Anaheim Ducks: Creating a Lineup of Only Ex-Players
What would happen if the Anaheim Ducks’ roster was completely made up of ex-players?
As is necessary, every now and again, we need to escape the crazy, unpredictability of the NHL offseason, especially in today’s climate. After over seven months without hockey, we know that Anaheim Ducks fans are getting a little restless. With that being said, today we’re going to take a more light-hearted approach to the “what if” scenario.
Over the years, Bob Murray has had a habit of trading away or letting our favorite players walk in free agency. As they have gone on to play with other teams, a lot of “what if’s” have crept into our minds.
So today we ask the question: What would a roster of only former Anaheim Ducks players look like and how successful would this roster be? In order to properly answer this question, we must first lay down some ground rules.
The rules are pretty straight forward and simple. To be considered for the roster, a player must currently be active in the NHL. They must also have played at least one game for the Anaheim Ducks in their career.
Now, in the interest of predicting individual player success, I am going to use a model created by Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic. He has created one of the most-referenced models for projecting game-value for every single player in the league by combining box score and advanced metrics.
What comes of this is a number that shows how “effective” that player was. This is called their GSVA (game score value-added). For reference, the best GSVA for the 2019-20 season was Auston Matthews with a 4.93, and the lowest was Jack Johnson with a -0.92.
Forwards
Bobby Ryan (.54) – Mathieu Perreault (.29) – Corey Perry (.59)
Bobby Ryan gets the nod at left-wing due to his history of playing with and improving the game of Corey Perry. While both of these player’s skills are somewhat outdated in today’s game, the prospect of Ryan and Perry together made it difficult not to pencil them in on the first line. Perreault has been a steady secondary contributor on a potent offensive team in the Winnipeg Jets since his departure. He will serve as Ryan and Perry’s makeshift Ryan Getzlaf.
David Perron (1.84) – Nick Bonino (1.07) – Kyle Palmieri (1.83)
Disclaimer: I get it. Based on their GSVA’s, this should be the first line. But still, Perry/Ryan slander will not be tolerated in this article, all things considered.
This is an effective second line. It compares quite favorably to the average second line in the league based on GSVA. Palmieri is a consistent threat to pot 30 goals any given year. Bonino has been a steady presence on very successful teams and has won a Cup. Perron has been producing near a point-per-game since his departure from the Anaheim Ducks, and he has been in the Stanley Cup Final twice, winning once.
Pat Maroon (.61) – Devin Shore (-0.15) – Ondrej Kase (1.27)
Oh, how I miss Ondrej Kase. The first negative GSVA creeps into the ex-Ducks lineup here. However, Shore is only a couple of seasons removed from scoring 30 points in consecutive seasons, and he is still young, suggesting the potential for a return to form.
Patrick Maroon is not hard to justify being on the team. With a slightly inflated GSVA (due to Tampa Bay’s dominance), Maroon’s value truly comes from his locker room presence. Plus, he seems to not be able to lose. Last, but not least, the beloved Ondrej Kase. Jacob Perreault and Danton Heinen seem to be a decent consolation prize, but who can replace that motor of his?
Carl Hagelin (.60) – Andrew Cogliano (.20) – Nick Ritchie (.57)
The GSVA’s have surprised me for these players. Before I started on this journey, I expected the fourth, and probably even the third lines to be filled with no-names. Hagelin has won two Cups since his departure, playing an integral part in the famous “HBK” line in 2016. Cogliano is aptly playing a shutdown role for his new Stars squad. The Nick Ritchie saga finally came to an end at last year’s trade deadline. He projects to be a productive depth player for a deep Bruins team.
Defense
Shea Theodore (2.56) – Sami Vatanen (.63)
Easily the most effective, exciting (yet depressing) player on this squad is Shea Theodore. Mistakenly let go as part of a deal relating to Vegas’ expansion draft, Theodore has gone on to become a bona fide star. He broke out in a major way in 2020’s playoffs, finishing as the leading scorer for a strong Golden Knights team. Sami Vatanen is what he is; a powerplay specialist.
