Anaheim Ducks: 3 Takeaways from the 2019-20 Preseason
The Anaheim Ducks preseason is quickly coming to a close. What have been the biggest takeaways thus far?
With only one preseason game left, the Anaheim Ducks regular season is quickly approaching. We’ve seen both good and bad from the team, but what have been the biggest takeaways? Before you, the reader, continue reading this article, I should present a couple of provisions. A disclaimer of sorts, if you will.
Firstly, as a fan, I take little stock of the preseason. Certainly, I do not consider the score and very rarely evaluate skill errors when they occur. Players will make mistakes and it may take some longer than others to shake that rust off. Similarly, I also take very little stock in the effort a player may or may not exude, at least until the point that it appears to be a reflection of the style they may be tasked to play in the coming season.
Secondly, the preseason, to me, is a time for the coaching staff to teach, and to evaluate whether or not certain players will fit within the system they are attempting to implement going forward. The team will want to come out of preseason, hitting the regular season in full flight; players in game shape and systems functioning.
We, as fans, are extremely unlikely to see a finished product out on the ice, and at no point would I consider that what we’ve seen so far is the answer to any questions we as fans may have. However, we will certainly catch glimpses of what the team is attempting to undertake. A play here, trends there. These are the few things we can accurately determine from a preseason game.
Thirdly, for those who don’t know me from other places, I took a relatively dim view of Bob Murray’s hiring of Dallas Eakins. While I fully believe that a person or a coach should be given a second chance, I also believe that they should undergo an apprenticeship of sorts. Go back and learn under other coaches. Expand their idea base. Acting in a head coach capacity since his last NHL stint, a tenure which was arguably the worst of any coaching regime since the NHL expansion began, Eakins hasn’t really had the opportunity to do so.
Daryl Sutter coming in, in an over coaching role, is a great idea to further this ideal. However, perhaps it would have been better to groom Eakins as an assistant under him for a season or two first. Furthermore, I also haven’t been impressed with the prospects that have come from his San Diego team. To my mind, nearly all of them have looked lost and out of place at the NHL until the NHL coach at the time had time to mold them and re-teach them positioning and structure.
So with that said in advance, there have been a number of things that have stood out in my mind during the televised preseason games. However, it should be noted that there is a caveat of my missing the initial San Jose game, as I currently live internationally, and was not able to view the telecast.
Troy Terry, the Gunslinger
Troy Terry is a young player that many Anaheim Ducks fans have tremendously high hopes for. After an excellent college career, he went on to beat up the amateur players in the last Olympics. Looking lost and out of place in his first NHL stint, he was sent back to the AHL to work on his game and the skills he learned in the big show allowed him to put together an excellent showing. This buoyed play continued somewhat once he returned to the NHL. Coming into this season, it was reported by Elliott Teaford, that the current coaching staff would place Terry alongside Ryan Getzlaf upon top line.
Most fans would have been extremely optimistic at this news, however, the question also remained as to who would score the goals on that line? Who would retrieve the puck? Those who may have read previous articles of mine would note that I have a certain idea’s regarding line constructing: a) that each player complements the others and b) that each player is given a role that they can make their own.
For much of his career to date, Terry has been primarily used in a playmakers role. From way back in 2011-2012 and bantam hockey, Terry has had only the single season in which he has exceeded the 20 goal plateau (22 goals in 2016-2017, Univ. of Denver), yet multiple where he has eclipsed 20 assists per season. Thus, how would a pass-first player fair on a line on which the pivot is one of the best passers in the game? Would their skill sets complement each other, allowing the line to become heavy on puck movement and opening up the ice, or would the players get in each other’s way and prevent genuine scoring chances.
From the games played thus far, it appears the answer is both. Firstly, and perhaps most notably, Terry has been the primary shooter on a number of plays. This seems to be the coaching staff’s answer to a lack of high-end goal scorers on the team, and particularly given the fact that Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg appear to be set riding shotgun to the other high profile youngster on the team, Sam Steel.
A shooting Terry may have some benefits to it, in that with another threat on the ice, teams won’t simply be able to hone in on Getzlaf and shut him out of the game. This may even carry over to the power play, in that if teams are aware that Terry will shoot, then perhaps Getzlaf gets a little more time and space to let off his own underrated shot. A shot we saw score against the LA Kings the other night.
Specifically, Terry attempted 3.27 shots per 60, and 7.33 individual Corsi attempts per game last season in the NHL. So far this preseason we’ve seen those totals climb to 6.09 shots per 60, and 12.18 individual Corsi attempts. These increases in individual shooting metrics predictably correlate to increases in some related statistics.
