Scouting the Enemy: Anaheim Ducks vs. Edmonton Oilers

Mar 28, 2014; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defensemen Justin Schultz (19) watches the play against the Anaheim Ducks at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

1. In an effort to shore up the team defensively, the Oilers acquired Nikita Nikitin in the offseason from the Columbus Blue Jackets, signing him to a two-year, $9 million deal. The team also signed Mark Fayne to a four-year, $14.5 million deal in free agency. With Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz, and Jeff Petry, the Oilers were expected to be a better club defensively. However, the Oilers have allowed the second-most goals in the NHL (96), as only the Dallas Stars have allowed more goals. Is the chief concern with the team’s defense, goaltending, or a significant mixture of both?

Agustin: This is a loaded question. It really depends on who you ask. The easy answer is all of the above. Let’s start with the goaltending. The Oilers made a goalie coach change by firing Frederic Chabot and bringing in WHL Edmonton Oil Kings goalie consultant Dustin Schwartz back in late November. Chabot had been with the team since summer of 2009. Under his tenure, goalies Devan Dubnyk and Jason LaBarbera imploded last season, prompting a goalie carousel that included a brief stint by Mr. Universe himself, Ilya Bryzgalov. This move was largely seen as an overdue move. Since the change, Edmonton’s goalies have gone five games (not including Tuesday’s game against the Sharks) with an average SV% of 94.17% at 5-on-5. For comparison, in their first five games of the season (all losses), the SV% was 85.38%. Their goal differential has been even (seven for and seven against). The biggest problem in that stretch has been special teams, where the Oilers have allowed two goals against and scored two on the 12 penalties drawn on even strength play. The PK only allowed two goals on 11 penalties taken at 5-on-5. Eight of the 11 games in the losing streak were losses by one goal, with I believe four OT losses. And that’s just a quick dive into the stats. At the end of the day, both Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth are oldish goalies with little NHL experience that, at this stage of their careers, haven’t been able to establish themselves as starters.

The defense is also a big mess. Since the departure of Chris Pronger back in 2006, the team systematically disassembled their defense corps and never really rebuilt it. The current hope is that guys like Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Martin Marincin emerge as solid top four guys. As for the rest, it is an ugly situation. Probably the best decision general manager Craig MacTavish has made so far was giving Schultz just one year on his contract. There were legitimate fears early in the summer that Schultz would get money and term akin to the rest of the Oilers’ “core”. Schultz is still early in his NHL career, but he seems to be overvalued by the organization. MacTavish went so far as to say, the day the one year extension was announced, that he had “Norris trophy potential”. That comment has been a running gag around these lands ever since. Coach Dallas Eakins has played Schultz way too much: we have written extensively about it. Schultz has considerably more ice time than Fayne, who supposedly lacks the offensive talent of Schultz but has been a proven top pairing defenseman in New Jersey.

That last point brings me to the coach. He seems to have little time for players like Marincin and a lot of rope for Schultz. There is a clear double standard in that dressing room, and you have to wonder how much certain players resent it. The argument that the Oilers have been chasing games and therefore need to play their best offensive defenseman is weak because Schultz has been abysmal at both ends. Really, you need to stop pucks from going into your net before you can even start thinking about putting some of your own on the other side on defense.

As for Nikitin, the less is said about that contract, the better for all parties involved. He is here because of Scott Howson, and that is another example why so many in Oil Country are calling for a full house cleanup. Howson was let go from the Oilers before going to Columbus, and then he was recycled along with MacTavish. Petry and Ference are above average bottom three defenders, but they are often asked to punch high above their weight class. I wrote an article showing the difference in NHL games the defense group of Calgary had compared to Edmonton, and it was huge. Edmonton’s defense right now has one veteran on his last legs, one legit No. 2 or No. 3 in Fayne, a capable fourth or fifth defenseman in Petry, rookies Klefbom and Marincin, injury prone and chaos Nikitin, and total wildcard Schultz. The saddest part is that this is the best defense corps the Oilers have been able to muster since the official rebuild began in 2010.

As for the team defense, that is being blamed primarily on the lack of NHL centers on the team. There are really two of them, with Mark Arcobello and Leon Draisaitl doing their best. Arcobello would be a very good fourth center on a good team, but he gets deployed on the second line and gets crushed. There is no one down at the farm ready to step in beyond the fourth center position. This is all on MacTavish, who followed Oilers tradition by throwing rookie Draisaitl to the wolves right away. Then, he decided to stand pat and roll the dice with what he had in the off season.

Another issue is the coaching. As I discussed before, his ice time usage is more often than not head scratching. For about the first 15 games, Fayne was playing the fewest minutes of all defenders, and Schultz was playing the most on the whole team.

