Anaheim Ducks: Comparing Contributions of 2020 and 2021 Defensemen
The NHL’s trade deadline is coming up in but a few weeks. This means that Bob Murray will need to make some decisions regarding players on the Anaheim Ducks roster in both the short-term and with the impending expansion draft this season, perhaps the longer term as well.
There are also many comments around removing coach Dallas Eakins from his coaching position. While I have previously made my thoughts on this somewhat clear, a more numerical approach may provide some illumination on the jobs he’s done thus far this season, as well as providing some context on the players whose time as Ducks may presently be up for debate.
With that in mind, this article will only attempt to look briefly at the defensive players who skated with the Ducks last season and this season, as a simple guide to their level of play. While many players such as Jacob Larsson have seemingly taken significant steps backward this season, a numerical approach may find aspects of his play that go unnoticed during live play.
A full deep dive into the analytics would take far too long for all aspects of the game, however, it may not be entirely necessary to do so. The Anaheim Ducks are currently giving up 3.32 goals per game. That is but 0.45 goals under the league median.
One could make the argument that a Ducks team with a healthy Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson could shave half a goal per game off their goals-against average. It may not be world-beating, but it would be enough to win a playoff berth.
Conversely, the Ducks are relatively healthy upfront and are currently scoring 2.23 goals per game. This ranks them as the 30th team for scoring at the time of writing, and 0.74 goals per game below the league median. To create some perspective, over an 82-game season, the Ducks would need to find another ~61 goals just to reach the middle of the league. Based on last seasons scoring numbers, that would be another 3x Jakob Silfverberg‘s or 2x Patrick Kane‘s, just to reach the middle of the league.
Given the above, the Ducks’ focus should be on developing offense, and thus, this article will primarily look at changes in individual offensive stats. With all due respect to time and efficiency, this article will look at the returning blue line players, while another in the near future will delve into the forwards.
From The Blue Line
Dallas Eakins has an approach in which demands that all of his defensemen join the rush, pinch, and otherwise become aggressive in the offensive zone. Given the sheer volume of odd-man rushes the Ducks give up on a game-to-game basis, whether this is a fundamentally good idea may be debated.
Nonetheless, all the blue-liners from Cam Fowler to Ben Hutton are expected to activate. Six of the current defensive players have been involved in both the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, thus they will be our focus.
The Anaheim Ducks Defenseman as a Group
Before delving into the individuals it’s worth looking at their accumulative results. Thus given putting up points is the primary concern on the offensive end, it’s worth noting that the returning Anaheim Ducks defensive group is scoring at a reduced rate of ~264.5%. Quite simply, they’re struggling to have an offensive impact on the game and this is despite a ~253% increase in shooting percentage! It’s astounding really.
Nonetheless, the mechanics behind it are a little frightening. Individual shot attempts have increased by ~42 and that is the extent of the positive offensive contributions from the blue line. Conversely, assist numbers have declined (~193.7%), as have individual expected goals (~48.5%), unblocked shot attempts (~37.3%), shots on net (~64.7%), scoring chances (~27.3%), high danger chances (~110.1%), rush attempts (~23.3%), and rebounds created (~107.5%).
It’s almost as if the blueliners have been tasked to shoot at will without any regard to shot quality or setting up teammates in better locations. With that said, the Anaheim Ducks offensive system seems heavily reliant on dumping the puck into the corner, before yo-yo’ing the puck back to the point for a shot from there, thus these numbers check out with the “eye test.”
Unfortunately, this returning defensive group has also presented increases in penalty minutes per 60 minutes of play (~320.3%) and giveaways (~166.2%) between last season and the present, though these are perhaps more heavily related to defensive play than offensive.
As an unrelated point of interest before looking at the individual players, this returning group has presented a ~410.3% increase in hits, suggesting that they have increased their physical play somewhat. Perhaps more notable is that they are blocking shots at a significantly reduced rate from last season (~72.4%).
