The Anaheim Ducks Interesting Decision Making Has Cost Them Cap Space

The Anaheim Ducks might just be in a little bit of fiscal hot water this coming season.

The warning signs to fans were there when the Anaheim Ducks took on David Backes‘ contract last season, yet the LTIR cap relief granted by Ryan Kesler and Patrick Eaves may have papered over just how much money the Ducks were due to spend this coming season.

Recently, PuckPedia.com flipped over to the next season, which was quickly followed by capfriendly.com doing the same. While the accuracy of these sites is always somewhat debatable, they give a very good indication of the lay of the land.

At present both Puckpedia and CapFriendly present the Ducks as the team with the least cap space of all NHL teams, sitting between $470k and $545k. All this without a backup netminder signed for the 2020-21 season.

In many ways, the Anaheim Ducks are in a somewhat odd position. They’re incredibly expensive overall, due to the trade made to acquire David Backes from Boston and the buyout of Corey Perry, which itself holds a ~$6,625,000 cap hit for this coming season. The two moves combined have added ~$11.1 million dollars to the payroll.

The Perry buyout has long since been discussed. For many of the years in which Perry was criticized, he was still a somewhat productive player. That changed in his last season with the Ducks and hasn’t really changed in Dallas. What is debatable is whether the Ducks have adequately leveraged the cap space his buyout created. The players originally earmarked to take his top-6 wing slot didn’t really fire and were, in the end, dropped to the AHL team after GM Bob Murray went out and acquired Sonny Milano at the trade deadline.

What that space did allow them to do was absorb another team’s salary cap dump in exchange for assets. An acquisition that eventuated as Backes, a middling prospect, and what was projected at the time to be the final draft selection in the 1st round of the entry draft.

All but a few years ago, the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes both absorbed significant salary in exchange for draft capital and prospects. In this manner, the acquisition of Backes followed the profile of two of the current playoff teams. Where these teams differed, however, is that neither team gave up a 24-year-old player in order to absorb those bigger contracts and that both teams acquired higher draft selections or higher-profile prospects. Perhaps more significantly, both teams gave themselves enough space to maneuver following those deals.

While the trade of the 24-year-old Ondrej Kase is understandable given his injury history, it is somewhat contentious to give up a young 20-goal scorer in order to absorb $6 million dollars in salary and acquire a very late 1st round draft selection. It suggests that the Ducks either really value the prospect they received, Axel Andersson, or that they don’t understand the value of money or their place in the league at present.

Either way, the Anaheim Ducks current cap situation is entirely their own making. With over 10 years in charge of the team, GM Bob Murray can only point to himself when discussing the architect of the current roster.

How Does all of that Fit into Plans of Contending for a Cup?

Last season, saw Adam Henrique lead the scoring with 26-goals and 43-points. Rickard Rakell and Ryan Getzlaf joined him as 40-point producers. Of those, Henrique exceeded his production from the previous season. Rakell hit nearly the same marks. Getzlaf saw a small decline of 6-points.

Rounding out the top 5 scorers, Jakob Silfverberg came close to his career scoring marks and defenceman Cam Fowler had one of his more productive seasons. The 6th best scorer is no longer on the team, having been traded for David Backes. Thus, the question of “how much upside is left in this group at the top end” should be asked.

It’s been mentioned previously, yet perhaps it’s worth mentioning again. The Anaheim Ducks, despite their vaunted “youth movement”, iced the 10th oldest team in the league this year. With respect to their scoring woes and how much upside is left in the group, they iced the 3rd oldest forward group in the NHL. As a direct comparison to their peers, the Ducks forward group was older than all of those from teams in this season’s playoff race. If the Ducks ranked 28th overall for the age of the forwards the iced, the average of the playoff group this year was ~14th (range: 1st-27th).

It may possibly be worth mentioning, that of the regular skaters, the Ducks iced only fewer players under 24 years of age than the league average. They, of course, did trial other players, but they didn’t stick. What is notable is that the teams in this year’s playoff bracket iced a greater number of players in this age range than their counterparts. In essence, this shows the necessity of teams being able to find contributors at a young age.

With the Ducks’ current age demographic being somewhat elevated compared to their peers, it could be suggested that they may need to acquire some younger contributors to make that jump back into the upper echelons of the league. However, the lack of cap space the Ducks have to their name may now create difficulties in finding trade partners who can provide what the Ducks are in need of. In a flat cap world, it’s more likely that teams will be looking to trade contracts of similar financial value.

Making Trades Under the Flat Cap

Exactly what kind of move the Anaheim Ducks may consider is dependant on how the Ducks management sees the team at present. If they consider this team to be a genuine chance at a playoff berth (which appears to be the highest aim of management), then perhaps only a small change may be needed to keep this current roster intact. Of the Ducks roster, the players who make less than ~$3.8 million per season are all primarily young players, with the exception of Carter Rowney, Nicholas Deslauriers, and the newly signed Kodie Curran.

