Anaheim Ducks: Lukas Dostal is Coming to North America
The Anaheim Ducks are bringing Lukas Dostal to North America. Cue the Goalie controversy or cue the correct and excellent path of player development.
By now, everyone has heard the news that the Anaheim Ducks hottest young netminder since John Gibson is jumping across the pond and making his way to training camp. For those out of the loop, Tampereen Ilves tweeted a highlight reel last week.
NHL-seura @AnaheimDucks on käyttänyt Lukáš Dostálin lainasopimukseen sisältyneen oikeutensa ja kutsunut tšekkimaalivahdin liittymään organisaatioonsa.
— Tampereen Ilves (@ilveshockey) November 25, 2020
Thank You, Dosty! 💛💚
📝 Tiedote: https://t.co/IUQpE3FYoz#Ilves #Liiga #NHLDucks pic.twitter.com/oCFfL6t0ln
It’s an interesting move for Lukas Dostal to come over to North America from a particularly good situation in Finland. Firstly, he comes from a relatively safe country, that has had more progress in flattening the curve with COVID-19, and moves to a less ideal situation within the United States.
Secondly, and perhaps more pertinently, Dostal will be coming from an advantageous position where he is currently getting significant game time and, pretty much, without hyperbole, dominating the competition while doing it.
Nonetheless, he is making the move across the pond. What exactly that move entails, however, is still uncertain. Firstly, the Anaheim Ducks are currently without a backup netminder to play behind John Gibson and they’re short on money to sign a good one.
In a season that the Ducks have voiced their intention to contend a cheap contract player like Dostal could be the fix if his play continues. However, that raises the question of whether playing 15-20 games pro-rata, given no one currently knows what the season will look like, is in the best interests of Dostal’s development.
There is also the consideration that perhaps Ryan Miller is coming back and is merely waiting for the Anaheim Ducks to make some moves regarding their cap situation prior to signing on the dotted line. If this is the case, Dostal would seem destined for AHL duties with the San Diego Gulls. The top levels of Finnish hockey aren’t too dissimilar to the AHL, so there should be a relatively easy transition coming over from Europe.
Eventually and inevitably, Dostal will be required to ply his trade on the smaller ice surfaces of North America. The question then becomes what happens to Anthony Stolarz and what is the timeline for Dostal taking over from Gibson in the net?
That’s not to say that Dostal would jump straight from the AHL to taking the starter’s job. However, it is likely that a similar scenario to Gibson and Frederick Andersen would unfold. Dostal would take a 1B role behind Gibson and eventually push him out the door and take the job in a couple of years later.
Yet, another option is that Dostal is merely coming over for training camp, before heading back to Europe. In a lot of ways, this could make some sense, though it is unlikely. However, the Director of Sports at IIves has left the door open should that be the case.
“If Lukas still needs Ilves’ help on his way to the NHL games, we will continue to give it to him, but at this point we want to wish him luck in the next challenges in North America.” -Timo Koskela
At this stage, it seems highly unlikely that the Anaheim Ducks would consider taking Dostal out of a fantastic situation to have him be the 4th strong netminder behind Gibson, Miller, and Stolarz. Something would either have to give. At face value, it would seem that the current strongest options in the development pathway are that Dostal would either be given the reigns of the AHL net or he will be sent back to Finland after getting a taste of North American action and spending time with the team.
Option A is potentially the strongest option on paper, as it has the same benefits of significant game time as option B, but with the added upside of Dostal learning the Ducks current system of defensive play on the smaller ice surface. There is also the option of him gaining NHL exposure through the year. If anything, Gibson’s development pathway very likely gives a fair indication of what Dostal’s could look like.
Will History Repeat Itself?
How the Anaheim Ducks could play the Dostal situation is perhaps seen in their somewhat recent history. Notably how current netminder John Gibson was brought into the team.
Going way back to the 2013-2014 season, the prevailing thinking was that the Ducks would use the 2-year contract extension of Viktor Fasth to allow Gibson to develop in the AHL. Jonas Hiller and Fasth would take the reigns with the parent club and Gibson would get the bulk of the starts in the AHL. At present, the Ducks have the Hiller equivalent (and if you don’t buy that, please go back and watch Hiller’s San Jose Sharks playoff series win) in net, with John Gibson locked up.
