Anaheim Ducks: What contract numbers does Ondrej Kase deserve?
The Anaheim Ducks have two restricted free agents left to sign before training camp starts next month, Ondrej Kase, and Nick Ritchie. Kase has been by far the more successful. What should his new contract be worth?
Say what you will about Anaheim Ducks General Manager Bob Murray’s external free agent signings this year. Whether you fall in the camp that is fearful they’ll end up in the every night lineup, or my camp that looks at them as nothing more than insurance policies, they have been a little head scratching.
When it comes to his internal signings Murray has hit the bulls-eye. Getting Adam Henrique locked up for the next six years, Brandon Montour on a two year “earn your paycheck” deal, and keeping John Gibson in a Ducks uniform for virtually his whole career were great signings.
These contracts set the Ducks up to be contenders both now and in the future. Even with all the signings the Ducks still have just under $9M left to stay under the cap. But there are two contracts that need to be sorted out. Nick Ritchie, and his speedy winger Ondrej Kase.
Diamond in the Rough
The 2014 NHL Draft looks to be a great one for the Ducks. Second-round pick Brandon Montour, as mentioned above, earned a two-year bridge deal. He has become one of the main four of the Ducks D core this season. Co-second-round selection, Marcus Pettersson looks to finally break through and be a shot of youth to the Ducks bottom pair.
The jury is still out on Nick Ritchie, especially since he is a former first-round (10th overall) selection, likely be on the ice for the Ducks opening night. Seventh round selection Ondrej Kase could be one of the team’s most important offensive weapons.
When a player is taken at the end of the draft, 205th overall its a coin flip to see what he will become. But the Ducks may have found an absolute gem. Kase has now played one-and-a-half full seasons for Anaheim totaling 119 games.
In that time, he has compiled a 25-28-53 stat line, including 20 goals last year. To further illustrate how good Kase is, he has just six points less than first-round selection Ritchie in six fewer games played to open their careers. Give Kase another 67 games and he skyrockets past Ritchie.
Kase has dangerous speed, incredible hands, a quick release, and generated quite the chemistry with pivot Adam Henrique. He missed some time due to injury last season and could have easily potted 25 goals if he had played the full 82 game season. This year I think he is capable of being a 30 goal scorer, and he is only 22 years old. Fans looking for Corey Perry’s goal replacement may have it in Kase but what will it take for the Ducks to retain the speedy Czech forward?
Stacking Up
Deciding a players worth is always a tricky business. Because considerations such as intangibles and team chemistry come into the equation but are not quantifiable. The easiest way to assess worth is to look at a player’s peers and make a judgement from there.
Kase came into this league in a forward heavy draft that featured the likes of; Leon Draisaitl, Sam Bennet, Dylan Larkin, and David Pastrnak. All of these players were first round selections but are still forwards from Kase’s class. The four are about his same age. To this point, the stats of these players including Kase look like this:
Draisaitl: Age 22 / GP 269 / 75-132-207 / Point per Game = .77
Bennet: Age 22 / GP 241 / 42-47-89 / Points per game = .37
Larkin: Age 22 / GP 242 / 56-84-140 / Points per game = .35
Pastrnak: Age 22 / GP 254 / 94-109-203 / Points per game = .80
Kase: Age 22 / GP 119 / 25-28-53 / Points per game = .45
This isn’t perfect due to the fact Kase has played more than 100 games less than all of the other players I listed. So if we extrapolate Kase’s stats he’d look like this:
Kase: GP 238 / 50-56-106 / Points per game = .45
That projection is just numbers based, not taking into account Kase’s. If he becomes a perennial 30 goal scorer those numbers are even higher. But if he remains at this level he is akin to Dylan Larkin and Sam Bennet. So how do the Ducks keep Kase in Anaheim?
Cash that Czech
Larkin just signed a new five year, $30M contract as he came off his entry-level contract (ELC). The Red Wings forward had his best season statistically last season compiling 63 points, after his first two years saw him gather 45 and 32 respectively. To me, his contract is too expensive for one really good season. Larkin should have had to prove he’s a consistent 60-70 point player before he earns this kind of cash.
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Bennet will play out the last year of his deal at $1.9M this upcoming season before he becomes an RFA in the summer of 2019. It remains to be seen what the Flames will do with their young center man.
Kase is coming off his ELC which was three years and about $700K. So what is fair to get Kase on board? I think the Ducks need to straddle the line between reward for the good play and pull the breaks on one good year. I am a Kase fan and think he can be a star for the Ducks.
With his center Henrique in tow for five more years, he’s even better. I need to see more than one about 40 point season before backing up the Brinks truck. So a contract for the Ducks should be four years, $11M. This works out to a cap hit of $2.75 per season.
The amount doesn’t brake the bank, shows the Ducks are rewarding his play and also says show us more before we pay you the big money. This contract would get Kase to age 26, an age where he would just be hitting his prime and also in line with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry’s expiring contracts.
It would allow the Ducks to give Kase a big payday if his stats warrant one, with big numbers coming off the books and the hope of an increasing cap ceiling. Signing Kase to this deal has everyone best interests at heart.
A deal at that amount gives the Ducks about $6M in cap relief for which they can use to extend Jakob Silfverberg this season or next summer and can let Nick Ritchie walk. Kase will be a key cog in the Ducks machine. Let’s hope that GMBM and Kase’s camp both can see that.