Of the three players mentioned, Carter Rowny is the obvious choice to be moved. He’s the oldest, he’s the most expensive, and both of the other players have been signed to contracts more recently. Adding fuel to that fire, Rowney is also coming off of his two back-to-back most productive NHL seasons.

Furthermore, the Anaheim Ducks have a ready-made replacement in the defensively sound Troy Terry (who is already calculated into the cap). The Ducks would be unlikely to receive anything of significance back from a Rowney trade, however, they should be able to squeeze open some cap space.

Similar deals could be made with some of the Ducks youth movement. Troy Terry, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Danton Heinen, Sonny Milano, and Jacob Larsson, are each included in the current cap projections and could be moved to fill in gaps in other areas. While it would seem unlikely to the casual observer, that the Ducks have moved on from Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Marcus Pettersson, Daniel Sprong, Brandon Montour, Joseph Blandisi, and Nicholas Kerdiles over the past two seasons, shows they will at least consider moving their younger players.

Another option would be to “shake up” the roster and attempt to make a “hockey trade” to take from a position of relative strength to fill an area of perceived need. As an example, we recently saw the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers come together to trade a relatively productive forward for a potential 3rd pairing defenceman.

While most pundits would consider the trade to be a win for Florida, it provides context for what is happening within the league. The question the Ducks have to answer is whether they can trade their big-money contracts for players that will be productive for them. For instance, is there value in trading Adam Henrique? As one of the more highly paid Ducks, can he be moved for a player who would be more beneficial for Stanely Cup run? Intrinsically, it would seem unlikely that the Ducks could trade a 43-point scorer for a ~50-60 point scorer of the same financial value. It isn’t impossible, but it seems unlikely.

An alternative consideration is that Anaheim Ducks management may truly believe that it’s time to commence a rebuild in earnest. Should that be the case they will have a plethora of options at their disposal. Notable names who could be moved include Josh Manson, Cam Fowler, Rickard Rakell, and Jakob Silfverberg, amongst others. The question, however, is what the compensation would be for those players.

Ten of the 2019-2020 playoff teams sit within the top-15 for salary cap expenditure next season. Bubble teams like Toronto and Pittsburgh also sit in that range. That the playoff teams and leading contenders are so condensed in the top portion of cap expenditure will restrict the Ducks if they’re attempting to trade players like Manson to one of them. While not to say trade is impossible, it merely makes it more likely to be a “hockey trade” which would not likely suit the purposes of a rebuild.

Whether the Ducks may have run themselves into trouble is that they very likely need to make some moves to become cap complaint this coming season (assuming they do decide to sign a backup netminder). At present, if CapFriendly and PuckoPedia are correct in their respective analysis, the Ducks are unable to fit in even the cheapest of their current AHL or Junior hockey signed netminders. Thus, it’s likely a trade could be made with this in mind.

On that note as an aside, and it is possibly a little early to be too concerned about it, the Ducks will be required to sign a goalie contract for the 2021-2022 season. That player will then be required to become exposed for the Seattle Kraken to potentially select, in order to become compliant with the expansion draft (unless they want to expose John Gibson).

It isn’t necessary to panic about that right now, however, it may behoove the Ducks to consider a move now if they’re already going to be trading players to make space and to fill their roster. Nonetheless, they will need to become compliant with the expansion draft as well.

Regardless, the flat cap has thrown some of the best-laid plans into turmoil. While Stanely Cup finalists, the Dallas Stars, built their team via trade (over years), it seems unlikely that the Ducks will be able to start walking down that path this season. It may also be difficult to facilitate trades with the future in mind, given they’ll not easily be able to absorb the onerous contracts of some of the more expensive teams. Taken together, perhaps the way to a Stanely Cup is not going to be created via a trading route.

Creating Value Through the Draft

Drawing back to the age range of the Ducks forward group in comparison to the 2019-2020 playoff teams, it could be considered that the relative youth of these teams may reflect the drafting of stars (e.g. Mikko Rantanen or Brayden Point). However, solid drafting may also present opportunities for young role players who can fit in around established and highly paid stars.

While it’s relatively clear that the Ducks haven’t drafted much in the way of star power over the past decade, its a little more difficult to determine whether they’ve created good value from the draft either. For instance, players such as Troy Terry were heavily hyped as scoring players, yet did not score to expectations.

By last season’s end, Terry had improved his defensive game remarkably, yet was dropped to make room for Sonny Milano on the top line. Thus the question should be asked as to whether Terry has value as a role player and will the Ducks use him as such?

Terry’s former teammate, Nick Ritchie, presented strongly across with- and without-statistics, where many teammates presented with stronger underlying numbers when he was a linemate. Ritchie certainly wasn’t what the Ducks hoped for with the #10 overall draft selection, however, he was a reasonable hockey player. He was traded for a more expensive role player in Danton Heinen.