Hiller was a concussion risk as his career with the Ducks wound up, yet Gibson himself has some lower body issues that are traditionally likely to flare up as a netminder ages. The Anaheim Ducks currently don’t have a Fasth equivalent, however, whoever they put in will likely only be for a short period of time. It could be Miller. It could be Stolarz. Whichever direction they move in won’t be a permanent position.
However, coming into the 2014-2015 season, the landscape had changed. Fasth was traded to Edmonton. Gibson made his NHL debut in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and for the most part, excelled. Whether coming into the NHL in the postseason under renowned goalie-killing coach Bruce Boudreau was the best thing for Gibson long-term, is perhaps debatable.
However, that is an issue that is long in the past now. Nonetheless, 2014-2015 saw Gibson take a backup role, more or less, with the Ducks senior squad. He ended up playing 23 games with the senior squad and 11 more in the AHL. However, notably, his frail 22-year-old frame folded but five games into the season and he was out for some period of time with a now prevailing groin injury.
It’s worth noting here that one of Coach Boudreau’s former star netminders, Semyon Varlamov, was perhaps brought into the NHL before his time and he too has had a career stricken with lower-body injuries. Varlamov has had a 12-year career (to date) and in six of those years, he’s played in fewer than 50 games, not inclusive of his debut season. Four of the years prior to his 28th birthday he played in fewer than 40 games.
For those looking to compare Gibson’s superiority, consider that Varlamov has a .915% save percentage in 493 games, compared to Gibsons .918% in 287 games. They’re not dissimilar. If not for the Anaheim Ducks choosing Gibson over Andersen, or the Capitals choosing Holtby over Varlamov, they might even be considered closer in their career trajectories.
There are no doubt nuances to the comparison and it’s not the purpose of this commentary to explore those nuances. However, I believe it’s worth noting that similar goalies (both “acrobatic” netminders) were brought into the NHL at a young age when they perhaps were not quite ready to carry that burden.
Jumping back to Gibson, in 2015-2016, the 22-year-old Gibson was back starting in the NHL, but with a hot new contract and the following commentary of Bob Murray (excerpt from the hockey news) to go with that:
“He’s very clear,” Murray said. “His agent (Kurt Overhardt) and I talked a lot about this situation. (Overhardt) was very helpful because he knew it was the best situation for John moving forward. Early on this year, things could be rough, but he knows exactly. I had a long talk with him two nights ago. He knows what my game plan is. He knows what I think of him. He’s on board right now. He’s prepared for that. Injuries happen – and have happened in goal – every year for the past four or five years. We’ve always had injuries. That’s why I’m a little more comfortable with our goaltending right now. I won’t be searching for somebody in November, I don’t think.”
The rest then is history. Gibson went on to play 40 games that season for the Anaheim Ducks and co-won the William M Jennings Trophy with Frederick Andersen, for the netminder(s) who had played at least 25 games for a team with the lowest goals against. From there, Gibson established himself as one of the league’s superior netminders, when healthy.
This reputation has perhaps lost a little shine over the past two seasons, however, he’s been an excellent and perhaps even underrated netminder despite being buried behind an underwhelming defensive unit and Dallas Eakins no-defence defensive scheme at times.
Bringing It Back To Dostal
How this then relates to Dostal is that the situation could easily shift to see an NHL debut perhaps before his time. At this stage of the game, Dostal is but 20 years of age and is very slight of build. That isn’t to suggest that Dostal is “too small” to be an NHL goalie. He sits only two inches shorter than Gibson, and one inch shorter than Ryan Miller. However, Dostal also has the frame of a 20-year-old and not the robust physique of an older and more experienced player.
Dostal’s frame may not be the biggest issue in the world, however, consider that within the proposed hub for the 2020-2021 season, the Anaheim Ducks will likely be playing against the Dallas Stars. Corey Perry plays for the Dallas Stars. You know, that guy who accidentally falls on purpose into the opposition netminder?
Yeah, you used to love him. Would it be out of the ordinary to see a 6’3” big framed Perry fall onto the young and fresh-faced slight framed Dostal, just to say hello and welcome to the NHL? Perry isn’t the only player in the league who loves running netminders. Old Captain Knees (Dustin Brown) still plays for the LA Kings.
There should also be some concern, as there should be with all young players, that an increase in training load (read all physical exercise) can increase the risk of succumbing to injury. For instance, one study, of which there are many, suggests that an increase in loading of >15% from week to week, can increase the risk of injury by between 21-49%. We’re also discovering that soft tissue (muscle, tendon, or ligaments) may still react to loads placed upon them up to 4 weeks prior.