Namely the massive increases in Terry’s individual scoring chance % (8.12 from 4.99 per 60 minutes of play), high-danger chances for (4.06 from 2.34 per 60 minutes of play) and expected goals for (0.76 from 0.38 per 60 minutes of play). A near doubling of his shooting metrics is a clear change in usage from one season to the last, and while #Terryisverygood may be the hashtag making the rounds in certain circles, do these stats tell the entire story?
Terry’s shot in itself isn’t a particularly threatening shot, as evident by his lack of career goal-scoring at any level, it is certainly effective enough to net him 10-15 in an NHL season. Yet, the Kings found it easy to deal with the other night. During one particular sequence of play, Terry fired off two separate shots. The first was slow enough to get off that the Kings defenceman was able to make the decision to block the shot.
The second was perhaps even slower to get off, and the Kings defencemen actively chose to move out of the way and give his netminder a clean look at stopping it. These shots all came on his off-wing side. With that said, Terry did rip a wonderful shot off his natural wing, as Getzlaf took the puck around behind the net and fed him the puck at the circle. This would likely be the shot that gains him the most tallies, and it really was a dangerous looking opportunity.
It’s also worth noting that a 10-15 goal scorer isn’t much of a threat on a top line. It allows the defense two options: a) they shut down Getzlaf, and see if the rest of the line can do enough damage to hurt them, or b) they shut down everyone else and see if the aging Getzlaf can beat them all by himself. Either option has it’s merits and either option puts the Ducks in a tough spot if their other lines cannot come through with the goods for whatever reason.
Perhaps more pertinent is that while Terry has individually increased his shooting metrics, the on-ice product of the Ducks while he’s out there has taken a significant dip. Thus far in the preseason, Terry has been largely paired with Captain Ryan Getzlaf, although the left-wing slot has changed somewhat game to game.
Getzlaf, of course, has a solid history of having positive shooting metrics of the course of his long career, and despite aging seemingly has some left in the tank. Thus, it’s worth noting that while Terry has individually improved his outputs by nearly double, so too has the on-ice product been nearly halved. The Ducks, while Terry is on the ice, have dipped their on-ice scoring chances to 30% from last season’s 48.2%, and their high-danger chances to 27.3% from 46% last season.
Without looking too deeply, it’s worth mention that Terry himself, is currently ranked as the worst of the Ducks forwards in terms of shot metrics (Corsi for % = 32.1%), the fourth-worst with expected goals against (3.48 per 60) and 3rd worst for expected goal total. Only Sam Carrick and Chase De Leo rated lesser results than he has thus far. For those interested in some of the newer metrics, Terry’s average gamescore thus far this preseason is 0.10 which is pretty uninspiring for someone so wildly hyped.
Getzlaf, the Anaheim Ducks best forward and Terry’s present linemate are also currently sitting below 50% for Corsi For % and expected goals. So too are all of the other players Terry has been paired with. However, each of them all has positive metrics when away from Terry himself. That is to say that Terry, at least up until the most recent pre-season game (vs the Kings), has been somewhat detrimental to his line-mates ability to score despite the positive changes presented at face value.
One important caveat is the most recent game against the Kings. In this game, Terry had no individual attempts at the net until the third period and very few overall. In this game, his lines output was far superior to what it had presented over the past preseason games. While almost certainly a product of convenient coincidence and score effect, it is also worth noting that when Terry did start to shoot the puck in the 3rd frame (and he had a wonderful chance at one point) his lines dominance began to wane.
Thus, these data points, with the underlying knowledge that this is only preseason, may suggest that playing Terry as a shooting option is a net negative for the Ducks as a whole. While I certainly don’t think that two pass-first players are an optimal choice on a line without a genuine scoring threat, attempting to manufacture a goal scorer doesn’t appear to be working thus far and they may be better rewarded by allowing Terry to be a passing option and exploring a trade option for a scorer.
I think it would be interesting to see if having two strong passing players on a line would work with a dynamic goal scorer and would certainly be a consideration if the price on Patrick Laine came down enough for Bob Murray to consider placing a bid. However, given the current construction of the Anaheim Ducks and the pieces they have to work with, I can’t help but wonder if Terry’s greatest value is as trade bait for a big fish. That, of course, is a debate for another day.
Max Jones, the Stud Muffin
If you weren’t already on board the Max Jones bandwagon after his energetic play last season, then this preseason should have nudged you towards buying a ticket. Strong and fast, Jones is a bull.
