Can the Anaheim Ducks push a deal for Patrik across the Laine?
With rumors flying about the Winnipeg Jets Patrik Laine, should Bob Murray and the Anaheim Ducks dip their webbed feet into the waters?
There has been a lot of chatter about the Winnipeg Jets needing to deal one of its big names to acquire help to become a more well-rounded team, in order to compete for the Stanely Cup. like most fans of most teams, Anaheim Ducks fans have been seemingly catering about acquiring Patrik Laine.
Why wouldn’t they? He’s a young stud-muffin. Anyway, it only seems right that I should break down my own thoughts on the chances of that happening, and answer the question, “will Patrik Laine become a Duck?”
The shorts answer, for you speed readers in a hurry is this…
No.
The long answer to that question is…
Nnnnoooooooooooo
But, I guess if you’re reading one of my articles it is because you want to read thousands upon thousands of words that you probably don’t agree with. So the really, really long answer is as follows.
Why Would The Winnipeg Jets Do It?
It’s a little hard to fathom why the Winnipeg franchise would wait for 10-years to acquire players like Laine (and Nikolaj Ehlers), develop them into their prime scoring ages, and then move them to commence another rebuild. It’s even harder to fathom why they would assume Laine has peaked at 22-years-old and after his most arguably “complete” season as a hockey player.
Certainly, if you’re a big believer in aging curves and expect that 22-years-old is a peak of sorts, then it might maybe make sense to move a player prior to his next big payday. Let’s not beat about the bush, Laine’s next contract will likely be a monster one.
Nonetheless, moneypuck is suggesting that Laine’s ability to shoot the puck is nearly 30% above the average NHL player. That gives him a long way to fall even if he has peaked at 22.
There’s absolutely no doubt that Laine is an elite scorer of goals. The list of players who have recorded back-to-back 20-goal seasons in the NHL is a very short list. Names include Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr, Steven Stamkos, and, of course, Patrik Laine.
I don’t think it’s out of the question to suggest that Laine will, at least once in his career, post up a 50-goal season. It could be due to an increase in ice time, and an increase in shot rates, or merely a luck season in which a higher number of shots find the back of the net. Nonetheless, I strongly believe it will happen.
However, while Laine possesses frightening offensive weapons, he does have some flaws to his game. Some of which even raise their heads when discussing Laine’s primary role as a shooter. Notably, he’s a somewhat overrated stick-handler which can run him into trouble on occasion. In this past season, Laine ranked 2nd amongst Jet’s forwards for giveaways in what was a season he turned over a career-high number of pucks.
Given this somewhat wonky ability to hold the puck, it’s hard to present Laine as a “two-way” player. This becomes even more evident when consideration is given to Laine’s steadily increasing offensive zone (OZ) starts. Laine was brought into the league as a somewhat sheltered scoring forward (rightly so), given ~58.7% of his starts in the OZ. However four years into his career, he has seen a steady increase in OZ starts each season, culminating in ~65.1% of his starts commencing there this past season.
In line with the increase in OZ starts, Laine has also presented an increasing trend regarding expected goals against. Both scoring chances against, and high danger scoring chances against, have trended up over Laine’s career. The 2019-2020 season saw the Jets give up ~3.7 high danger Corsi attempts per game (even strength), while Laine was on the ice.
While the Jets game up the most attempts of this sort of any team in the league last season (~10.6 per game at even strength), it’s hard to argue that ~35% of them coming while a single player is on the ice, is a good look. This despite it being a front line player earning the 3rd most minutes per game amongst the forwards.
Teams looking for more defensive pressure from their forward group may do well to move in a different direction. Which may be where the Jets find themselves at present. The last 12-months have seen the Jets blue line gutted from what was a reasonably strong group of players. Jacob Trouba and Dustin Byfuglien headline the names of the players who have left the Jets defensive unit over that time period.
There is no doubt that these losses have had a direct impact on the Jets as a whole, and the sharp spike in defensive numbers presented by players such as Laine, however, it is also true that Laine has been trending down across these metrics for the past few years. Nonetheless, the Jets need to stabilize their defensive end if they expect to make noise in the postseason.
In order to strengthen the team defensively, the Jets can either look to play a greater “team” defense, in which the forwards contribute significantly to the overall structure, or they can look for help on the blue line. Most good teams will do both.
Thus with young guns, Kyle Connor and Ehlers, still under 25-years old and signed long term, it may be Laine who is moved for a strong 2nd line pivot with a strong defensive acumen, or for upgrades on the blue line. Given the age of the Jet’s best players, they could consider that they have some time with their cup window open, thus help can be both immediate and in the near future.
Should The Anaheim Ducks Walk The Laine?