It wouldn’t take much for Gibson to succumb to a groin strain, given the strongest predictor of future injury is previous injury history and age. Similarly, the most likely backup option is the old as time, Ryan Miller. Who knows when he could go down with an injury, despite him being relatively robust in his career to date.
We only need to look at the Gibson scenario, to see that due to injuries at one point in time the Ducks rolled (pun intended) their goalie coach, Dwayne Roloson. What then if Dostal is the man on the spot and the Ducks don’t have enough coverage to give him the odd night off? Given the current salary cap concerns, it seems at least plausible that the Ducks may struggle to bring in a backup in short order.
It’s not to say that Dostal would get hurt in that initial spell in net, but that should he go directly back to the AHL and take the starter’s job, that additional player load from training and playing could stay with him for longer than anticipated. The point is that while an AHL goalie should be prepared to play in the NHL, it wouldn’t take much for Dostal to see NHL action this coming season, and it wouldn’t take much for him to get hurt without a physically robust frame to withstand the rigors of the current game. The Anaheim Ducks will need to be aware, and to manage, all of these variables in a way that they haven’t necessarily shown they’ve been able to do in the past.
Following on from that, the Ducks currently do not have a backup netminder signed for next season, and should Dostal perform well enough in training camp and pre-season, he could see himself slotted into that position. Furthermore, the Ducks do not have a netminder signed for the following season either, although they will have to find a netminder of sufficient age and experience in order to comply with the Seattle expansion draft.
This opens up a potential pathway for Dostal to be slotted into the backup role as early as this season, and almost certainly next season at the latest. The Seattle signed netminder could be a long term AHL netminder, and could almost certainly be Stolarz should he still be around at that time.
Lukas Dostal, You Have Arrived
In Gibson’s case, his initial groin injury struck in his second season, and while that’s not a path that should necessarily be predicted for Dostal, it is one that should be considered for the currently 20-year-old player. A single part-season in the NHL doesn’t instantly make a player robust enough to jump into the big leagues and perform on a night in/out basis.
There are a lot of maybe’s with how the Anaheim Ducks could manipulate the current situation in the net. However, the past could show us some similarities in how they may attempt to handle it. The only real difference between then and now is that back then the Ducks were able to bring in cheaper backup netminders to attempt to fill in all the injury gaps.
This time around, the Anaheim Ducks are already over the cap ceiling, thus their ability to fill injury gaps is already hamstrung. I personally have a lot of faith in the Ducks’ ability to evaluate talent through the draft. They may not necessarily be as good at that as their hype may suggest. However, they seem to hit on a very high number of NHL players. Netminders in particular. Where the Ducks seem to fall down is in development.
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Gibson has turned into an excellent netminder. Andersen before him also panned out. However, the question can and should be asked whether Gibson’s entry into the NHL was the absolute best way to go about it and whether his injury woes were in part due to that entry pathway. Murray, in the past, has criticized Gibson for a lack of preparation when he first entered the league, and while there may be truth to that, it is also more a reflection on the organization than the player.
If the player isn’t ready, he shouldn’t have been brought in to play. It seems likely that this lack of preparation contributed to Gibson’s injury history. The Anaheim Ducks need to be self-aware enough to recognize that and to then ensure they don’t make those same mistakes again.
Dostal is running hot coming off of consecutive quality seasons in Finland. The Ducks are self-proclaiming that they’re a playoff team. It wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see a cash strapped team trying to make the playoffs push their youth into the team earlier than they should be and thus have negative impacts on that player’s development, and further delay the team’s bid for playoff relevance.
With all of that said, if I were to make a prediction, I would suggest that Ducks fans will see Dostal in the NHL at some stage during this coming season. I would even go so far as to suggest that next season he will become a more permanent fixture. Mostly just because I want to stir the pot a little, I suspect in two years’ time, John Gibson will be traded and Lukas Dostal’s time will arrive. At that stage, Gibson will be 30 years old and quite frankly, I’m not even mad that they’d trade him.
Lukas Dostal may have just arrived in North America, yet I believe his time is nigh. If the Ducks can keep him healthy, Dostal is set to be a fixture in the Anaheim net for the foreseeable future. It’s a shame that the first jersey I’ll own of his will be that hideous throwback they’ve brought back for this year. But, I plan to own that Dostal jersey so that in10 years’ time everyone will know I was one of the real ones. The believers. With perhaps just a little more money than sense.
Lukas Dostal, you have arrived.
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