Ducks 2020 Draft Spotlight: Noel Gunler Adds Offensive Creativity to 1st Round
The Anaheim Ducks’ recent point streak has slightly changed their overall projected draft spot. Swedish winger, Noel Gunler, could be worth considering.
The recent point streak by the Anaheim Ducks has slightly changed the environment the team may be working under when the 2020 NHL Entry Draft comes along. That is to say, it’s realistically pushed them out of the top of the draft, although there is a chance the ping pong balls will bounce in their favor. Specifically, tankathon.com gives them an 8.5% chance at the 1st overall pick and an 8.9% chance at 3rd overall.
It’s a small chance that is dwarfed by the bottom 3 teams in the league, but it’s still a chance. More realistically, however, the Ducks are likely to pick between #5 and #7 overall. Sportsclubstats.com gives the Ducks a 23% chance at the 4th overall pick, while tankathon.com gives the Ducks a 34.5% chance at the #6 pick, and a 26.7% chance at the #7 selection.
Given the overwhelming chance that the Ducks will be selecting in the portion of the draft, today’s draft profile is going to seem a little out of the box. However, what are the chances they keep winning games? Low? High? Who knows! But, we should be ready just in case.
With that in mind I’ll be looking at the player Anaheim Ducks fans will inevitably and affectionately call “the Big Gun.” That’s right, Swedish winger, Noel Gunler, is in the spotlight.
Gunler is one of the oldest players first-time eligible for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, being born October 7th, 2001 (on my sister’s birthday, so according to his horoscope, he’s trouble). An offensively orientated player who can play on either wing, Gunler may have the most complete offensive game amongst draft-eligible prospects.
Noel Gunler Profile
Born: October 07, 2001 (18 yo), Lulea, Sweden Nation: Sweden Draft Year Team: Luleå HF (SHL) Position: RW (primarily)/LW Shoots: Right Height: 6’2”/187 cm Weight: 176 lbs/80 kg
Scoring history for each season can be found at eliteprospects.com
Speculation Could Still Be Cause for Concern
Tipped to go around 14th in the draft, Gunler might appear to be a bit of a reach, and in a lot of ways, he is. But, before delving into the nitty-gritty, let’s tick the obvious things off of the list. First things first, Gunler is a Swede. I’m just going to leave that there and let you think about what that means. Yep, that’s right. He’s as good as a Duck. Let’s all welcome him to Swedenheim. Well, perhaps not so fast.
With Gunler it’s worth getting the warts out of the way first, before talking about the good points. The biggest and most glaring of all, and one that given General Manager Bob Murray‘s temperament may be the kiss of death, is a perceived attitude problem stemming from a lack of maturity. It is worth considering here though, that these concerns are seemingly speculation for the most part.
At least, there were very few tangible proofs that I could find, thus the discussion seems to be a product of assumption. On one hand, where there is smoke there is fire, but on the other hand, it’s worth noting the immortal words of Mitch Hennessey (Samuel L Jackson, The Long Kiss Goodnight):
“Everybody knows, when you make an assumption, you make an ass out of you and umption.”
The first of the checkmarks on Gunler’s resume, that we can prove at least, are him going off at team officials when he was left off of the Swedish U18’s roster. This gives pause to two different issues: 1) that he went against team officials for what he considered a slight, and 2) that there must have been some unpublicized reason for him to be left off of that roster. Let me be very clear. There is no scenario in which Gunler was not a better option than the players who were selected ahead of him. That he is so clearly the superior player certainly alludes to something else going on. However, that is mere speculation.
However, rumors abound that these same attitude problems are the reason he was kept off of the U20’s at the World Junior Summer Showcase. A team he also wouldn’t have looked out of place on. There is even a simplistic argument that Gunler was more deserving of a roster spot than the other two players in Sweden’s “Big Three.”
At that time, Gunler had played 15 SHL games scoring 5 points, whereas his counterpart Lucas Raymond had played in only 10 games for 2 points. Alex Holtz had played in only 3 SHL contests for no score. Where there is smoke there is fire. Thus, it will be up to Gunler to show that he can make strides to become a model citizen, as it has already hurt his draft stock by not playing with these teams, and not being able to play in the Hlinka Tournament, though the Hlinka is no fault of his own.
The second red checkmark was an incident in the SuperElit League in which pushed over a linesman in a scrum. A scenario where players lay hands on officials will not be welcome within the Ducks organization and not in the NHL. While it may be unlikely to occur again, it does provide an insight into the Swede having a temper that he’s not currently able to control.
This second point, however, may not necessarily be the kiss of death for Gunler, that other attitude problems could be. In fact, it may be the reason he becomes a Duck. Bob Murray has taken chances on young players with perceived attitude problems in the past. For instance, the Patrick Maroon trade is one of the best in his tenure with the Ducks.
