Anaheim Ducks: Keeping the Faith In Jacob Larsson

Photographic Struggles

Some parts of Larsson’s play are somewhat under-cooked even given he’s likely to take longer to mature. For example, take a look at this recap of the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens most recent matchup to see how Larsson did. If we look at the Gallagher goal scored in the second period of the game at 3:31 – 3:40, we see Larsson (#32) check Gallagher along the boards. Both players fall, but Larsson fails to keep track of his man once they both get to their feet. Gallagher uses the defensively irresponsible Troy Terry (#61) as a partial screen creating separation between him and Larsson and fades towards the central corridor unmanned. When Kovalchuk shovels the pass towards the front of the net, Holzer does enough to prevent that pass from connecting, with the unfortunate circumstance that it goes through to the unchecked Gallagher instead. Larsson then moves in to cover him, however, the release of a genuine NHL goal scorer is too quick to give that kind of time and space.

Certainly, Larsson could have expected to get some support from his forwards (i.e. What on earth was Terry doing?), however, it was Larsson’s man who went on to score. These types of plays should be a learning curve for Larsson, however, he has played close to 100 games in the NHL and nearly the same amount in the SHL and AHL. Larsson is no stranger to professional hockey. While many pundits would suggest that 300 NHL games are the required amount from which to judge a young defenseman, it could also be suggested that keeping track of your man is a fundamental skill of the position. Larsson doesn’t even look at him until it’s too late.

Thus perhaps this is the player that Larsson is. Maybe his potential is tapped out. Perhaps the learning curve the coach and fans are expecting of him is too steep of a hill to climb in a single bound.

Reading Between the Positive Lines of Numbers

While Larsson’s underlying statistics make for pretty grim reading, a caveat has to be made for his linemates and his matchups. Firstly, while playing on lower lines doesn’t necessarily make for easier match-ups, it does reduce the quality of your teammates. No disrespect to Holzer and Michael Del Zotto (the two players that Larsson has played the most minutes with), but neither player is Cam Fowler. This will impact Larsson’s results.

For example, Larsson has played three meaningful games with Fowler as his primary defensive partner. In those games he averaged the following during 5v5 play: 15 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time, 54.7 Corsi-For%, 59.8 Fenwick-For%, 64.1 Shots-For%, 53.7 expected-Goals-For%, 77.7% scoring-chances-for relative to teammates, and 93.3% high-danger-chances-for relative to teammates. While a three-game spread is the smallest of sample sizes, these are solid numbers for anyone let alone a 22-year-old defensive defenseman.

Conversely, he has played 23 games with Holzer for the following spread of numbers: 12 minutes and 20 seconds of ice time, 43.1 Corsi-For%, 41.1 Fenwick-For%, 42,7 Shots-For%, and 42.4 expected-Goals-For%. These are massive drops, and in most cases, the numbers Larsson presents “without” Holzer are far superior. For instance, Corsi-For% improves to 50.6%, and expected-goals-for% creep up to 48.5%. Thus, we can see that Larsson is in part being held back by playing with Holzer in this instance.

Of course, playing with Holzer would suggest that this pairing would be somewhat sheltered. However, this isn’t necessarily the case. For instance, on the road games, the opposition is going to attempt to take advantage of weaker pairings in order to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Therefore, that pairing will face quality players at least some of the time.