Anaheim Ducks: Trading Down from the 6th Overall Pick is a Viable Option
Would trading down from the 6th overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft be a viable option for the Anaheim Ducks?
It has been a while since the first phase of the NHL’s draft process was completed. While the 1st overall selection is still up in the air, the Anaheim Ducks appear set to have locked in the 6th overall selection, which was their most probable outcome based on the odds.
Like most of the teams that were competing for the lottery, the Ducks have weaknesses all over their roster and no clear strengths that would push them away from selecting any particular player based on position.
Over the past two-combined seasons, the Ducks have a 2.47 goals per game offense, which is good for 30th overall. In the same breath, they have given up 3.09 goals per game, ranking them 20th overall in that category.
Special teams are also a mess, with the 27th ranked power-play, and 25th ranked penalty kill. Thus, the need to draft talent at every position has created some debate about who or even what, the Anaheim Ducks are in need of the most.
At present, a number of mock drafts have the Ducks selecting Jamie Drysdale with the 6th overall selection. In a lot of ways, this selection would be a good fit for the Ducks’ previous history. Consider the following:
- Bob Murray is an old school type of team builder who likes to build from the back end out. We saw this method put in place when he drafted defencemen with his top picks year after year. Twelve of the Anaheim Ducks 30 selections, in the first 3 rounds between 2008 and 2015 were defencemen. Taking into account that a further 4 of these selections were netminders, that then left less than 50% of the Ducks draft selections to be used upon forwards, a position that has the most roster spots to fill.
- The Anaheim Ducks have moved away from drafting defencemen in the past few years and despite having traded for multiple defensive prospects, still have a clear weakness throughout the prospect pipeline at this position. Specifically, only 2 of 13 selections in the first 3 rounds have been defencemen since the Ducks selected Josh Mahura in 2016 (3rd round).
Taken together, this would suggest that the Ducks are ripe for selecting a defenceman. It could be assumed that the forwards they’ve selected in the past 4 drafts are still developing and should come on in due time.
Certainly, the Anaheim Ducks faithful will still hold a lot of hope that Max Jones, Sam Steel, and Max Comtois will develop into high-end point producers, as they acclimatize to the NHL. Last year’s 1st round picks (Trevor Zegras and Brayden Tracey) are perhaps a little early to be relied upon in the NHL but have huge expectations upon them already.
With that said, the forward talent the Ducks do hold, lean more heavily towards the playmaking side of the ledger than pure goal-scorer. Tracey and Comtois seem to be relatively well rounded, and the hope will be that they can score prolifically in the NHL, yet it can be said that neither is a high volume shooter or a prolific goal-scoring threat that will challenge for the goal-scoring title each year. The Ducks could sorely use a player who has that kind of upside.
Sitting at the 6th draft selection has the Ducks somewhat at the mercy of the teams selecting ahead of them. For the most part, it can be assumed that Alexis Lafreniere, Quinton Byfield, and Tim Stutzle, will be off the board in some order before the Ducks get to the (virtual?) podium to make their selection.
There are some rumors that the Red Wings like Cole Perfetti (they should know him well since he was based not far from their home all season), and given they selected Moritz Seider in last years draft, it seems there could be some legs to them taking a forward at the very least.
That then leaves Ottawa. If they take the playmaking Stutzle with their 3rd overall selection, do they then take a goal-scoring threat such as Alexander Holtz or Marco Rossi? Do they take a defensive player such as Jake Sanderson or Jamie Drysdale? In any of those events, the Ducks come out with a tough choice to make and very good odds to select an excellent player.
However, can the Anaheim Ducks do more than simply make that selection when their time is called? I would suggest that they can leverage their early selection and use it to add even more talent to their prospect pool. Specifically, I think they should explore trading down in the draft. Two teams the Ducks could explore making relatively easy trades with are the New Jersey Devils and the Minnesota Wild.
New Jersey Devils
Without looking too far into things, the Devil’s look like a team that could suit a Ducks trade strategy, by simply swapping each of their 1st round picks. The Ducks currently hold the #6th and #31st selections, while the Devils hold the #10th and #17th selections.
Perhaps jumping from the end of the first round to the middle of the table would seem like a bigger jump than from #10th to #6th and if that is the prevailing theory, then the Anaheim Ducks could easily sweeten the pot by adding their 3rd round selection. Why would either team do this?
From the Devil’s perspective, they get the chance to move up and select a guy they may really want. Perhaps they desperately want to draft a specific player for positional need, or perhaps they simply really like one of the players still available. Marco Rossi is one that springs to mind, as he played with four of the Devils prospects this past season at the 67’s.
With players such as Mysak and Neighbours, still likely to be on the board late in the first round, the Devils could conceivably still draft well in the first round overall. They would also get to add the 3rd round pick and hopefully select a player that would further fill out their roster in the future.
