Anaheim Ducks: Bob Murray Should Reconsider the Rebuild
Bob Murray believes the Anaheim Ducks are ready to compete again this year. However, maybe now is the time to focus on the future.
Bob Murray has had a very interesting off-season. After an extended wait for the team to officially enter the off-season, the Anaheim Ducks GM started by having a solid draft, headed by Jamie Drysdale and Jacob Perreault. Once the draft concluded, not much was expected of the Ducks heading into the free agency with less than $2 million in cap space. That suddenly changed however with the trade of defensemen Erik Gudbranson and his generous $4 million contract.
It was known the Ducks had holes, a defenseman to put into the top four, and a backup goaltender to replace Ryan Miller (unless Miller decides to resign) were obvious needs. Another scoring option could have been a welcomed addition, but due to limited cap space, the reality was that the moves were likely to be limited.
After two seasons of finishing toward the bottom of the league, the Anaheim Ducks do not seem like a group that is prepared to compete in the competitive Western Conference. However, Murray decided to double down during the free agency period and bring in Kevin Shattenkirk on a 3-year $11.7 million contract, as well as bring back fan-favorite, Derek Grant, on a 3-year $4.5 million contract on day one of the signing period.
By making these moves, Murray has made it aware that he believes the Ducks roster is now loaded and ready to make a push for the playoffs. That means Ducks fans should be excited because apparently the (very brief) “rebuild” is over. However, the competitiveness of this team will strongly hinge on many of the younger players breaking through and become major contributors to the offense.
As much as Murray wants this team to be competitive, there are a lot of ‘ifs’ in his plan. Hoping that the offense can drastically improve, along with a major rebound from the defensive core can be seen as asking a lot. Tie this in with a competitive division, along with sharing the conference with a strong Central Division, the Anaheim Ducks could very well be on the outside looking in for the third straight season. Because of this, along with the Ducks’ future contractual commitments, Bob Murray could miss out on a major rebuilding opportunity.
What is in a Rebuild?
In a perfect world, a team that decides to ‘blow things up’ will be able to move out pieces of value in order to build their prospect and draft pool. From there, the team can build through the draft and develop prospects that will carry them for an extended period of time. Think of the current make up of the Toronto Maple Leafs. While the team itself has struggled to make deep runs in the playoffs along with currently being in ‘cap hell’, the team is a perfect example of tearing down a roster in order to build a new, young group.
After losing in the first round of the 2013 playoffs the Leafs struggled over the next three seasons, concluding with the first overall pick in the 2016 Draft. From 2014-2016, the Leafs picked William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews, the three players that many people connect to when discussing the team’s young core.
In addition, the Leafs also sold off pieces to continue their rebuild, including trading Phil Kessel to the Penguins for a package including Kasperi Kapanen and a first-round pick used to acquire Frederik Andersen. Even though the team hasn’t had consistent success in the playoffs, the patience showed over those down years helped create their current core.
Teams that had success from a rebuild include the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins, and they won multiple cups over that past decade. These teams also proved that it takes a fair amount of luck to be good. The Penguins famously selected Sidney Crosby first overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. However, the fact that they got to make that pick fell on the fact that they won a draft lottery that every team had an equal chance to win.
The Blackhawks are mostly known for being led by franchise icons such as Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane who were high draft picks in their own right (3rd and 1st respectively), but much of their core throughout their winning years was constructed of later draft picks. Duncan Keith (2nd round), Dustin Byfuglien (9th), Corey Crawford (2nd), and Niklas Hjalmarsson (4th) all constructed the Hawks core during some of the franchises most dominant years.
The rebuild doesn’t always work out the way some teams want. My colleague, Garrett Brown, mentioned this in a previous article so I will not dive in too deep, but essentially teams such as the Edmonton Oilers and Buffalo Sabers have continued to struggle even though both teams have bottomed out in the past with varying results based on drafting and bringing in generational talents. When a team decides to completely ‘blow it up’, at the end of the day results can vary.
Looking at the Team’s Makeup
Right now the Anaheim Ducks are a team in flux. Upfront their best player is still arguably Ryan Getzlaf, but he turned 35 this past May and his play has admittedly been on the decline. The secondary options that remain consistent are Jakob Silfverberg and Adam Henrique, however, they are both now 30 and on most other teams would be best suited as defensive specialists who can contribute on offense in-depth roles. Rickard Rakell was once looked at as the future offensive leader after consecutive 30 goal seasons, but he has seen a decline in his play over the past few years.
The last group upfront is a common topic of discussion, being the Ducks group of youth. Players such as Troy Terry, Sam Steel, Max Jones, and Max Comtois, along with trade deadline additions Sonny Milano and Danton Heinen, are looked at as potential contributors in the future. Of course, there is a chance that any of these players could break out and have a great year offensively for the team, which would definitely help the team compete, but so far much of the results have varied.
On defense, the aforementioned Shattenkirk joins a group of Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson to solidify a solid, yet sometimes inconsistent, top 4. Barring any other moves, the final two spots will be given to players such as Christian Djoos, Jacob Larsson, Brendan Guhle, Josh Mahura, Kodie Curran, and Jani Hakanpaa. Of course, the Anaheim Ducks are flanked by one of the leagues best goaltenders in John Gibson, and at the time of writing this, Anthony Stolarz will likely be the backup.
