Anaheim Ducks: Keeping the Faith In Jacob Larsson

Most Anaheim Ducks fans are well aware of the name Jacob Larsson at this point, but how well do we really know him? Despite some fans banding together to hate on him while others rush to his defense, no one truly knows just how successful he could still be.

Who really is Jacob Larsson? Well, the short answer is that Jacob Larsson is a prospect that was drafted by the Anaheim Ducks with what was possibly an unfair amount of hype. Selected relatively deep into the first round, he was expected to be another young player to roll off of the much-vaunted Anaheim defensive prospect production line.

Hyped to be part of the new generation of stay at home defencemen, Larsson was expected to be the foil for players such as Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Keaton Thompson or Marcus Pettersson, who were all drafted in the prior two seasons. He was supposed to be the type of skater who could transition from defense into offense with smooth skating or sharp passing as described by talent scouts.

“The amount of importance placed on swift and accurate puck movement from the blueline is no different than in previous eras. There is, however, a seismic shift in the way defensive defensemen are expected to contribute. One can no longer expect an everyday job simply because of the way they defend below the circles. The modern-day stay-at-home rearguard must grasp the idea that if he’s spending too much time “staying at home”, then he’s as big a part of the problem than anyone else playing alongside him. Swedish defenseman Jacob Larsson is part of the next generation of blueliners who understand this quite well. A gifted and patient puck distributor, Larsson has shown time and again that he has the brain and skills to limit the amount of time both he and his teammates spend chasing and covering opponents within the wrong side of the ice.” – The Draft Analyst “Jacob Larsson is not flashy, but he has solid all-around skill.  His wrist shot and slapshot are good, but not bombs. He is extremely smart though, and makes sure to get it on net, and keep it low for rebounds and tip-ins.  He shows good poise with the puck on his stick and makes smart plays.  Larsson’s vision and passing skill is excellent.  He makes a great first pass out of his zone, and can make the long stretch pass if a forward is open.  He has not really shown the passing skills in the offensive zone though, he’s decent back there, but his ability as a “power play quarterback” seems limited.  Larsson isn’t one to lead the rush and go coast to coast very often, but he can join as a trailer and let go his accurate shot.” – Ben Kerr, Last Word on Sports

The Ugly Truth and Backlash

However, it should be mentioned that despite all the platitudes following his draft selection, Larsson did have his bugbears against quality competition. In one particular 8-3 drubbing for a WJC bronze medal in January 2016, Larsson looked lethargic, out of sorts, and was on the ice for 5 of the USA goals. While Larsson did end up with an even rating over the entire tournament, note that he was not used a great deal by his coaches during 5v5 hockey, and instead received most of his minutes on special teams.

Many fans ignored these warning signs and instead focused on the narrative that General Manager Bob Murray is a genius at drafting and a savant at smoking out quality NHL defensemen in the draft environment. Further compounding this was Larsson making the NHL team over Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour. Then Coach Randy Carlyle appreciated his steady play and chose to play Larsson for ~16 minutes a game for a short cup of coffee in his début season. Those games were enough to get the more easily excited fans really pumped up. Larsson fired off a few shots and managed to get them through traffic. The more discerning fan might have suggested they were mostly going wide, although suggesting that a prospect who was not known for scoring in junior, or even SHL hockey, might not be a scorer in the NHL is always going to be shot down in the name of positivity.

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Regardless, Larsson was slightly undercooked and was sent back to Frolunda in the SHL to further percolate. Putting up 4 points in 7 playoff games, he had the Anaheim faithful frothing up like a washing machine on spin cycle, and so the hype machine went overboard. However, Larsson underwent offseason knee surgery over that offseason and came into the regular season undercooked. Things were not looking too good.

Due to starting behind the proverbial eight-ball, and not being able to adequately prepare for the season, he picked up many injuries throughout the year. Although given his usage today by the same coach who took in that first AHL season, there may be something more to those injury occurrences. It would be mere speculation on my part to say that is the truth, however. From this point on Larsson by all accounts worked on his defensive game under AHL coach Dallas Eakins, and when an opportunity came with the parent club, he was called up. As the season went on, his play appeared to get stronger and stronger. Particularly when paired with Josh Manson, for as short a time as that was.

This season, however, has seen Larsson come into the team on a nearly full-time basis. It has also seen the fan base that was once so vocally behind him turn on him quicker than a cut snake. So, the question is now this: at 22 years age and in his first full-time NHL season, who is Jacob Larsson?

Finding the Answer to the Million Dollar Question

While the fans were probably not expecting a huge breakout season from Larsson this year, the narrative certainly went along the lines of him improving. Particularly given that his coach of the previous couple of years in Dallas Eakins was to become his coach once again. While he hadn’t shown much develop over those few years, there was little doubt among the faithful that this year would be the year coach would unlock the riddle.

During the preseason, it seemed like he really might. Amongst the Ducks defensemen, he ranked 3rd for time on ice, 2nd for assists and points, 2nd for shots on net, 5th for expected goals for, and 1st for rebounds created. Notably, for a defensively orientated defenseman, he also had the fewest giveaways per game out of that group.

The preseason does not require the same caliber of play as the regular season does, and only the most foolish fan would suggest that results garnered in a preseason game would map over in their entirety once the regular season commences. However, it is a time that fringe players and prospects can earn a chance. Larsson did exactly that.

Some of Larsson’s pre-season form has even carried over into the 2019-2020 season. Only Korbinian Holzer and Cam Fowler have fewer giveaways per game and only Fowler has fewer per minute of ice time. This makes him safe when he has the puck and may give the coach some assurance when he trots him onto the ice. Perhaps more than anything, it provides a building block for a future defensive-minded defenseman to work with.