Marcus Pettersson (.79) – Brandon Montour (.09)
Montour has turned in some down years in terms of production, but nothing that can’t be attributed to playing on the Buffalo Sabres. Anaheim Ducks fans know his skillset, and given a better group of skaters playing with him, he could still provide value. On the other hand, Pettersson has turned out to be a strong addition for a Pittsburgh team depleted of the depth it once boasted.
Luke Schenn (-0.69) – Erik Gudbranson (-0.78)
This is where things get dicey. Gudbranson and Schenn could get away with their utter lack of NHL-level scoring aptitude if they portrayed effective defending. However, Gudbranson was practically just given away for this very lack of upside.
Schenn was dragged along during Tampa Bay’s season in which he was only ever utilized as a 7th defenseman. Both of them played sparing minutes. But still, a general lack of options forces the ex-Ducks squad to turn their way. To put it lightly, the top four would be playing some heavy minutes.
Goalies
Frederik Andersen (2.2)
Due to Khudobin’s excellent postseason, the decision for starter and backup was tough. In the end, I’m leaning more towards a 1A and 1B situation. Andersen gets the nod as his stats have been fairly consistent. He doesn’t necessarily steal games for the Maple Leafs nowadays, but he allows them the opportunity to win night in and night out. He gets a lot of flak playing in Toronto, due to the restlessness of the fan base, but I think their issues stem more from their defensive play in front of Andersen.
Anton Khudobin (1.3)
This guy’s so cool. I can say for certain that the Anaheim Ducks took him for granted. His ability to actually put the Stars on his back at certain points was made very apparent all throughout the playoffs. The reason why I have him as 1B is because of his lack of a track record. If he can maintain the level of play he showed during the playoffs, then this would be a different story. He has largely been considered a backup in his career though. Even so, his stats have been on par, or better than Andersen’s in the smaller sample size.
How Do They Stack Up?
As speculative as this obviously is, it is difficult to say how a team made up of ex-Anaheim Ducks would stack up in today’s league. Lacking any star power whatsoever outside of Shea Theodore, and maybe David Perron, this squad doesn’t appear equipped to contend.
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Adding together the GSVA total gives a quantitative look at how they would fare. Luszczyszyn’s model gives ranges for what can be considered a true Stanley Cup contender, as well as team totals for the whole league. He considers a contending team one of the top six teams in the league according to the accumulative GSVA totals accrued by each team’s players. So taking the average of each position group numbers, his model is able to tell where a hypothetical roster of players might fit in.
By way of the almighty model, a true contending team’s forward group should add up to at least 18.3. Added all together, our ex-Ducks forwards reach 9.26. Definitely not contending status, but there are actually six real teams that come in below that number.
Considering defense, Luszczyszyn’s model expects contending teams to be able to add 6.7 points of GSVA. The ex-Ducks are well below again at 2.6. But still, there are five teams below that. So as of now, this ex-Ducks squad seems like they could give the real Anaheim Ducks a run for their money.
Goaltending is where this roster fares well relative to the actual league. They fit in nicely with the top third of the league due to the effective 1A and 1B tandem of Andersen and Khudobin.
Now, the sad part: comparing the current makeup of the actual Anaheim Ducks with the hypothetical roster made up of players that have departed for one reason or another. The ex-Ducks come out on top by a slim margin of .4 GSVA with their respective forward group.
On defense, the ex-Ducks take the crown again, this time leading by 2.1 points – a relatively large differential. Goaltending is going to be won by the real Anaheim Ducks by a landslide (John Gibson could’ve won it by himself).
Again, this is speculative, and not meant to make any points about the acumen of our management or anything like that. However, after doing this research, it is quite alarming to see the amount of fan-favorite players that have left in recent years, as well as what they continue to bring to their new teams. This leaves us with lingering questions of what could’ve been.
Next. Bob Murray Wants the Ducks to be a Playoff Contender. dark
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