Checking In On My Bold Pre-Season Predictions
Prior to the start of the Anaheim Ducks 2018-19 season, I made it a point to make some bold predictions, how have they held up now that the season is wrapping up?
I like to speculate almost as much as I love my Anaheim Ducks, I love trade rumors, I love figuring out who is a good fit where, and to see if I can maybe see something that others don’t. Following the first day of Free Agency on July 2nd, I made 11 predictions, some bolder than others, 8 of these 11 I can make a judgment on right now, the remaining 3 are a bit up in the air but never-the-less let’s take a look at how they’re holding up.
Prediction 1: St. Louis will rebound and make the playoffs, winning at least one playoff series.
The start of this season, this looked like a really, really bad take. Starting the season 7-9-3, firing their coach and proceeding to go 7-7-1 to head into the Christmas Break, But here we are with 4 games remaining in the season and the Blues have rebounded to go 28-12-4 since then and currently sit perched in the 3rd seed in the Central Division, likely setting up a playoff matchup with either the Nashville Predators or Winnipeg Jets in the first round, both of which considered favorites in the West, but both on a bit of a cold streak as they sit 5-4-1 and 5-5 in their last 10 games respectively.
Result of Hot Take: So far so good. Playoffs are an entirely different animal, but the Blues have clinched a playoff spot and could be a formidable foe in the playoffs if Jordan Binnington proves to be more than just a flash in the pan, and they can get some big play from Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.
Prediction 2: Toronto will make it past the first round of the playoffs, but not past the Lightning
Toronto has been a team on the rise the past couple seasons, they came into this season signing the biggest free-agent in recent memory bringing home John Tavares to play for his childhood favorite team. Toronto started the season incredibly strong, with Auston Matthews, Tavares, and Mitch Marner all putting up awe-inspiring numbers and Morgan Reilly putting up numbers offensive numbers reminiscent of a forward. The Leafs have had a bit of an up-and-down season, at times looking like a Stanley Cup contender, and others leaving fans wondering if the team is more smoke and mirrors than substance. Since the beginning of March, the Leafs boast a record of 6-5-3, not exactly inspiring, but not overly alarming on the surface. But digging deeper you’ll see that over that stretch the Leafs won only 1 game against a team who is projected to make the playoffs (That being the Calgary Flames the beginning of March). They show losses to Tampa, Vancouver, Chicago, Nashville, the Rangers, the Flyers and the league-worst Senators twice. Needless to say, the Leafs have shown the potential to be a threat in the league, but they’ve also shown some streakiness.
Result of Hot Take: This one hasn’t come to fruition yet, and as we sit here right now I’m less than confident in the take. The Leafs will all but certainly play the Boston Bruins in the first round of the playoffs, a Bruins team that has defeated the Leafs 2 out of their last 3 trips to the playoffs, including last season. The past is the past, but that history could linger in their heads and affect the outcome, but as of right now, this take is not finished.
Prediction 3: The Central Division Will Win Both Wild Card Positions
The Western Conference this season has been a mixed bag, and a dumpster fire of the worst kind. The West is simply not good this season a few teams withstanding. The 2 teams at the top of the Central Division currently (The Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators) would only be 1 point clear of the wild-card spot in the East, and the 3rd place team in both the Pacific and Central Division wouldn’t even be in the playoffs if they were in the East. Even so, the prediction here was that both teams in the wild-card spots at the end of the season would be from the Central Division, and as we sit here now, that is the case. The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche currently hold the two spots with only the Arizona Coyotes within true striking distance (They sit 1 point back)
The Dallas Stars are one win away from clinching a playoff spot, and while the Avalanche are only one point clear of the Coyotes, they have a game in hand, however, the Coyotes only play 2 playoff teams in their final 3 games, while the Avalanche plays 3 playoff teams in their final 4.
Result of Hot Take: Like the previous prediction, this one is up in the air currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if this one stayed true (Although I would like to see Arizona in the playoffs personally)
Prediction 4: The Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings will miss the playoffs
This one was fairly controversial to start the season, most fans of the Ducks saw them at the very least pushing for a wild-card spot, same with the Kings. It’s not hard to see why this take was controversial, to find the last time that both of these teams missed the playoffs you have to go back all the way to 2003-04. The following 13 NHL seasons one or both of the Kings and Ducks made the playoffs. It’s quite crazy to think about that and to see how the mighty have fallen. But as things stand right now, the Ducks and Kings are the two worst teams in the Western Conference, and both have been officially eliminated from the playoffs at this point.
Result of Hot Take: Dead on, both the Ducks and Kings have been eliminated from the playoffs, both teams will look to the off-season to re-tool and build towards next season, but this season is over for both of them.
Prediction 5: Vegas will regress pretty significantly and miss the playoffs
The “Cinderella Story” of last season, the Vegas Golden Knights were the darling of the NHL, they made it to the Stanley Cup Final in their maiden voyage and had expectations sky-high entering this season. A lot of people saw the Knights as a fluke, a one-hit wonder, and while I didn’t explicitly think that they were a fluke, I thought that the losses of David Perron and James Neal would have a significant impact on the team, and I wasn’t sold that William Karlsson who led the team in Goals and points in their inaugural season would be able to repeat his impressive start.
