Anaheim Ducks: Agents of Change and the Future
Much like watching the Anaheim Ducks this season, reading this article is going to hurt. It is just about that time to finally start tearing down what has ailed the team in order to see what best fixes it. Strap in for a quick look at the future and what comes next.
The 2019-2020 season commenced with much fanfare and the hope of better days for the Anaheim Ducks. After all, Randy Carlyle’s second go-around was coming to a close and despite the ever-present and extensive injury list, he never really had much of a chance to stick around long-term. As it can be said, the coaches count-down clock begins the moment he’s hired. On top of that, the new wave of the Ducks prospects was also due to hit the team. Out went some of the injured old men, such as Ryan Kesler and Patrick Eaves, and into the team would come, Max Comtois, Daniel Sprong, Troy Terry, and their ilk.
Yet here we stand at the tail end of the season, with only 15 games left to go, and last years totals seem like lofty figures the gods could barely reach. With 67 games played, the Ducks sit 18 points below last years abysmal 80 point total. They’ll need to win 9 of their last 15, yet currently sit on 4-5-1 pace in their last 10. This season’s Ducks team has 9 fewer regulation wins and 10 fewer regulation-plus-overtime wins. There isn’t a great deal of race track left for the Ducks to speed through, however, if they do go on a tear it can be done.
The offense was to be revamped, yet they sit 27 goals below last years total of 196. 27 Goals in 15 games, seems reasonable given that they’ve improved their scoring output by an extra goal every 9 games from last seasons pace. Their 2.6 goals per game pace since the trade deadline will get them over the line at this stage, and that’s certainly commendable given the team’s power play has declined by 2.7% overall. They’ve scored merely 2 in the 13 attempts they’ve had since the trade deadline (12.5%) despite the noise the commentary team has made about moving Ryan Getzlaf below the goal line.
Conversely, the defensive side of the equation has seen the Ducks fall off a cliff. John Gibson and Ryan Miller are both on track for their worst career seasons, and while there have been uncharacteristic moments from both, the team’s results can’t be completely laid at their feet. There is a case to be made that these two are among the Ducks best players this season. Certainly, there have been moments when the Ducks have been impaired by injuries. During the recent Chicago game, the Ducks had none of their top 4 defensemen on the ice. One still wonders if Erik Gudbranson should be counted in that list at the best of times, however. Yet that is not so different to the last two seasons. Nonetheless, goals allowed have gone up, though whether the penalty kill has gone down because of it, or vice versa, is anyone’s guess. Specifically, the Ducks seasonal average for goals against has trended downwards all season and if the 3.4 goals-against average since the trade deadline is anything to go by, they’ll exceed last years goals-against totals with games in hand.
Perhaps more pressing to Ducks fans, however, is that the prized youth they put so much stock into in the preseason have seemingly all been left to rot on the vine. In Max Comtois’ instance, him developing for a further season in the AHL seemed fait accompli before the season began. Comtois missing hurts on an emotional level, but not so much when rational thought is given to his circumstances. Some of the others, however, have struggled mightily.
Daniel Sprong, was given very little playing time with much of it coming on the 4th line when he was given opportunities. He was eventually moved out-of-town during the recent trade deadline, and it pains me to say that his career may be closer to finishing than starting. He is but 22 years of age and it is a shame that he was unloved by the current coaching staff. It’s worth mentioning that when accounting for minutes, he was the 6th highest shooter by volume, sat 7th for scoring chances, and was 3rd for rush attempts on the team this season. Small sample though it were.
Ondrej Kase was another player shifted out at the trade deadline, in part due to injuries. If General Manager Bob Murray is to be taken at face value, he was too similar to the rest of the Ducks players and was shifted to find some different looking pieces. At the point of trade, Kase sat 6th on the team for scoring, 2nd for shots, 2nd for shot contributions, 2nd for most carry-ins to the offensive zone, 2nd for rush attempts, 7th for rebounds created, and 5th for scoring chances. These are raw numbers mind you, and when you take into account games played, Kase climbs the list. There’s no doubt that Kase has been an analytics darling for many years, despite only putting it together for a single 20 goal season. It’s also worth mentioning that he drew the 3rd most calls of all skaters on the team, and was 2nd on the team for takeaways. However, he’s no longer a Duck and fans can perhaps look forward to seeing a right-handed shooting defensive prospect in Axel Andersson patrolling the 3rd pairing in a few seasons.
The teams most recent top 10 draft pick, Nick Ritchie, was also less effective this season than in seasons past. It should be noted that his underlying statistics were stronger than last season’s, just not as strong as the two full seasons he had prior under the tutelage of Randy Carlyle. He too sat among the upper echelon of the Ducks this season. Ritchie was in the 7th position for points per game, 11th for offensive zone entries, 6th among forwards for defensive zone exits, 6th among the regular skaters for shots per minute, 3rd for expected goals per minute, 3rd for high danger chances per minute, 1st for rebounds created, and playing a heavy game helped him also climb to 5th on the team for hits. Ritchie was safe with the puck and a decent bet for keeping it for Anaheim. Only five regular Ducks had fewer giveaways per minute of play than he did. He was also hit fewer times than all but Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique. That is to say that when Ritchie had the puck he was able to do something with it. He was still moved to Boston for Danton Heinen despite his numbers.