Most of the reasons the Devils could go for this trade would similarly go for the Ducks as well. So why do they think about trading down from the #6 selection and give up a lower round draft pick to do it?
Firstly, there is a good chance that one of Sanderson, Drysdale, Rossi, or Holtz will still be available with the 10th selection, thus for a team that is currently drafting simply for talent rather than position, either of these players would be more than acceptable.
If, however, those players have each been selected, the Ducks could still choose one of Jack Quinn, who scored 50 goals in the OHL this season, or Anton Lundell, whose steady play fits Bob Murrays player type. The Ducks would then also get the chance to draft a player with a greater chance of becoming a star at #17 than they would at #31st.
Hendrix Lapierre could be a steal if he can put his injury woes behind him. Noel Gunler has a big-time shot and ridiculous creativity that could pay dividends if he can add some grit to his game.
Dylan Holloway, Dawson Mercer, and even Kaiden Guhle are each players the Ducks would love to have but couldn’t get at #31st. Guhle, in particular, could be a sneaky chance at a top 10 selection in the same way that Broberg and Seider crept into the top 10 last year. If he’s available at #17, the Ducks couldn’t possibly say no.
In essence, the Anaheim Ducks are taking a slight risk that one of the players they might like won’t still be there at #10, but the pay off is the upside in potential they would get at #17 as opposed to #31st. Certain combinations of players would require different levels of development of course, but I think that the addition of potentially elite talent while not taking on any additional risk to their current set up is a move worth considering.
The Minnesota Wild
With the Wild, the Ducks would be taking a similar stance to the above New Jersey Devils idea, in that they would be swapping each of their first-round selections. However, each of the Wilds selections are after the Devils selections and the likelihood of the talent the Ducks would be looking to acquire still being on the board is less likely. Thus in this instance, instead of the Ducks giving up an additional selection as they would with the Devils, it is the Wild who need to add a sweetener to get the deal over the line.
I would suggest that the Ducks push to swap their 2020 2nd round pick, with the Wilds 2022 1st round pick. From the Wilds perspective, they are able to move into the top portion of the draft, while still being able to add talent in the back end of the first and early 2nd round. They don’t know what their 2022 draft looks like, but it is pretty far removed from today, and they can hope to add a selection in that draft further down the track.
The Ducks, on the other hand, will still be able to make a good selection at #11 and acquire a solid role player at #24 in this draft. The key to their trade, however, is the 2022 1st rounder, which is shaping up to be a strong draft even looking this far out.
At the very worst the Ducks would be moving up 6 draft selections from the early 2nd round to the very last selection in the 1st round, but I think we can all agree that the Wild won’t be winning the cup any time in the next 2 years with their aging group.
Conversely, there is a good chance the selection is quite high. Given the Ducks are only beginning their rebuild, adding future draft selections could be a strong move that could pay dividends down the line. A lot will hinge on who teams will draft leading up to the #11 selection this season and while a larger gamble than the Devils trade idea, the Ducks should still secure a strong player.
Chicago Blackhawks
Unlike the previous two teams, the Chicago Blackhawks don’t have an abundance of draft picks the Anaheim Ducks could attempt to pry away. Instead, trading down to the Chicago position would be an attempt to secure a reclamation project of sorts: Alexander Nylander.
The former #8 overall pick shows flashes of silky skills, teasing at a potential that should land him amongst the leagues elite. While only shown in flashes thus far, at his best, Nylander is a smooth skater with soft mitts and a playmakers acumen. Delving back into his pre-NHL video, shows us that he may have the shot to become a goal-scoring threat alongside his ability as a facilitator.
Yet, the player himself often appears unengaged, letting defensive assignments lapse. His ability to think the game has also been questioned. It’s these negative aspects of his game, that have seen him traded once (from the Sabres) and placed into the coach’s dog house at his new location (Chicago.) It’s these flaws that open up an opportunity for the Anaheim Ducks to take a chance on him.
Almost certainly, the Ducks would have to add something to the mix to get this trade over the line. But, given their excess of wings that will be exposed to the expansion draft (and Nylander will be another), they can afford to part with such a player.
Thus the Ducks could move down 3 spots from #6 to #9 and acquire a recent top-10 selected player with an offensive touch. As with the above selections, there is a high chance that a good young prospect the Ducks like will still be available in the 9th slot. With the Sanderson hype running rampant in recent days, it becomes even more likely that a top-end forward prospect will slip into the 9th spot.
The Blackhawks on the other hand, are simply moving up to find a player that they might love. Rossi is a prolifically scoring undersized forward, yet given the success Alex DeBrincat has had, Chicago would not hesitate to consider him if available. Do they like him enough to move up to grab him? It may depend on what else the Ducks can do to sweeten the pot.