His defensive systems seem to leave too many gaps open in the area about four feet in front of the crease. His players are often caught puck watching and don’t know when to cover as the third man. The Oilers lead the league in giveaways. Steve Smith, another ex-Oiler turned coach, was finally let go last season in favor of a career defensive coach in Craig Ramsey. The hope is his work during the season will improve the team’s defensive fundamentals, as well as help with the young defenders’ development.

I guess to summarize, the Oilers’ defensive play is poor because:

• Their goaltending has failed spectacularly.
• Their center depth is kiddie pool grade.
• The sophomore coach seems to have trouble handling his personnel and teaching systems that work for the staff he has.
• The defensive corps is inexperienced and lacks top end talent.

I would say the biggest hole the team has right now is the center position. Start from there: center is the most important skater position because a good two-way center defends well, generates possession, and dictates offensive pace. If you have possession, your goalie doesn’t need to stand on his head. This is the easiest position to solve as well, because a good goalie would cost too much, and a top pairing defenseman would cost even more. A great goalie will help you a lot short term, but the team will eventually even out, just like Buffalo did with Ryan Miller. Corey Crawford has won the Stanley Cup without being great, but just solid enough with a great possession team in front of him.

Apr 2, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Edmonton Oilers left wing David Perron (57) reaches for the puck against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center. The Ducks defeated the Oilers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2. Despite the Oilers’ noted defensive woes, they aren’t a strong offensive club either. The Oilers have scored the fewest goals in the Western Conference (62), and combined with their defensive issues, the team has the worst goal differential in the Western Conference (-34) and 2^nd worst in the NHL overall (ahead of the Buffalo Sabres). No player on the Oilers has 10 goals or 20 points on the season, and that is a major reason why Edmonton is last in the NHL standings. What has been the biggest reason for the Oilers’ scoring woes? Also, which players are struggling most for the Oilers in the scoring department?

Agustin: Both guys who finished as top goal scorers last season are struggling mightily this time around. David Perron and Jordan Eberle had 28 goals last season, but right now they have five and six, respectively, and are on pace for 18 and 16. Nail Yakupov is the other big issue at forward. The Russian just can’t seem to find the net unless he cheats for offense. His defensive game has improved miles, but for a guy who is ticketed as a goal scorer, he is rather dry in that department. As for why these guys are struggling, I think it is because of their defensive issues. Despite secondary stats telling us they are close to trading goals with the opposition, their power play has been terrible, sitting at 27^th overall with a 12.9% efficiency. Last year they finished the season at 17%. You can see this is an ongoing issue for Dallas Eakins. Problems with the power play include a lack of a hard shot from the point and a really poor zone entry strategy.

Their shooting percentages as a team are just putrid: they are at 9.4% on the power-play and 6.6% at even strength. Their PDO (shot % + save %) at 5-on-5 is 96.8, although that can be explained more by the poor goaltending than by bad puck luck. The PDO on the power-play is 81.62, but that can easily be attributed to the fact they have allowed a league-high five shorthanded goals. But combine that PDO with their Corsi and Fenwick hovering at 50% no matter what adjustment you use (close, tied, trailing by 1 or 2), and you see why MacTavish comes out and says his team is better and has improved, even though the standings don’t show it. By those stats, the Oilers should be middle of the pack right now. The statistical evidence at first glance points more at just really poor goaltending than anything else. But the lack of offensive production from key players who have demonstrated that ability makes you think there is something else going on.

Another factor I discussed in that piece comparing the Calgary Flames defense was the offensive production by the blue line. The Oilers are getting squat in that department. They have Schultz, who is tied for 52nd among defensemen with two goals and tied for 54th with just nine points. For comparison, Calgary has three guys in the top 15 and Anaheim has two in the top 20. This goes in hand with the lack of power-play production.

My official position is that it’s the coach just losing the battles on line changes and ice time, as well as poor systems. I look at those secondary stats and all I can think of is that this team is just an outlier. I predict that these numbers will be far lower for the month of December, when all but one of their games are against the Western Conference. They only got their first win against the West against the Sharks on Sunday and are 1-13-4 for the season. This month will tell everyone, including their GM, who this team really is.

Apr 2, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks left wing Matt Beleskey (39) and Edmonton Oilers center Will Acton (41) fight in the first period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

3. The Oilers were heavily scrutinized during their recent 11-game losing streak, which was snapped on Sunday against the San Jose Sharks. There have been talks of another “rebuild”, and many feel that wholesale organizational changes that must happen if the Oilers are to take steps forward. In your mind, who in the organization is most responsible for the current state of the Oilers: general manager Craig MacTavish, head coach Dallas Eakins, or somebody else? Also, what do you believe is the best course of action for the Oilers currently: another rebuild or to ride this out?

