off the board. Looking back, Hampus Lindholm was perhaps the biggest “reach” of the group and even he was a pretty safe bet.
In recent seasons, Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale were as close to Murray’s M.O. as could possibly be imagined, in a playmaking pivot and a mobile defensive player. Brayden Tracey was amongst the best options available in his draft position. Nick Ritchie was one of the strongest scorers in his draft class. The list goes on.
This is what makes the McTavish selection so exciting. There were clear options for Murray to go in. William Eklund was the Swedish two-way forward with NHL-ready play. We know how much Bob Murray loves those. Simon Edvinsson was the tall-framed Swedish defenseman. The Ducks don’t have the moniker of Swedenheim for no reason.
Dylan Guenther was the pure goal scorer from the WHL. Given the sheer number of WHL players the Ducks drafted this season, it would be incredibly out of the ordinary for the Ducks to not have scouted Guenther. It’s also noteworthy to mention previous WHL scoring star Emerson Etem was once drafted by the Anaheim Ducks. The possibilities for Murray to stick to his type were all there.
Instead of taking the well-worn path, Murray opted to go for what is essentially the biggest boom or bust chance of his career. As mentioned above, a not-exciting D-1 season in the OHL probably holds him back from being a true top-3 selection.
He is, however, a player who we could have seen jump high in his draft-year season if it had existed. Instead, that was wiped out and we only have to look upon what he did in the Swiss second-tier men’s league. Which, all in all, wasn’t bad, but probably presents mid-teens value given the lack of comparison to his peer group.
The risk, and the reward, however, are relative. McTavish is at the very least a third-line pivot in the NHL. Like all Murray’s first-round draft picks, there is an NHL player to be found. That isn’t particularly exciting given we’re talking about a #3 overall draft selection.
But additionally, we’re probably not talking about Nail Yakupov either. Thus, when we’re talking about risk, we’re not talking about a player who won’t ever make it in the NHL. The risk is that he may not live up to his draft billing, or that other players may supersede him in the way that David Pastrnak has superseded Nick Ritchie in the eyes of the fandom.
However, the reward is relative as well. If McTavish does pan out, he potentially has the tools to be a better NHL player than any of the names drafted in this season’s draft. Eklund perhaps lacks the room in his tool kit for any further growth. Yes, he will get better, but how much better is debatable.
Edvinsson is a tall defensive player— a type the Ducks don’t really need— who goes missing on defense at times. The Anaheim Ducks have been burnt drafting from the WHL in the past, and Guenther doesn’t have the versatility that McTavish presents. Nor does he play “Ducks” hockey.
Most pertinently, aside from Zegras, we kind of know how most of the Ducks high draft picks have turned out. Ritchie never really made it and was traded away. Jacob Larsson is the whipping boy for most of the fan base. Max Jones looks to be a 3rd liner. Sam Steel hasn’t really shown anything at the NHL level.
Isac Lundestrom looks to top out as a third-line pivot. Drysdale is a little too early to tell, but he presented one of the worst statistical seasons by any debut defenseman in modern history. These are all NHL players, but their ability to impact a game is debatable for now. They were all “safe” picks. Murray didn’t need to think outside the box to acquire them.
On this timeline, the Anaheim Ducks needed to take some chances on big-time scorers. For the most part, the Ducks have been unwilling to do that. One needs only look back two drafts to see the Ducks let Arthur Kaliyev slide to the Kings, as they took the safe selection of Brayden Tracey.
That seemingly changed last season when they selected Jacob Perreault at the end of the first round. Perreault was one of the best players with the highest chance of becoming a star when he was selected last season, so in that sense, the Ducks didn’t do much to get him. However, his lack of defensive play and nous was what makes him an unlikely draft selection for Bob Murray’s Ducks.
McTavish presents a greater opportunity than Perreault to create value out of nothing. It’s been a weird season for drafting with the Covid pandemic throwing everything into turmoil. The Buffalo Sabres were mentioned a few months ago as being higher on this draft than most, and believing that they could find value in the middle and end of the first round where most other teams may not.
To my mind, I think it’s incredibly exciting that the Anaheim Ducks have walked away from the well-worn path with their two last first-round selections. Jacob Perreault was a fine get and I believe that his success has in some way paved the way for Murray to alter his M.O. away from safe selections. McTavish has a very interesting toolset and if he can “boom” then I think the Ducks will walk away with a win here.