It’s hard to imagine the Anaheim Ducks going all out and spending the assets the Jets may be asking for. It’s pretty tough to even consider what haul they might be imagining they can ask for. However, that part comes later. For now, it’s probably best to determine what Laine could bring to the Ducks if he were acquired.
Primarily, Laine would provide a prime-aged scorer to a list that is lacking in scorers and prime-aged players. While the Anaheim Ducks do have a small contingent of players sitting around the 20-24 years of age bracket, none of them at this stage are projecting to be top-6 players that the Ducks can rely on over the next decade. Sooner rather than later, players like Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique, and Jakob Silfverberg will all move on. Given those older statemen are a large portion of the Anaheim Ducks’ primary source of points, strides will need to be made to remedy that situation.
At 22-years-of-age and a career-low 28 goals (still ~33 goal pace) to his name, there’s no denying that Laine to help contribute to a Ducks resurgence in the years ahead. While Laine did post the highest primary and secondary assist rates of his career this past season, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be confused with a playmaker or even a well rounded offensive threat. Laine is a shooter.
On that note, it is worth noting that Laine shot the puck at a higher rate this past season than he had in his three prior seasons. Shooting the puck at a rate of ~2.2 per game would have given him an additional ~25 shots on net over an 82-game season. Even though Laine’s shooting percentage has seemingly stabilized near ~12% these past two seasons, this still provides an avenue for a few extra goals scored.
It is also notable that Laine creates rebound opportunities at 1.1 per 60 minutes of even-strength play. A rate that was good for 3rd on the Jets team and top-80 over the entire NHL (accounting for a minimum of 10 games played) in the 2019-2020 season. For a team that crashes the net hard, as the Ducks have traditionally been wanting to do, a shooter of Laine’s caliber, who can score in his own right, as well as create scoring opportunities for players in the paint, could provide dividends.
Given Laine is only 22-years-old, the Anaheim Ducks could conceivably see him alongside their best prospect and playmaker, Trevor Zegras, in years to come. As a pass-first player, it could be assumed that a shot-first player like Laine would settle nicely with him. They’d only need to find another strong wing to go alongside them, over the next few years.
However, this is where the issues start to arise, given the Anaheim Ducks have a dearth of talent to give away in terms of prospects and on-ice personnel. It’s also notable that the Anaheim Ducks decline in play over the past couple of years, and this last season, in particular, may handcuff their ability to command premium value on any of their players. Thus what do the Jets need?
In terms of defensive help, they may like someone who can contribute now, but who is also young enough to play with the team for a few years more. While players such as Cam Fowler and Josh Manson come to mind, Hampus Lindholm is probably the Jets target.
Given that he is signed for a further two seasons at a reasonable rate and has some upside to his game, it stands to reason that he would be the first and last port of call for the Jets should Anaheim pick up the phone. Naturally, his fall off this past year or so inhibits his value, and even at his peak, he would not likely have been enough to cover the cost of a 22-year-old 30-40 goal scorer.
Thus, the Jets look to fortifying their 2nd line for the future. If I were them I’d be asking for Zegras, and possibly something else depending on how each team values its players and prospects. Lindholm and Zegras for Laine is very likely a reasonable starting point in negotiations.
However, while this provides the Anaheim Ducks with an elite goal scorer, it removes the playmaker they may have deemed essential to getting that goal scorer going. It also further dilutes an already somewhat weak defensive unit, and add’s a forward line player who may require sheltering on the defensive end.
Drawing A Laine In The Sand
It’s hard to imagine the Ducks, under Bob Murray, would give away a defensive player for one that requires help defensively. Given Murray has given away players such as Bobby Ryan in his peak, and Kyle Palmieri prior to his, it seems unlikely that he would go to that same well to acquire players now.
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The Ducks over the past decade have been a team which as attempted to have it’s forwards playing defensively and its defense play offensively. Laine simply doesn’t fit the Modus Operandi that the Ducks employ.
With that said, even should the Ducks decide that they really need to go all-in on a scoring player, they are perhaps not in the right place at present to make such a big splashy move. Having traded away prospects and players over the years to maintain their bubble playoff status, the Ducks simply do not have the draft capital from which to deal. Losing a prospect such as Zegras would set their inevitable rebuild back a year or two more. Losing a player such as Lindholm would push their need for a rebuild forward, to needing to commence about three years ago.
Laine is a wonderful player who should easily find a place on any team in the league. In the case of the Ducks, however, the cost to acquire and keep him is simply too great for a team that doesn’t yet know it needs to start rebuilding. Now watch him go to a team on the up and up, such as Carolina, and watch him become a superstar.
All statistics found at naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise stated.
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