That isn’t a knock on Heinen by any stretch, merely an indication that he isn’t a significantly greater player who would be worth double Ritchie’s salary. Moving forward, do the Ducks see Heinen as a 10-year player? If they do, then there are no concerns with the trade. If, however, they could see themselves moving on from Heinen, then the question should be asked whether he would garner more value in return that the former #10 overall selection with a lower price tag. The outcome is debatable at the best of times, and doubly so in this era with a flat cap.

Nonetheless, given the Anaheim Ducks cap constraints are making it difficult to create trade opportunities of significance and will inhibit them from acquiring marque free agents, it behooves the Ducks to create value from the draft.

Their primary focus should be on the acquisition and development of star power. While fans still remember the Getzlaf of yesteryear and adore what Henrique brings to the table, it’s arguable how long they may be able to keep up their current levels of production. Even with their current levels, the Ducks are one of the weakest teams in the league in terms of scoring prowess. Thus, the Ducks should start focusing on developing their own Rantanen’s and Points.

The process to draft that kind of player was potentially started last season, where the Ducks picked up Trevor Zegras and analytics darling Brayden Tracey. This year they will have the chance again to draft highly and again at the end of the 1st round. Their second-round selection allowed may afford them two bites at the cherry if a particular player slips down the rankings. Last season that player was Arthur Kaliyev and years previously it was Alex DeBrincat.

Which highlights some need for the Anaheim Ducks to acquire as many early draft selections as they can over the next few years. To this effect, previous trades such as the acquisition of David Backes contract make some sense. However, the acquisition of Heinen as opposed to a draft selection, in exchange for a valuable asset (Ritchie) becomes questionable.

With no disrespect intended towards Heinen, moving Ritchie for a draft selection would have slashed the Ducks payroll this coming season and helped them acquire another chance at a potential star player towards the end of the first round or even moving into the second. As a potentially unlikely example, would Montreal (who currently have ~$10 million in cap space) have traded the #47, #48, and #56 for Nick Ritchie and a 4th round selection? Would Detroit (who have ~$34 million in cap space) have looked at Ritchie for the #32 and #45 draft selections? We won’t ever know, however, Ritchie had value as a former #10 overall draft selection. Does Heinen have that same value?

Thus, the Anaheim Ducks need to begin leveraging their assets to build draft capital. Increasing their talent via the draft will work to decrease their salary cap expenditure, as well as decreasing the average age of their forward group, to be more in line with the current playoff team profile. There is also the chance of finding a genuine star and raising the team’s profile and standing.

There may not be a strong possibility of starting that process immediately, however, should the Ducks choose to walk down that path, they have some options to explore. Would Colorado (~$22 million in cap space) consider Josh Manson? Would the Winnipeg Jets (~$15.5 million in cap space)? Could the Calgary Flames (~$17 million in cap space) use an additional ~40-point scorer to round out their lines? Each scenario could be considered, and draft selections anywhere in the next three drafts could be taken in return.

Trading someone like Manson would only weaken the Anaheim Ducks, which would have the knock-on effect of the Ducks own draft picks having a greater likelihood of being earlier than later. The cap space would also allow the Ducks to take on a bad contract in exchange for another relatively high draft selection. One trade would lead to another. Thus draft capital would be created.

Team Building with Limited Cap Space

The Anaheim Ducks are in a unique situation in which they are both older and more expensive than most teams in the league. They’re older than the 2019-2020 playoff teams and far more expensive than most of the rebuilding ones.

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This duality has created a situation in which creativity is required to build a Stanely Cup team. Compounding that situation is the flat cap situation created by the global Covid-19 pandemic.

At the best of times, team building requires the ability to create and take advantage of options. In many ways, creating cap space creates those options, in much the same way that financial independence creates a sense of freedom for the individual. By nature of the Ducks decision making up until now, that ability to create options has been mitigated and thus the team is largely how it will be for a large portion of the coming season.

With Ryan Kesler on LTIR this season, cap space will open up on a pro-rata basis and trade can be made. Additionally, David Backes will come off the books, and Corey Perry’s buyout recapture cost will decrease by ~$4.5 million dollars. In fact, at present, the Anaheim Ducks are looking like having ~$29 million dollars in cap space after the completion of next season, including Ryan Kesler’s contract which will likely still be on LTIR.

However, that is for next season. This current season looks to be a lost season before it begins. A weak team on paper with little excitement coming from the prospect pool into the main team. Trevor Zegras, Brayden Tracey, and perhaps even Benoit-Oliver Groulx, will make their debuts for the AHL team, but that won’t likely impact the Anaheim Ducks a great deal.

Perhaps as teams positions solidify and the Ducks are able to access the cap space from Kesler’s LTIR contract, we may see some movement. However, taken together this will very likely not be the Ducks year to win. Or to rebuild. And it all comes back to the money.

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