Is Kiefer Sherwood interesting enough to them? Have the Anaheim Ducks given up on Troy Terry? The Ducks have options here, and it merely remains to be seen what their team-building plan will be moving forward.
A Trade-Up Scenario
While the premise of the article is that the Anaheim Ducks could trade down to accrue more assets, it would be remise to imagine they couldn’t also attempt to move up. While it may seem counterintuitive at first, the Los Angeles Kings may actually make for a very good trade partner.
The Kings rebuild is in full swing and may possibly be closer to completion that most Ducks fans would care to imagine. They have a stable of young forwards coming up, including Alex Turcotte, Tyler Madden, Sam Fagemo, Arthur Kaliyev, Gabe Vilardi, Carl Grundstrom, Akil Thomas, and Rasmus Kupari.
Enough forward talent at least, for them to be ranked the #1 prospect system in the league. This would likely only grow with the selection of Quinton Byfield or Tim Stutzle with the #2 overall selection in this coming draft.
Yet, after the forward talent, there isn’t a great deal coming up. Tobias Bjornfot, looks to be a very steady defenceman, and the closest thing the Kings have to a blue-chip prospect on the blue line. However, he looks to be a steadying presence and not an out and out star. Sean Durzi and Cale Klague are on the prospect list, but neither is projected as dominant blueliners.
In net, the Kings have found Cal Petersen this past season, yet at 25 years of age, are they certain he’s the answer going forward? Certainly, they will take the chance and hope he continues to play well, but I’m sure they would like at least one further option in that position.
Which is where the Ducks can come in. At the #6 selection, it would appear almost certain that Drysdale or Sanderson will be available. Either would add a player in a position that the Kings are relatively weak in going forward, and neither is a player the Kings could really select with the #2 pick. Yet, it is a pick they probably need to make. Of course, no one trades down on a whim, and in this instance, the Kings should be able to demand compensation.
Lukas Dostal, the Ducks prized netminding prospect is part of that package. Following an outstanding season in Finland, his stock is on the rise, and being 5 years younger than Peterson he has room for growth. His contract will also likely fit in nicely with the King’s core group when they hit their second contracts.
The Anaheim Ducks would also likely have to give up the Boston pick. While Dostal is a prize, he isn’t one of the top 10 goaltending prospects, and thus would be unlikely to command such a move to the #2 selection. Thus the Kings would be able to secure a blue-chip defensive prospect, an extremely good goaltending prospect, and given the Kings talent in selecting in the second round of late (Thomas and Kaliyev), the Boston pick is sure to net them talent there as well. They simply become a more rounded team.
The Ducks, of course, get the chance to select a unicorn. Byfield is a player with the potential that the Ducks haven’t had since Bobby Ryan was drafted. A clear cut top 6 option, and a good chance to be a Malkin-esque top liner is an opportunity the Ducks shouldn’t fail to capitalize on.
Certainly, losing Dostal could hurt, however, John Gibson is set to man the crease for the foreseeable future. The Ducks also have Olle Eriksson-Ek and Roman Durny in the pipeline, though it should be said that neither has the results that Dostal has. Nonetheless, a 1-2 punch of Byfield and Trevor Zegras should be enough for most fans to quickly forget about anything they may have to give up to make the trade happen.
Extra Ideas
As an aside to the draft, I can’t help but wonder if the Ducks should look into acquiring Lias Andersson from the New York Rangers. The former #7 overall selection in 2017 has yet to impress the Rangers in any facet of the game. He doesn’t have an elite shot, nor is he a strong playmaker. Yet the Rangers find themselves at an impasse, with him returning to Sweden and at this stage unlikely to return the Rangers.
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Given his thus far underwhelming results, it seems likely that his next NHL contract would be a relatively inexpensive one. The only real issue, is what would the Rangers take in return for his acquisition, and could the Ducks protect him in the 2021 expansion draft?
Nonetheless, it seems like a prudent option to explore, should the Anaheim Ducks think he has the skillset to become the well-rounded player he was projected to be.
Assuming the Ducks could make this trade work, without giving up too much, the weight of expectation should fall from the shoulders of the player and hopefully free him up to enjoy the game and push towards his draft day potential.
The Wrap Up
All in all, the Anaheim Ducks are presented with an opportunity to remake their roster. They could sit tight and make the easy choices to walk up and use their selection as is, or they can attempt to leverage their position into greater assets.
If the Kings trade is available, then the Ducks should absolutely move up and take Byfield without blinking. However, if it’s not (and it won’t be), then I truly believe that the Ducks might be better trading down to accrue further assets.
It’s very likely that they will still be able to select a player that they love if they only shift a few spots and in doing so would allow them to maximize this early stage of talent acquisition. For a team that has barely, if at all, commenced their rebuild, this coming draft offers an opportunity to fast track that ideal.
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