Agustin: This topic has been discussed ad nauseam, both on our site and at Oil Country. I think I gave a partial answer in my previous answers. There is sort of a consensus that there needs to be house clearing.

Let’s review the current men at front office:

Kevin Lowe (POHO, or president of hockey operations, and co-vice chairman of Oilers Entertainment Group). This guy is part of the so called “boys on the bus”, a group of former Oilers who were part of the glory days in Edmonton and hung out with current owner Daryl Kats while in their youth. As incredible as all this may seem, it is all known facts: no gossip, no speculation. Kevin Lowe retired in 1998 as a player, became an assistant coach of the Oilers the same year, and became the coach one year later. One year after that, he was promoted to manager, and he hired another boy on the bus, MacTavish, as head coach of the Oilers. Note that neither man really had any experience at the positions they were given. Back then, the team was owned by an investors group from Edmonton (EIG): Mr. Katz had no stake on the team. Fast forward to 2006, and the team makes the playoffs for the last time, going on a miracle run all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals after squeaking into the playoffs. That team had a world class defender in Pronger and had acquired a great goaltender in Dwayne Roloson mid-season. Their center depth was solid with capable veterans. The Oilers from 1994 to 2008 were a budget team, kind of like the Nashville Predators have been.

After that run, it was the beginning of the end, with Pronger requesting a trade for reasons still not entirely clear, although he has always said it was for his family. After that, the heart and soul of the team, Ryan Smyth, was traded over a disagreement on a contract extension that amounted to a few hundred thousand dollars. The Oilers tried to retool up until 2008-2009, when they missed the playoffs again. Daryl Katz bought the team, Kevin Lowe was promoted to POHO and brought in Steve Tambellini as general manager, who dismissed MacTavish (although it is widely believed it was MacT who said he was done). Pat Quinn was brought in along with associate coach Tom Renney for the 2009-2010 season. After a dreadful run, the organization officially declared it was time for a rebuild, laid down their strategy of building through the draft, traded assets, and tanked. They were talking about a three to five year time table until a return to the playoffs and yearly contender status. The team tanked again in 2010-2011, then again in 2011-2012.

That cost Tom Renney his job, despite the fact that secondary stats suggested a very young team was finally trending upwards. The lockout-shortened season saw Ralph Krueger promoted to from associate coach to head coach, and the team finished 25^th despite only facing Western Conference teams. Secondary stats took a small step back, but all things considered, the coach did a good job. Schultz and Yakupov had decent campaigns, with Yakupov finishing first in rookie scoring and Schultz finishing 7^th in Calder Trophy voting. That spring, Steve Tambellini was let go in the middle of a contract extension signed just a year earlier. I forgot to mention that during this time, Scott Howson had been fired as assistant GM in 2007, and both he and MacTavish were brought back in different executive roles in the summer of 2012.

Tambellini’s replacement turned out to be MacTavish, again a man with no experience at the position. One of his first moves was to give Ralph Krueger a Skype call and fire him. He then went on to hire Eakins, a guy with zero experience at his new position. Do you see a trend going on here? So Dallas is brought in along with his friend Will Acton, a one-time Oilers player who had been working with Eakins. Player like Schultz and Yakupov regressed drastically under Eakins. And the team ends the season 27^th overall. This time though, the Oilers had plenty of valid excuses with injuries at the start of the season to their two centers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Gagner), plus the spectacular implosion of their goaltending and an injury to Taylor Hall early in the season. Keep in mind that in their infinite wisdom, Kevin Lowe decided to hire a rookie GM, and the rookie GM decided to hire a rookie coach for a team whose core was still very young and would have been better served by continuity. Hilariously enough, MacTavish referred to this fact time and again during his state of the union address this past weekend when defending his own coaching hire.

Finally, last season, Kelly Buchberger and Steve Smith, both former boys on the bus, were dismissed from the coaching staff after serving since 2008 and 2010, respectively. Kelly has been with the organization in one capacity or another since 2007 and remains employed in a different role. Smith was hired as assistant coach by another terrible team, the Carolina Hurricanes. Freddy Chabot should have been in that purge as well. Why he survived until late November is a mystery.

During all this time, few changes have been made to the scouting staff, both pro and amateur. Their record is something to cringe about. The point was made this weekend that since 2006, only two guys are right now playing with the big club: Jeff Petry and Tyler Pitlick. Basically, only Petry is an NHL regular. That is one player out of 28 between 2006 and 2010 selected outside of the first round (the rule seems to be to wait five years before properly evaluating a draft year). If you look closely at the draft history of the Oilers since the early 2000’s, it has to be one of the worst there is. The GM admitted on Friday that poor drafting was indeed undermining current efforts to become competitive. You just can’t win by just chasing free agents.