Among the fallout it’s seemingly gone unnoticed that Troy Terry‘s career in the NHL has about been run off the rails. Given such high hopes from certain segments of the internet and media, Terry never really got it together at a high level, despite all his opportunities. With that said, his underlying numbers suggested he could be a reasonable 3rd line player if scoring was taken out of the equation. In many ways, it seems the Ducks have run out of patience with him as a scoring prospect and have sent him down to the AHL for the rest of the season. Given Comtois is coming and that the players the Ducks acquired at the deadline have performed better than expected, there simply might not be room for Terry to move into the top nine next season. This leaves him pushing to be a 4th line energy player, which perhaps isn’t his game. Nonetheless, Ducks fans will be familiar with another former college player who shifted his game from being an offensively orientated player to one that was tasked to shut down the opposition in Andrew Cogliano. Should Terry wish to continue with the Ducks, he could attempt to emulate Cogliano and his success story. After all, competing with Isac Lundestrom for a shutdown role will be infinitely easier than competing with the currently successful Sonny Milano, Danton Heinen, Rickard Rakell and Jacob Larsson for a top six role. Assuming Comtois is going to get the green light next season, there are not many spots going for players who can’t bury the biscuit.
This might be said of Brendan Guhle as well. Despite him coming into the team recently due to injuries and shooting lights out, his defensive play is still quite lax. For interest’s sake in this latest grouping of games commencing with his call up on February 9th, Guhle has seen the most shot attempts against of all the defensemen and discounting the newcomers Matt Irwin and Christian Djoos. He also has the highest expected goals against. This coming on the back of the most scoring chances and high danger chances amongst regular defensemen, which again is discounting Irwin who has both just arrived and shouldn’t be a regular NHL defenseman let alone playing the ~22 minutes a night he’s been getting. Guhle does have the highest PDO of all the defensemen, with a 10.9% shooting average and an on-ice save percentage of .922, at even strength. When that fails, and both of those metrics eventually will, what will Guhle have left to offer? Which is the question Bob Murray must ponder going forward. Assuming next season has a healthy group of players, we’d be looking at Cam Fowler-Gudbranson, Hampus Lindholm–Josh Manson, and Larsson-Djoos. Guhle is young enough that he’s not washed and without hope, yet he may not have a regular place in the lineup. Should the Ducks fall into expectations and draft Jamie Drysdale in the coming entry draft, the chances of Guhle securing a roster spot dwindle dramatically.
Of course, as new things come in, old things are thrown away. It is only to the Ducks benefit if their new players supersede the old ones. Sonny Milano was once considered the savior of the Columbus franchise, and yet the Ducks picked him up for a song. Well, if you ignore the games we all suffered through Devin Shore that is. Nothing against Shore himself, it was just unlikely that he was going to stick from the get-go, and it was a sad day moving on from Cogliano. However, in Milano, they have a big ball of potential. Only 8 months older than Terry, Milano had never really got it together in Columbus and often ended up in the coaches dog house. Yet, in the 5 games he’s played in Anaheim colors, he’s hit 4 points (2 goals and 2 assists), and his underlying numbers are at least passable. Heinen is the other who has come into the team with some success upfront. Since arriving Heinen has played in excess of 22 minutes per game and has 3 points across those 4 games. His underlying numbers don’t really support his heavy usage, however, and the Ducks aren’t necessarily trying to win games today as much as they are attempting to define a direction for the upcoming seasons. If Heinen can make his mark, he’s a good chance of sticking around. If not, well, there is the expansion draft coming up.
On the back end, Matt Irwin has been a warm body they’ll be happy to move on from quickly, or rather he would be if the coach wasn’t playing him 22 minutes a night. Needless to say, he’s been as advertised. A slightly lesser version of Korbinian Holzer. On the flip side of that, Christian Djoos has been a real find. The signs are certainly there as to why the Capitals had moved on from him, but for a Ducks team starved for NHL defensemen, Djoos has been a gift from heaven. Since his arrival, he leads all Ducks defencemen in all metrics. All of them. Well not quite, but close enough to make the point. The question will be whether he remains after the expansion draft next year, yet there’s no doubt that on a healthy team he supersedes the Ducks current young players in Brendan Guhle and Josh Mahura. It would not surprise to see a Djoos-Larsson third pairing next season.
What then does this all mean? Quite frankly it doesn’t mean much. These players who have come on strong and superseded the Ducks youth are all discards from stronger teams with cup fancies. It doesn’t mean that they’re not good players, conversely, most of them are solid players in their own rights. They’re not necessarily players that you build cup winning teams around, however. That is the crux of the argument for the Ducks moving forward. They need to acquire talent that forces these players out of the lineup. The coming entry draft is one such occasion they may be able to do this and with a potential top 3 pick on the cards, it seems likely that one of the current young players will be pushed out of the team. If the Ducks do as well to pick up Drysdale, then it would seem that Larsson, Guhle, and Mahura will be surplus to needs and shifted out-of-town. If the Ducks draft Byfield or Holtz, then one of the forwards will likely be sent packing. Should the Ducks draft #1 overall…. well then, the world might just be their oyster.
Nonetheless, what is certain is that the false hope from the seasons’ start has been washed away. The hype of Sam Steel being a potential Calder candidate is laughably in the rear vision mirror. The picture that Terry would be a big-time player has been shoved to the side. All that is certain is that change has come and will continue to come. The Ducks as they are can no longer continue to pretend that they have a team that requires only but a few tweaks. Or should I say that Ducks fans can no longer pretend this is the case.
dark. Next. Anaheim Ducks: Grading Bob Murray’s 2020 Trade Deadline Moves
The Anaheim Ducks organization itself has made the moves necessary to begin a necessary rebuild. The next 15 games are going to hurt, and the 82 after that will likely hurt just as much, as will the 82 after that. However, biting the bullet, ripping the band-aid off, burning the crops, salting the earth, and poisoning the wells will undoubtedly benefit the Ducks in future years. If those games are as fun as the recent Avalanche game, it’ll be a worthwhile endeavor. It’s time to become draft watchers, for that is where a new hope lies. Also, after watching MacKinnon end Ryan Getzlaf’s career the other night, we may need a new captain as well. Just some food for thought.
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