Result of Hot Take: Wrong, but not entirely. The Knights have regressed fairly significantly. They’re 9 wins and 18 points away from last season’s final total. Both Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson are down several points (18 for Marchessault and 23 for Marchessault and Karlsson respectively) from their last season’s total. As well, I made these predictions on July 1st, and I would have changed my tune a bit had I known that the Knights would acquire both Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone this season.
Prediction 6: Chicago will not make the playoffs
This one wasn’t a hugely hot take, the Hawks missed the playoffs last year, and haven’t won a playoff series since they won the cup in 2015, but there was a little bit of optimism surrounding this team in the off-season and a team with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will always have the chance to surprise. The Blackhawks are not eliminated from the playoffs race just yet, as they sit 6 points back from the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s only a matter of time for the team currently 7th in the Central division.
Result of… Lukewarm Take: Correct, but nothing to brag about.
Prediction 7: Edmonton, Calgary and one of SJ or Arizona will be the Pacific Division Playoff teams
I pictured the Edmonton Oilers rebounding a bit, it’s really hard to fathom a team with arguably the best player in the entire world not being able to make the playoffs in the weakest division in hockey… But here we are and the Oilers find yet another way to disappoint their fans and waste another year of Connor McDavid. Meanwhile, SJ and Arizona were duking it out for the 3rd spot in my mind, but these predictions were made prior to Erik Karlsson joining the SJ Sharks, getting a defenseman of that caliber certainly shakes things up a bit. Arizona has been pesky, and despite injuries that would even make the Ducks blush, are still in the thick of things. The Knights success has pushed the Coyotes down just a bit, but not unfathomable to think they still make the playoffs, albeit in the Wild Card rather than a divisional spot.
Result of Hot Take: Partly correct. Calgary made it, SJ made it, Arizona could make it, but Chiarelli did Chiarelli things and the Oilers did not.
Prediction 8: Islanders, Canadiens, Canucks, Senators and Red Wings will be the bottom 5 teams
Starting with the Senators, Canucks, and Red Wings, those 3 are in the thick of a rebuild, and while progress was expected from the latter 2, neither did I predict to make the playoffs, the Canadiens and the Islanders were facing some tumultuous times and while the Islanders were bringing in the coach who was fresh off a Stanley Cup win, and the Canadiens had a shiny new toy in the way of Jesperi Kotkaniemi to be excited about, I didn’t expect either of them to compete for the playoffs.
Result of Hot Take: As it stands now, the Islanders are a playoff team, the Canadiens are a point out of the wild card spot, neither of them will be in the bottom 5, the Canucks also won’t be a bottom 5 team, although they will likely be close. Detroit and the Senators were correct, rounded out by New Jersey, Buffalo, and LA.
Prediction 9: Buffalo will push for a playoffs spot, but come up just short
Buffalo fans had quite a bit to be excited about, Rasmus Dahlin was being compared to Niklas Lidstrom, they hadn’t yet acquired Jeff Skinner, but that was coming shortly and had a few players expected to take the next step and force their way into the lineup, and up until Christmas, the Sabres looked like a team ready to surprise. Going 21-11-5 entering the Christmas break. It seems the players may have had a bit too much egg-nog during the break, however, seeing as since the Christmas break the Sabres are 10-27-5 managing only 15 points over half a season. Certainly not a pretty sight and one that deflated all hopes for the team and it’s fans.
Result of Hot Take: Yeah this one is bad and is getting worse by the day, if this was done 2 months ago it’d be a great call, but instead the Sabres did Sabres things and will be looking at a top 10 pick yet again.
Prediction 10: The Anaheim Ducks will finish sub .500 and between 7th-9th worst in the league.
This one is a bit of an elaboration on the previous prediction of the Ducks and Kings missing the playoffs, I didn’t have much faith in the Ducks entering this season, I saw them as a team without a direction, and a team set to continue regressing, after an embarrassing sweep in the playoffs last year. They had a franchise-caliber goaltender in John Gibson and some promising rookies, but nothing to be overly optimistic about and I predicted that the Ducks would be due for a season that was better left forgotten.
Result of Hot Take: Hey finally one that seems like it’ll end up entirely correct The Ducks have two games remaining on their schedule if they win both they’ll be 35-37-10 which is sub-.500. They currently sit 7th worst in the league behind the Kings, Sabres, Rangers, Senators, Red Wings, and Devils. All 6 have games in hand on the Ducks, but as it stands, only the Rangers are a threat to move ahead of the Ducks, meanwhile, the Ducks sit only 2 points from passing the Oilers and Canucks, and 3 points from passing the Blackhawks. I think the Ducks will finish either 7th or 8th overall at this point in the season.
Prediction 11: The Tampa Bay Lightning will win the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup
I saw something really special in the Lightning entering this season, and that was before they were considered the likely landing spot for Erik Karlsson (Which for the sake of everyone else in the league didn’t come to fruition). But my goodness, I even underestimated these Lightning. The Bolts currently sit with 4 games remaining in their schedule, with a staggering 122 points and 59 wins. The Lightning sit at a +97 goal differential, which is a measly +38 from the next highest team (The Calgary Flames). Nikita Kucherov has 122 points. Simply put, the Lightning are really, really good.
Result of Hot Take: So far so good. The Lightning won the President’s trophy what seems like months ago, and are the favorites heading into the playoffs. As I said earlier in this article, the playoffs are an entirely different beast, but so is this Lightning team so if any team can live up to the hype, it’s gotta be them.
Next. Podcast- Season Winding Down. dark
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