Looking at this team on paper, Bob Murray’s vision of a competitive team will be banking on a lot of players being the best version of themselves. Rakell scoring 30 goals again, Manson and Lindholm becoming a dominant shut down pairing, Shattenkirk solving the powerplay woes, and both Steel and Terry both cracking 30, 40, or 50 points.
These all would likely help propel the Anaheim Ducks to at least a playoff team, but there are a huge amount of ‘ifs’ in this plan. However, if we start to look into the Ducks immediate future, it would say the team is in a perfect spot to continue the rebuild.
Going Into This Year
Bob Murray has done a good job of rebuilding the Ducks’ prospect pool in the past couple of drafts. Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, and Jacob Perreault should all be contributors in the near future, with the hope that they will become stars over the next few years. Players such as Benoit Oliver-Groulx, Brayden Tracey, and Sam Colangelo are apart of the next tier of prospects that also have the opportunity to become important members of the team in the coming years.
Should Bob Murray decide to build through the draft, he does have a good opportunity over the next few years. When looking at the Anaheim Ducks contract situation, there is one glaring upcoming UFA that could cause mixed opinions among Ducks fans, and that is Captain Ryan Getzlaf.
Getzlaf has been a career Duck, he is the only player to hit the 1000 game mark in team history, he currently sits 23 points behind Teemu Selanne for the most in franchise history, and he is an important member of the Orange County community, not to mention has a No-Movement Claus. But let’s look at it for what it’s worth. Getzlaf has always been a proud player, he does have a Stanley Cup but it was back in his second season, and he is still a productive player at 35 while playing for an underachieving team.
There are many teams out there that, by the time the trade deadline comes along, could look at a veteran Centerman as the missing piece to a potential cup winner. Teams such as Vegas and Colorado could see the opportunity and be willing to part ways with futures for Getzlaf’s services. Due to the flat cap caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, teams will be trying to make these moves while staying under the salary threshold, and while the Anaheim Ducks are tight to the cap themselves, the team could still retain much of Getzlaf’s salary in order to sweeten the deal.
Other than Getzlaf, the only expiring UFA deals the Ducks will have at the end of this season is David Backes and Carter Rowney. While I do not believe many teams, especially with the flat cap, would be willing to bring in Backes based on his remaining contract, Rowney could be a player that a team would be willing to flip a later round pick for to bolster their playoff depth with a veteran piece, much like the Flyers with Derek Grant last year.
The 2021 NHL Draft features many intriguing prospects. Forwards include Aatu Raty, Dylan Guenther, and Zachary Bolduc, among others. However, the depth of defense really stands out with players such as Owen Power, Brandt Clarke, Carson Lambos, and Simon Edvinsson are all players that the Anaheim Ducks could bolster their core by selecting next year. If the team were to acquire another first-round pick, along with bottom teams such as Buffalo, New Jersey, and Los Angeles getting better, the Ducks would get the opportunity to have another solid draft focused on the rebuild.
Trades Galore
The 2021 NHL Draft will consist of many top-end defenders, but in 2022 the focus should shift back to scoring depth. 2022 prospects include two highly touted players in Shane Wright and Brad Lambert, who are both seen as generational talents (think 2015 draft), to go along with Jack Hughes, Noah Greuter, and Matthew Savoie. There is also a good share of defensive prospects too, including players such as Seasmus Casey and Elias Salomonsson, so if the Ducks were able to get multiple first-round picks in this draft it could go along way in developing a strong core for the future.
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Should the team still be in a rebuild, Bob Murray would have a great opportunity to continue to acquire draft capital, with Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Nic Deslauriers, and Kodie Curran all currently lined up to be UFAs at the conclusion of the 2021-22 season. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and then, maybe some of these players are already gone, but there would be a great opportunity to build draft stock by moving these players.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are a perfect example of a team that is willing to spend to finalize a championship team, as they shipped two first-round picks for Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. Both Goodrow and Coleman are good players in their own rights, but if a team is willing to pay first-rounders for bottom six players, guys like Rakell and Lindholm would likely bring in a similar to better haul.
At this point, the Ducks would have to commit to the rebuild, and with the contracts expiring in two short years, it could be tough to convince players to resign on a struggling team. While the trades may not be popular at the time, they could still be the best course of action.
Concluding
Right now, Bob Murray is committed to icing a competitive team, even after two down years, a rebuild is not of interest for the Ducks GM. However, there are a lot of things that need to go right for the team to make it back to the playoffs. Without any cap space, Murray is going to be banking on the younger Ducklings to take the step that most fans are clamoring for under coach Dallas Eakins.
However, should the plan not take place as soon as this year, there could be a major opportunity missed. With many of the important veterans on the roster coming up on contract years, many may decide to move on from the team should they still not be competitive. Doing this could eventually cause the Ducks to lose many of these players for nothing should critical decisions be made.
Looking at the next couple of drafts, Bob Murray is likely better off looking towards the future and continue to construct the team’s young core, giving the team an opportunity to go back to the consistency the team saw throughout the 2010s.
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