Jones appears to have the hands of Jason Blake with every shot he fires honing in on the netminder’s chest protector like a logo seeking missile. However, let us not forget Jason Blake was once a 40-goal scorer. Can Jones become a 40-goal scorer? While this is probably unlikely, the Jones line, and Jones as an individual, is converting those Corsi events to meaningful and dangerous opportunities. This is certainly, a massive step in the right direction.
Both last year, and so far this season, Jones has been one of the teams better defensive forwards, and outside of actual goal-scoring, one of the teams most dangerous players. Thus far during the preseason, Jones ranks 7th amongst forwards for high danger chances, 9th for scoring chances, and 10th for expected goals, at even strength.
While some may think that isn’t necessarily notable, it should be taken into consideration that he has played more even-strength minutes than all of the players ahead of him on the list. He also has one of the lowest PDO’s on the team at 88%. This comes on the back of last seasons efforts in which he was the ranked 4th for Corsi For %, expected goals %, scoring chance %, and high-danger scoring chance %, amongst forwards who played more than 3 games.
While data points and numbers surely don’t tell the whole story, they are certainly backed up by the eye test. Jones seemingly charges towards the net at will, using his size and strength to bully opposition defencemen out of the way and his speed to blow past them like they’re traffic cones. Jones is exhibiting every hallmark of the prototypical power forward with a new school bent.
Can Jones become a top 6 player? The jury is certainly out. However, in his present 3rd line role he is everything any team could possibly want in that slot. Strong. Fast. Defensively responsible. A dangerous offensive weapon. Presuming much, the day Jones’s hands catch up with the rest of his play he won’t merely be the best of the Anaheim Ducks youngsters, he’ll be one of the premier power forwards in the league. A dominant force on the ice and an absolute joy to watch.
The Youngest D
Recently, there has been much talk about the Ducks lack of top-4 defencemen, and right-handed ones at that. While I’ve discussed that in previous articles, it seems to me that the play of two of the Ducks young left-handed defencemen is rendering the argument moot. Jacob Larsson and Brendan Guhle have both scarcely put a skate wrong all preseason and are making a strong case for either (or both) to be included full time on the NHL roster.
Amongst Anaheim Ducks defencemen this preseason, both players rank in the top 5 for shooting metrics, with Larsson the best at preventing Corsi attempts. Similarly, both are in the top 3 for expected goals against, with Larsson again leading the charge. This is somewhat reversed for high-danger chances, with Guhle being the best of the skaters there, and Larsson being a close second. All this coming together to put Guhle on top of the defensive corp’s gamescore ratings (and second overall) with Larsson coming in 5th place amongst defencemen, and 13th overall.
Perhaps most importantly, they’ve both played with different players, which would allow coach Eakins to even out the minutes and solidify the defense. With Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson expected to be joined at the hip, only Cam Fowler is left as an experienced Top-4 option. Guhle was paired with him last season, and articles were written this preseason about Fowler continuing to mentor him. From what we’ve seen this preseason, that pairing is likely to continue.
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Guhle has played the majority of his games with Fowler and thus far has excelled. While the statistics show that he’s performed strongly, they, more importantly, illuminate what the casual fan has seen with the eye-test. On many occasions, we’ve seen Guhle put on a burst of speed and engage with the offense. On other occasions, we’ve seen him use his reach to break up plays. In the most recent preseason game, we saw him reach in and take away a certain goal, with Miller out of position. Certainly still a rookie and prone to the mistakes of youth, Guhle has at least cemented himself in the minds of fans and hopefully the coaching staff.
Larsson has spent the bulk of his minutes between Korbinian Holzer and Michael Del Zotto. Holzer and Del Zotto, of course, are most likely a 7th defensemen on most teams in the league, however, both will likely play a high number of games on the Ducks third pairing this season. Larsson, however, has shown that he deserves to be the one fixture and that the veterans are the ones who rotate in and out of the team around him. Both the Holzer and Del Zotto pairings have presented strongly, although in different aspects of the game. Larsson and Del Zotto, has been stifling defensively, while Larsson and Holzer have been surprisingly strong offensively.
Given that the Anaheim Ducks have actively drafted or traded for these two young players, it seems best to live through their growing pains and see how far they develop. While fans have cooled on the previously mentioned Faulk trade after seeing his long contract extension, the thought behind acquiring an additional top-4 defenceman is still about. While only preseason, Guhle and Larsson, should be putting that thought to bed. Young, talented, and exciting. They’ve been everything fans could hope for this preseason.
Game Score courtesy of hockeystatcards.com. All other statistical data courtesy of naturalstattrick.com
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