However, Larsson is offensively limited and what little offense he showed has certainly dried up from the preseason. Currently, he sits on 0.13 points per game, which is the third-lowest total of any Ducks defensemen this year. Only Josh Manson and Holzer trail him. However, in that statistic, perhaps you can find the trend. The three lowest scoring defensemen this season are defensemen that would traditionally be considered “stay at home” defensemen. Even Manson has seemingly fallen away – although, in reality, it’s more likely that his 37 points during the 2017-2018 season were an aberration more than the norm. If that would be the case, he’s on pace for his usual ~15-18 points per season. Thus, given that Larsson was always billed as a defensive defenceman, it seems as though we should discard the idea that he will be a point producer from the blue line and focus on other aspects of his play.

The Defensive-Minded Defenseman

The problem that arises when judging Larsson is that defensive-minded defensemen take time to develop. It has always traditionally been the case, and there would be few that refute it. There are outliers of course. This season we see Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes defying logic and putting up points in buckets at a young age and with relative inexperience. However, I would suggest that these players are more akin to forwards than the traditional defenseman. They often lead the breakout, skating at high-speed out of the zone. They are shooting the puck with more frequency than players may have done in the past. They’re taking short shifts, which changes the energy systems (in the physiological sense) they use, to become closer to that of a forward. For interest’s sake, forwards are typically more anaerobic than defensemen, which typically have a greater reliance on the aerobic system – think short and fast, versus longer and slower. Your typical forward goes out and skates fast, hits big and takes big shots, then gets off the ice quickly. The defenseman is out there longer, as they typically trail the play, are not required to skate as fast or as hard. Physiologically speaking, anaerobic strength and power peaks at younger ages than aerobic power. This lends greater credibility to young forwards ‘peaking’ earlier and being greater at scoring goals in their youth as opposed to old age (in hockey terms).

However, Larsson isn’t that type of player. He’s a nice skater, but he’s not out there going all-in every shift. He’s got a nice shot, but it is not a nuclear threat clapper from the blue line. These are not knocks on the player, they’re just not where his skill set lies. Typically speaking, his strength lies in gap control and breaking up passing lanes with a clever stick. He’s a smooth skater and can make an initial outlet pass, but he’ll be trailing the play and not overly involved in the offense. He’s likely to be the player the coach trots out against the high-end players on the opposite team, and the player taking long shifts to make sure everyone else can change. Thus, due to the game he plays, and the physiological energy systems he’s likely to use, his peak years are likely to arrive later than his more offensive counterparts.

Photographic Struggles

Some parts of Larsson’s play are somewhat under-cooked even given he’s likely to take longer to mature. For example, take a look at this recap of the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens most recent matchup to see how Larsson did. If we look at the Gallagher goal scored in the second period of the game at 3:31 – 3:40, we see Larsson (#32) check Gallagher along the boards. Both players fall, but Larsson fails to keep track of his man once they both get to their feet. Gallagher uses the defensively irresponsible Troy Terry (#61) as a partial screen creating separation between him and Larsson and fades towards the central corridor unmanned. When Kovalchuk shovels the pass towards the front of the net, Holzer does enough to prevent that pass from connecting, with the unfortunate circumstance that it goes through to the unchecked Gallagher instead. Larsson then moves in to cover him, however, the release of a genuine NHL goal scorer is too quick to give that kind of time and space.

Certainly, Larsson could have expected to get some support from his forwards (i.e. What on earth was Terry doing?), however, it was Larsson’s man who went on to score. These types of plays should be a learning curve for Larsson, however, he has played close to 100 games in the NHL and nearly the same amount in the SHL and AHL. Larsson is no stranger to professional hockey. While many pundits would suggest that 300 NHL games are the required amount from which to judge a young defenseman, it could also be suggested that keeping track of your man is a fundamental skill of the position. Larsson doesn’t even look at him until it’s too late.

Thus perhaps this is the player that Larsson is. Maybe his potential is tapped out. Perhaps the learning curve the coach and fans are expecting of him is too steep of a hill to climb in a single bound.

Reading Between the Positive Lines of Numbers

While Larsson’s underlying statistics make for pretty grim reading, a caveat has to be made for his linemates and his matchups. Firstly, while playing on lower lines doesn’t necessarily make for easier match-ups, it does reduce the quality of your teammates. No disrespect to Holzer and Michael Del Zotto (the two players that Larsson has played the most minutes with), but neither player is Cam Fowler. This will impact Larsson’s results.

For example, Larsson has played three meaningful games with Fowler as his primary defensive partner. In those games he averaged the following during 5v5 play: 15 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time, 54.7 Corsi-For%, 59.8 Fenwick-For%, 64.1 Shots-For%, 53.7 expected-Goals-For%, 77.7% scoring-chances-for relative to teammates, and 93.3% high-danger-chances-for relative to teammates. While a three-game spread is the smallest of sample sizes, these are solid numbers for anyone let alone a 22-year-old defensive defenseman.

Conversely, he has played 23 games with Holzer for the following spread of numbers: 12 minutes and 20 seconds of ice time, 43.1 Corsi-For%, 41.1 Fenwick-For%, 42,7 Shots-For%, and 42.4 expected-Goals-For%. These are massive drops, and in most cases, the numbers Larsson presents “without” Holzer are far superior. For instance, Corsi-For% improves to 50.6%, and expected-goals-for% creep up to 48.5%. Thus, we can see that Larsson is in part being held back by playing with Holzer in this instance.

Of course, playing with Holzer would suggest that this pairing would be somewhat sheltered. However, this isn’t necessarily the case. For instance, on the road games, the opposition is going to attempt to take advantage of weaker pairings in order to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Therefore, that pairing will face quality players at least some of the time.