This decrease has somewhat mimicked league trends this season, however, across the league goal-scoring hasn’t noticeably been altered by this trend. The Ducks however are letting in far more goals this season, thus one wonders if a high blocking game may be more efficient to their success with the netminders they have. It’s something that maybe could be explored in the future.
Cam Fowler
As a general rule, Cam Fowler has taken a step back from last season on the offensive end. However, in some respects, last season was an outlier in his career. His 9 goals in 59 games was a career-high pace and his 40-point overall pace would have matched his career-high set in his rookie season.
Nonetheless, Fowler’s goal-scoring has declined by ~44.7% and even an increase in primary and secondary assists can pad his points totals to those of last seasons. Overall, Fowler has seen a ~7.8% decline in scoring.
While points totals aren’t everything, Fowler is notably shooting less (~21.5% fewer shots) and has seen a ~29.4% decline in shooting percentage. It’s not a strong recipe for blue line scoring. Given that Fowler has primarily been paired with Jani Hakanpaa this season, he does not get the excuse that newcomer Kevin Shattenkirk is stealing his shot share.
In fact, Fowler’s unblocked shot attempt numbers have actually climbed by over 10% (~10.9%) from last season. It’s that the number of his shots that are either blocked or simply miss the net has increased.
Potentially, this is a systemic issue that is worth discussing. However, it has been suggested in the past that shots from the point are often blocked contributing to rush attempts heading the other way. We’ve seen numerous rush attempts against the Fowler-Hakanpaa pairing, and perhaps the lack of penetration and accuracy on Fowlers shot is a contributing factor here.
However, with all this negativity there are of course some rays of sunshine breaking through the clouds. Fowler has increased the number of individual scoring chances and high-danger chances he creates by ~31% and ~13% respectively, between this season and last.
On a team that typically struggles to create greasy goals in the blue paint, Fowler has also increased the number of rebounds he has created by ~137%. A clearly massive improvement that may have contributed to his increased assist numbers.
For completeness, Fowler has also cut down on his giveaways by ~31.2% and increased his ability to strip the puck from the opposition by ~20%. From this, we can suggest that his ability to transition the puck from defense to offense is still strong, though this would require zone entry data which is outside the scope of this particular article.
Hampus Lindholm
Unfortunately, for the Ducks, Hampus Lindholm has been injured for a great portion of this season. A shame it certainly is given his purely offensive numbers. An ~466.7% increase in goals scored per 60 minutes is a massive improvement, although his assist numbers have taken quite a hit. Nonetheless, Lindholm’s improvement in scoring output of ~21.1% would put him back on a 27-point pace and a little closer to the rest of his career’s offensive numbers.
Like Fowler, Lindholm presents a fairly large dip in the number of shots he gets on net. What is different to Fowler, however, is that Lindholm’s shots count. An increase in shooting percentage of ~599.1% is driving his goals scored per 60 minutes numbers. Though some context is in order. Lindholm has scored only 2-goals this season, he’s just done it in a far more efficient fashion than last season.
As with overall shots on net, Lindholm has presented fewer blocked and unblocked shot attempts this season, and has largely been less threatening, with a decrease in scoring chances of ~8.4%. Perhaps, Lindholm has worked on his shot to some degree over the offseason and is picking his shots a little better this season than in the past. Along with a massive increase in goals scored, Lindholm has also increased the number of rebounds he created by ~17% over last season’s efforts.
As an aside, Lindholm has also increased his takeaway numbers by ~11.7% and subsequent rush attempts by ~41.7%. Lindholm on the rush may not necessarily be the most optimal use of the Ducks’ strongest defensive player, however, it does show a clear intent to activate as an offensive threat. A subsequent increase in expected goals of ~35% is a clear improvement on the offensive end and an indication of what the coach wants from this player.
Jacob Larsson
Jacob Larsson seems to be everyone’s favorite whipping boy on the defensive end this season, and at least with regards to offensive contributions, this may be somewhat warranted. Having scored no goals yet this season, Larsson has declined in this area of the ice, and unfortunately, his assist numbers have also declined by ~57.4%.