Murray also recently drafted power forward Max Jones, who has a multitude of attitude and maturity issues. Both players turned out well for the Ducks. Neither player has the offensive skill set that Gunler can bring. Should he manage to toe the line between feisty and aggressive, all the while bringing his skills to the fore, he will very likely make a team very, very, happy somewhere down the road. That team should maybe be the Anaheim Ducks.
Does He Lack the Physical Tools to Compeat on an Anaheim Ducks Roster?
Outside of the attitude issues, there are some uncertainties that have arisen in Gunler’s play while making the transition from SuperElit to the SHL. The biggest issue for Bob Murray might be that Gunler seemingly does not have the physical tools to compete during every moment of each and every shift. He has shown a tendency to force bad passes to teammates or to simply leave the puck behind to avoid making contact with the opposition.
It is here that I would caution people to make hasty judgments. Remember that Gunler is an 18-year-old competing in a grown man’s league. More than that, Gunler is not particularly large himself, as he weighs in at only 176 pounds. This may be where the Ducks sports science department led by Dr. Jeremy Bettle can begin to shine. Gunler has a pedigree of physical play in the SuperElit league, and it has only seemingly disappeared since joining a league in which most of the players are likely to be bigger and stronger than he is.
As most players would know, it’s also a standard practice to hit the newcomers – particularly the skilled ones – hard. It’s very likely Gunler’s timid persona in the SHL has come, in part, due to these issues. Might they disappear if he puts on some muscle and becomes a bigger, stronger, player?
Nonetheless, Gunler’s lack of physical presence is notable given that both the AHL and the NHL are much more physical than the SHL. Perhaps, more concerning for the player himself is that NHL teams showed their hand last year in letting a high skill player in Arthur Kaliyev slide. It seems that they are willing to overlook superior skills if a player’s work ethic is questionable.
The Anaheim Ducks, of course, were in that cohort of teams and opted to go with Brayden Tracey at the tail end of the 1st round. A fine choice in its own right, yet perhaps not as strong statistically as Kaliyev. Given that Bob Murray has, in the past, criticized one of his former 30 goal-scoring players for not backchecking twice before scoring (slight hyperbole), it could be a steep hill for Gunler to climb.
The Work That Has to Be Done
It’s likely Gunler’s physique is a mitigating factor in much of the “negative” things which can be said about him. For instance, while Gunler has excellent top-end speed, his acceleration could use quite a lot of work. It’s not to say that Gunler is a poor skater, because he isn’t. He just isn’t elite and still has a lot of work to put into it to get to that level. Increasing lower limb strength and power would pay dividends for increasing his acceleration in the first two strides.
Conversely, Gunler should be wary of changing his current skating form overly much. Currently, he has a wide, somewhat awkward-looking, stride, that while looking somewhat all over the place, still allows him to change direction well and reach that above average top speed. Perhaps most importantly, however, it seems to sneak up on defencemen.
Even at the SHL level, defencemen seem reluctant to close the gap and stick to him when he enters the offensive zone. As a result, he appears to do so almost at will. Whether the same result would be replicated in the NHL remains to be seen, however, it’s all too common to see players focus on changing something that quite frankly doesn’t need changing. A professional skating coach may work wonders, yet it may be that only small changes are required.
A further point that bears mentioning is that Gunler is rarely on the ice late during late-game scenarios, nor is he trusted to kill penalties. Although this latter point could be said of many, if not all, young players in professional hockey. Coaches are loath to let the youth learn those skills on the job when winning games is at a premium. In this, it’s possible that his elevation to the SHL is more of a hindrance than a boon.
Certainly, Gunler will make his money on the offensive end of the ice, rather than the defensive. He definitely had very little to prove there. However, the SHL, like most professional leagues, demands a complete package. They are not a training ground for new skill sets to blossom. However, the Ducks are no strangers to drafting out of the SHL, and in fact, Isac Lundestrom played for the same SHL team, so they’ll know what they’re getting.
An Offensive Threat the Anaheim Ducks Need in their Arsenal
Bugbears aside, Gunler is a lethal offensive threat that has yet to be fully realized at the professional level. Sitting on 9 points in 35 games (0.26 ppg), it would appear that Gunler’s scoring has tapered off. Context matters. The highest scorer on the team is on a mere 24 points (0.61 ppg) and gets far more minutes. However, moving past his SHL stats and going back to his final season in the SuperElit league, Gunler put up a stat line of 27 goals and 19 assists (46 points) in 31 games. To put that in perspective, only three players in the last two decades have beaten that production prior to their draft year: William Nylander (1.59 ppg), Lias Andersson (1.59 ppg), and Jesper Boqvist (1.53 ppg). It truly is exceptional production for a draft-minus-one player.