MacTavish asked for patience on Friday, saying in so many words that the last rebuild had failed and that this was his vision and he needed time. Basically, he said this was the second year of the rebuild of the rebuild. For a fan base that has been patient and sold out the arena for eight years in a row and counting, that was a kick in the sack. Patience has officially run out in Oil Country.

The one ray of light is that Bob Nicholson, former head of hockey Canada, has been hired as vice chairman of the Oiler Entertainment Group, and Craig MacTavish sad on Friday that the whole organization, top to bottom was under review by Nicholson.

So as you can see, Daryl Katz and the boys on the bus have a profound loyalty to each other. Qualifications and ability to do the job be damned, these men have each other’s backs. Until Katz decides that his longtime friends are just not able to bring him the Stanley Cup, then we will not see a change in culture. The history of Oilers management since the turn of the century has been one of incompetence, nepotism and arrogance. Just look at the choices in personnel: Pat Quinn, may he rest in peace, was not fit to be a head coach in the NHL anymore. Yet he brought quality people in Tom Renney. Then Tom Renney brought in Ralph Krueger. Both men were dismissed by the boys on the bus, and one is now the Head of Hockey Canada and the other the Chairman of Southampton FC in the English Premiere League. Let’s look at Kevin Lowe’s hirers: Howson was given the boot after failing with the Columbus Blue Jackets, MacTavish was an AHL coach and sports commentator before being recycled by Lowe, and Tambellini is a scout for your Anaheim Ducks.

Reading all of this, it is hard not to pin a good chunk of the blame for such a terrible playoff drought on the shoulders of Kevin Lowe and his companions. Keep in mind, all of what I wrote are just facts: there is no speculation, just what actually happened.

So, is finding Kevin Lowe and kicking him in the nuts the answer?

Well, YES. But not just that: the Oilers have to clear house, do their due diligence, and hire professionals who have a good track record in their organizations. If you are bringing in a rookie GM, make sure it is someone who has been in an NHL front office for a while and has proven himself. Bringing a rookie coach for a very young team should have never happened. Bring in a guy with experience who has a proven record of winning. For example, Dan Bylsma is available. Bring in scouts with a history of success: what is Dave Semenko doing in the pro scouting department? What are other ex-Oilers like Frank Musil doing in the amateur side? They have failed, time and time again. Is there really a need for a President of Hockey Operations? Just get a general manager: plenty of teams make due. Kevin Lowe and the boys on the bus must go; otherwise, you are asking the architect who designed the crumbling foundation to fix it. If Katz loves them so much, make them special Oilers “Dust Fairies” or something, but keep them away from the hockey operations. The fact that both Renney and Krueger were let go but Buchberger and Smith remained is pretty telling of how this organization makes its personnel decisions.

Okay, so they are all gone tomorrow. Now what?

Sadly, the best thing to do, in my opinion, is to ride it out. It makes no sense to sell low at this point: the best players are having tough times, and the asking prices for acquiring help are predatory, to say the least. Right now, there are 29 general managers circling MacTavish, waiting to pry one of the valuable, costly first round picks plus Eberle. The season is statistically improbable to save: the best thing now is to showcase the occasional farm guy and wait for Nicholson’s evaluation while really, tanking for a shot at Connor McDavid. If he is the generational talent he is made to be, then the Oilers should definitively want that. Plus, he is a center. Even Jack Eichel, another generational talent, should be helpful to further the cause. It would be stupid to try and make moves to improve four or five spots in the standings. Thankfully, MacTavish said as much on Friday, so we are all gearing up for a long winter here. Now as for untouchable players in Edmonton, Wayne Gretzky got traded, so there is no such thing. Everyone should be on the market for the right price.

It is so exhausting and annoying to know that your team is out of the playoffs by the first quarter of the season, for the forever time in a row. The Oilers will probably get destroyed tonight. I give it a 6-1 for the Ducks.

Apr 6, 2014; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Anaheim Ducks forward Corey Perry (10) is chased by Edmonton Oilers defensemen Oscar Klefbom (84) during the first period at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

This was an incredible set of answers by Agustin. I can’t thank him enough for taking his time to give such thorough, insightful answers regarding the state of the Oilers: I know I learned a lot from this. Check out the work he and his staff do at Oil on Whyte, and continue to use Pucks of a Feather for your Ducks coverage! Gear up for the game tonight at 7:00 PT.

Jason Byun is the editor for Pucks of a Feather. He can be found on Twitter. For more Anaheim Ducks coverage, follow Pucks of a Feather on Twitter or like us on Facebook.