It’s not a particularly good look for Larsson, though perhaps some blame should be shifted to his regular skating partner, Ben Hutton, who is not a particularly strong player despite what Jamie Drysdale was able to achieve alongside him in his debut game.
Larsson has presented a decrease in overall shot attempts (~0.7%), shots on net (~18.3%), scoring chances (~28.6%), rush attempts (~51.9%), and perhaps most notably, has produced no high danger chances yet this season.
If there are positives to be had within Larsson’s play this season, then it would be that he has reduced his giveaway numbers by ~29.2% and has improved his shot-blocking by 22.9%. Offensively however his only strong improvement is the number of rebounds he has created has increased by ~14.8%.
Given those numbers, it could be assumed that Larsson should shoot the puck more. However, his inability to do so likely stems from the puck being in the other team’s hands more often than not.
Jani Hakanpaa
If there is a player the Anaheim Ducks broadcast team loves more than Jani Hakanpaa I am not aware of him. He’s getting more minutes per game than he did last season and well, it’s hard to argue that he’s really filling his end of the deal. However, offensive contributions aren’t necessarily Hakanpaa’s game, so how’s he doing in his second real season in the NHL?
Well, Hakanpaa is getting the puck on net with a little more regularity (~7.5%), however, it hasn’t translated to goal scoring as he is yet to tally one this season. He is also struggling to create rebounds, presenting a significant drop (~76.2%) from last season.
The rest of his offensive contribution is a little spotty. He has increased his assist numbers by 12%, though it’s worth noting how few he had last season (none). Similarly, his ability to create high-danger chances has increased by 12%, though again he had none last season. On the negative side, expected goals have decreased by ~12.5% as have shot attempts (~19.1%) and scoring chances (~44.2%).
Hakanpaa is also a turnover machine, committing ~176% more turnovers this season than last, and becoming one of the team leaders in this metric. A frightening number, given how little he handles the puck. These turnovers can kill offensive momentum and can create havoc on the defensive end.
Josh Mahura
Josh Mahura was drafted as a purely offensive defenceman and many who have watched the San Diego Gulls team have wanted him to get a chance with the parent Anaheim Ducks in recent years. So far this season, it’s hard to argue one way or another, whether Mahura has shown a marked improvement in his play as he’s aged. Turning 23-years-old in 2 months, Mahura still has some time to work it out. Yet, that time with the Ducks may be running short if his results aren’t there.
With that said, Mahura has seen a modest reduction in his scoring rate by ~29.1% from last season, and predictably this result has been replicated across many other metrics, such as his assist rates and individual expected goals ratings.
However, there are numerous points of positivity that may behoove the Ducks to persevere with him for a little longer. Mahura has increased his total shot attempt rates by ~25.1%, his ability to create scoring chances by ~33%, and his shots on net by ~14.1%. With that said, Mahura has taken the ideology of becoming more aggressive to heart.
He’s transitioning the puck and generating rushes significantly more than prior seasons (~86.8%). He does have a propensity to give the puck away (~89.4%) more than he has in the past, somewhat blunting these aggressive drives and creating defensive issues for his own team, however, it may be a play style that agrees with him if he can improve his puckhandling over the coming offseason.
With regards to aggressive play, it should also be noted that Mahura has increased his rate of physical play (hits) by more than all skaters bar Sonny Milano, to the tune of ~376% While there are certainly more prolific hitters on the team, Mahura is showing some intent in this regard in an attempt to stick with the parent club. Nonetheless, it doesn’t appear to have helped him, with the Ducks recently reassigning him to the AHL team.
Josh Manson
It may be a little unfair to include Josh Manson in this group given that he has spent most of the season on the injury list. However, for completeness, he’s here. Manson has yet to score in his 6 games this season, thus we look to other statistics to see what he’s been able to do when healthy.