A goaltenders nightmare, Gunler’s shot is a weapon of great magnitude. Firstly, he has a deceptively quick release. It doesn’t matter if it’s a wrist-shot, a snap-shot or a one-timer, they all come off the blade fast, hard and accurate. It’s no exaggeration to say that his release is already elite. What may be even more impressive is how he generates his power.
To this, many would compare Gunler’s release to that of the Canucks forward, Elias Pettersson. They both have a sweeping type of release, exceptional transfer of weight, and a beautiful push-pull action of the wrists. Certainly, Pettersson is no slouch. However, after pouring in the criticism early, it’s now time for me to pour on the platitudes. I would direct you to envision the greatest goal scorer in league history. Alexander Ovechkin. How often do you see Ovie catch the pass, rock back onto the back foot, before driving forward with the shot?
A Talent Reminiscent of the Great 8
Gunler’s ability to generate drive and power, and to flex the stick, is reminiscent of Ovie’s and a far cry from the slow release so many junior hockey players present. I would in no way suggest Gunler has the ability to match the greatest scorer and soon to be #1 in goal scorer in NHL history, however, stylistically they are similar. With the Ducks screaming for a player who can shoot the puck to go onto a wing with last year’s #9 draft selection, Trevor Zegras, Gunler may be able to provide them with a howitzer they can’t readily pass up.
In close, out wide, a slapper from the point, Gunler can do it all. Although it must be noted that his favorite spot appears to be that left circle office, much like that great 8. Furthermore, a great strength of his is that he is able to execute at high speed. A cerebral player, Gunler’s instincts and ability to think the game is amongst the top of his age group. In some cases, he could be described as playing 5D chess, when everyone else is stuck on 3D.
Find the open man? Gunler can do it. Thread the eye of the needle? Gunler can not only do it, but he’ll also do it through the eye of the needle lost in the stack of needles. Alongside his lethal shot, Gunler’s attentiveness to the flow of the game is his trump card and ace in the hole rolled into one.
“Gunler is dangerous in transition and a great fast break playmaker. He has scoring ability sure, but so far in the games I’ve tracked of his, 28% of his pass attempts are directed at or through dangerous areas.” – Will Scouch (scouching.ca)
Noel Gunler Was Born to be Creative
Adding to the danger he presents on offense, Gunler is a well above average passer for a player many pundits write off as merely a trigger puller. He has no problem one-touch passing, and going from being the receiver to the passer in but an instant. However, it should be said that he does tend to overthink things and as a result, can force plays that might not be there. I would, however, argue that this is not necessarily a negative. Certainly, against great players he will be likely to turn the puck over, yet the Ducks faithful have seen the same thing from Ryan Getzlaf at times.
A brilliant facilitator in his own right, Getzlaf turns the puck over forcing back passes more than any Ducks fan would like. He also makes goals appear out of nothing more than any player should have the right to. Gunler has this type of vision. He won’t be the passer that Getzlaf is, but it would be a shame to iron the flair out of a young player who was born to be creative. The Anaheim Ducks need creativity, and Gunler can provide it if they’re willing to let him roam free and be excellent like the wild stallion he is.
Is Noel Gunler Worth the Anaheim Ducks First Round Pick?
For a risk-averse manager such as Bob Murray, all of the negative points might trump the positive and be enough for the Ducks to look elsewhere. In some way’s Gunler has the feel of a teen high school sports star resting on their laurels and relying on their skills.
For alongside this percieved attitude, comes “poor” effort defensively, and a seeming unawareness of what to do and where to go when the puck is not on his stick. It feels like he feels he can be effective without putting in too much effort. Ducks fans will appreciate this to some degree, as we lived through the “Getzlaf is lazy” narrative for too many years.
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However, in Gunler’s case, there may be some truth to it. Too often, instead of rushing back hard to on the backcheck, he might be seen heading to the bench to change. In the offensive zone, he may not rush to find space when the puck is not on his stick. When added to the perceived attitude problems that circulate about him, it may be enough for Gunler to drop in the mid-teens, or even as Arthur Kaliyev found last year, out of the first round entirely.
However, due to the lethal nature of his offensive game, Gunler might be the most polarizing and intriguing player in this season’s draft class. Due to a strong birthday day will now remind me to get my sister something, he’s my favorite of the Ducks possible draft selections. I highly suspect they go for a more highly touted prospect at their predicted landing spot, however, if they were to procure another 1st round pick I wouldn’t hesitate to jump on Gunler and wrap him up tightly. To be frank, I wouldn’t be upset if they took a flyer on him in the top 10.
The caveat in doing this is that it’s highly likely Gunler will take time to really develop his game. If the Anaheim Ducks drafted him early expecting him to contribute in the immediate future then they would be sorely disappointed. However, should he be able to slowly percolate out of the public eye, then I believe that he will both mature mentally, and develop the physical attributes that would mitigate all of his downsides and strengthen all of his already significant upsides. The talent is undeniable. It only remains to be seen whether the mind and body catch up.
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