Like a few of the Anaheim Ducks, Manson has increased his share of shot attempts (~31%) but is getting few shots through to the net (Fenwick ~41.4%, Shots on net ~29.3%). It fits with the theory that the Ducks blueliners are getting the green light to shoot at will, or rather that they’re being tasked to shoot from suboptimal positions on the ice.
Subsequently, Manson has seen declines in scoring chances (~9.9%), high-danger chances (~100%, he has none this season), rebound creation (~100%, he has none this season), and individual expected goals (~75%).
However, Manson is one of the safer players the Ducks have on their blue line with regards to puck retention, and he has improved his turnover rate by ~40.1%. It’s not hard to imagine that the Ducks will welcome him back into the team as soon as he’s healthy. After all, simply having the puck more is likely to ease pressure on the Ducks’ netminders and help to contribute to strong offensive forays.
Wrapping It Up
What Bob Murray and his Ducks will do with this defensive group remains to be seen. Kevin Shattenkirk easily fits into the top 4 group and his price is well worth what his contribution is to the team. Jamie Drysdale is certainly a big part of the future, whether he remains with the Anaheim Ducks for the remaining games this season or not.
The question then should be asked what further contribution the Ducks require from their blueliners. Cam Fowler is unlikely to go anywhere and Hampus Lindholm is as close to a rock that they have.
Thus questions will be asked of Josh Mahura, Jacob Larsson, and Jani Halanpaa. At face value, Hakanpaa has to be the first player out of the team based on his relatively poor offensive contributions and that he’s one of the worst offenders for turning the puck over, on the Ducks blue line. Of the questionable players, only Mahura turns the puck over with greater regularity.
Mahura, however, appears to have a niche role in that he creates more rush attempts with his skating than any other blueliner the Ducks are currently icing. He also creates the 3rd most high-danger chances and 2nd most scoring chances amongst the defensive group.
Nonetheless, With Fowler, Shattenkirk, and Drysdale in the fold, an offensive defenceman with a lesser aura may be considered surplus to needs. Though for fans, it’s worth noting that Mahura’s scoring rate is higher than all but Drysdale whose numbers are quite slanted after picking up two points in his debut game.
In essence, Mahura sits nicely amongst the Anaheim Ducks defense and has comparable numbers to Fowler across many metrics. Given that he’s much younger, cheaper, and seemingly doesn’t have a place going forward, he could provide a key trade chip moving into this trade deadline.
The final player, Jacob Larsson, appears to be destined to become a 3rd pairing defenceman. For the most part, his results exceed Hakanpaa’s, with the only individual stat recorded he loses out in being hits. If the Ducks are looking for a relatively steady 3rd pairing guy, then Larsson is good enough for now.
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If Hakanpaa is merely in the team for his physical play, then it shouldn’t be a big stretch for Larsson to add that to his game. He’s already blocking more shots, why not add the hits. It seems like his game has evolved away from offensive contributions and perhaps that’s for the best.
Taken together, I think Hakanpaa should be dropped, Mahura traded for value, and Larsson continued to be developed as a 3rd pairing defensive defenceman. While many may suggest that Mahura would be better kept, I’m just not certain that he would continue fitting on the roster moving forward. Perhaps more to the point, it’s worth trading from a strength to fill a weakness. For a player who’s already been moved back to the AHL, that may be the Ducks’ best move this coming trade deadline.
What is extremely debatable, is whether the Ducks have developed these players in a meaningful way. Certainly, Mahura and Larsson have presented meaningful changes in their play, however, it’s questionable as to whether these changes are in the best interests of the player and team.
Mahura has certainly be developed enough to be considered a solid trade option, though I truly question whether Larsson’s play is what the Ducks desire from their former first-round pick. Bob Murray should have some questions to ask of his coach in this regard, and indeed of the Ducks’ overall strategy.
Next. Nicolas Deslauriers Has Earned His Place. dark
Data was collected from naturalstattrick.com and is true for even-strength minutes only unless otherwise stated. All percentages are based on per 60 minutes rate data and as such context needs to be taken into account when perusing the data. Data is correct prior to the Arizona Coyotes game played on 20th March 2021.